In late September, the Golden State Warriors agreed to a two-year, $116 million extension with star guard Stephen Curry.In doing so, they punted on the potential of entering the 2027 offseason with more than $100 million of salary-cap space.
The Warriors weren’t done handing out money there, either. On Saturday, they came to terms with Brandin Podziemski on a five-year, $110 million rookie-scale extension.
Podziemski averaged only 13.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists last season, so some NBA fans were surprised that he landed a nine-figure deal. However, that total dollar figure is largely a reflection of the rising NBA salary cap. Fans need to recalibrate their understanding of contracts accordingly.
Perhaps the bigger surprise is that the Warriors were willing to further slice into their potential cap space next summer to ink Podziemski to an extension now. But as it turns out, they didn’t sacrifice much flexibility with his new contract, which likely explains why they were willing to strike now.
That trade-off might wind up being a win-win for both sides.
Why The Warriors Extended Podziemski Now
Had Podziemski not signed an extension by Oct. 19, he would have become a restricted free agent next offseason. The Warriors would have had a $17.0 million free-agent cap hold on their books for him until he re-signed with them, signed elsewhere or they renounced his free-agent rights.
The official numbers on Podziemski’s deal aren’t available yet, but if the Warriors structured it with standard 8% annual raises, it will begin at just under $19.0 million. That means he’ll only eat up $2 million more of the Warriors’ projected cap space than he would have as a restricted free agent.
The Warriors could have looked at restricted free agency as an opportunity to squeeze Podziemski, as they’d have the right to match any offer sheet that he signed with another team. However, a handful of teams are projected to have a significant amount of cap space next offseason and could have put the screws to the Warriors.
While Podziemski might not seem worthy of a nine-figure contract based on his averages to date, he’s poised to post career-best numbers this year. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are both recovering from torn ACLs to begin the season, while Kristaps Porziņģis is currently waylaid with a mysterious health ailment. That’s almost $90 million on the shelf for Golden State to start the year.
Warriors star Stephen Curry told reporters at media day that he feels healthy coming into the season, but he missed 39 games last year, largely due to “runner’s knee” that has created a “new normal” for him. While Podziemski has never averaged more than 28.5 minutes per game through his first three NBA seasons, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr might have little choice but to smash that number due to the availability concerns across the rest of the roster.
Podziemski has shot north of 37% from three-point range in each of his three seasons even though his volume ticked up from 3.2 attempts per game as a rookie to 5.0 this past season. He grades out well defensively, too, although the Warriors are vulnerable on that end of the floor whenever Podziemski and Curry play alongside one another. At only 6’4” and 205 pounds, Podziemski doesn’t have prototypical 2-guard size.
Despite that, he’ll have a chance to make a major impact this season, particularly until Butler and/or Moody return.
“Teammates and coaches believe he’s playing with more confidence,” Nick Friedell of The Athletic reported after the first week of training camp earlier this month. “They believe he’s going to take more open 3s when he gets the chance and that he’ll try to get to the foul line more this season, something the Warriors will need without Jimmy Butler on the floor.”
If Podziemski does make a leap this season in the absence of Butler and Moody, his $110 million extension might look like a steal in retrospect.
Making Dollars And Sense Of Podziemski’s Extension
Even if Podziemski does top out as a high-end sixth man rather than a locked-in starter, it’s important to keep the larger league context in mind.
The non-taxpayer mid-level exception is projected to start at more than $16 million in 2027-28. Podziemski’s extension will be worth more than that, but not significantly so. According to Spotrac, he’s projected to take up between 10.8% to 11.7% of the salary cap each year of his new deal.
The raw dollar figure may be shocking, but again, that’s a byproduct of the NBA’s economics at large. The salary cap is now projected to land at $176 million in 2027-28. In 2015-16, it was $70 million flat.
Within the next decade, a handful of players will likely be able to sign a half-billion-dollarcontract. Nine-figure deals will become commonplace. From that perspective, Podziemski’s extension shouldn’t raise eyebrows at all.
Had the Warriors held off on signing Curry to a new deal until next offseason, they might have been inclined to punt on Podziemski’s extension as well to maximize their potential cap space. But once they signed Curry to an extension—particularly one that landed at roughly $10 million less than his max salary—they had less incentive to hold off on Podziemski.
That isn’t to say this contract is risk-free for the Warriors. If Podziemski doesn’t take a leap in the next few years, this might wind up being a slight overpay. But he has a golden opportunity in front of him this season due to the Warriors’ injuries, and he could parlay that into a career year. By signing him now, the Warriors might be hedging their bets to avoid getting into a protracted standoff in restricted free agency next summer.
Even if Podziemski does put up career-best numbers this season, there’s no guarantee that he would have cashed in as a restricted free agent next offseason. Teams are often reluctant to even extend hefty offer sheets since they must keep that cap space open through the first week of free agency. If the incumbent team matches, they have to pivot to a Plan B after most of the free-agent board has been picked clean.
That’s why this could wind up being a win-win for the Warriors and Podziemski. The Warriors might have locked in Podziemski on a relative discount if he’s about to have a career year. Podziemski secured generational wealth in case he suffers an injury this season or fell victim to the musical-chairs game that is restricted free agency.
And the Warriors didn’t meaningfully cut into their cap space next offseason, so they’ll still have plenty of flexibility to pursue upgrades alongside Curry and Podziemski moving forward.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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This article was originally published on Forbes.com