Anthropic’s blockbuster IPO just got a little less blockbuster. Investors now reportedly expect the Claude maker to list at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, down from earlier talk of $2 trillion.
From $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, maybe less
Anthropic is positioning for a Nasdaq listing anticipated in November 2026, after the US midterm elections. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are among the underwriters.
Early conversations with bankers and investors floated a figure of approximately $2 trillion. That number would potentially have topped SpaceX’s upcoming listing, which is estimated at $1.77 trillion in June 2026.
Recent reports suggest that ambition has cooled. Investor expectations now sit at around $1.5 trillion, and the research indicates a figure at or below that level is likely.
Anthropic’s last private valuation was $965 billion, set after its Series H round in May 2026. Even the reduced target would mark a substantial step up from that mark.
What the numbers actually show
A leaked prospectus offers a rare look under the hood. In 2025, Anthropic reportedly generated about $4.6 billion in revenue, a 12-fold jump.
The same document shows an operating loss of $8.06 billion. The net loss was far larger, at roughly $42 billion.
Most of the net loss was driven by non-cash accounting adjustments.
In Q3 2026, Anthropic reported revenue of $16.8 billion, up 45% from $11.6 billion in Q2.
The company reported adjusted profitability, and gross margins reached 85%.
The $518 billion question
Anthropic has locked in $518 billion in long-term commitments to cloud and compute infrastructure. Those obligations do not shrink if growth slows.
Investors are asking whether future revenue will grow fast enough to comfortably cover more than half a trillion dollars in promised spending.
What this means for the IPO and the AI trade
For Anthropic, the practical stakes are about pricing and timing. A lower valuation target could make the offering easier to sell and leave room for post-listing gains. Pushing too hard on price risks a weak debut that sours sentiment.
The November window adds its own variable. Listing after the midterms may help Anthropic avoid election-driven volatility, but it also gives investors several more months of data.
If SpaceX lists near its estimated $1.77 trillion in June 2026, it will set a reference point for how public markets treat mega-cap private companies entering the market.
For investors weighing the eventual listing, the key metrics to track are straightforward. Watch whether quarterly revenue growth stabilizes or keeps slowing from the 45% pace. Watch whether gross margins hold near 85% as usage scales. And watch how management frames the $518 billion compute obligation against its revenue trajectory.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.