With global temperature rise set to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, urgent and stringent cuts to greenhouse emissions are needed to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot and to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century, a new report released by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on Wednesday has found.
Coming ahead of COP31 in Turkey next month, the “Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return” has looked at the ‘lowest possible’ 1.5°C overshoot scenario, in which peak warming by around the middle of the century is limited to 1.7-1.8°C and global temperature rise returns to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with a 50% chance. It also finds that if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter.
If all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are delivered and similar efforts continue, warming will still be limited to 2.6°C this century.
UNEP said these outcomes were worse than last year’s projections due to the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions, adding new NDCs submitted since last year’s report had made a negligible difference for these projections.
“Even in the most optimistic scenario, where all NDCs plus additional net-zero targets are achieved, global warming would only be limited to 2.1°C in this century. Without urgent action, keeping peak warming below 1.7 to 1.8°C will quickly become impossible.
Every five years of CO2 emissions at current levels pushes peak warming up by around 0.1°C,” the report said.
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However, to get onto this most optimum pathway of 1.7 to 1.8°C, an aggressive global push is required, the report stresses, adding global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to be reduced by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 – all relative to 2025 levels.
“By contrast, the full implementation of NDCs would only reduce emissions by 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels,” the report said, stressing the world remains behind targets.
“The lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario creates a need for the removal from the atmosphere and permanent storage of roughly 320 gigatonnes of CO2 (equivalent to around eight years of 2024’s global CO2 emissions) over the course of this century.
However, socioeconomic and technological challenges make the chances of achieving this uncertain,” it adds.
At the same time, the report says there remain opportunities for action, with renewable energy booming and the supply from coal and oil growing slower than projected.
Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP said every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks.
“This includes the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year. So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible,” she said.
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Reacting to the projections on Wednesday, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell said the world still has tools to change course.
“Renewables are now the cheapest source of new electricity in most of the world. Solar power deployment has grown seven times faster than expected a decade ago and climate policies are already showing results. The emissions gap is now a leadership gap and the world is running out of time and excuses to close it,” he said, calling for the G20 to lead on climate commitments and for governments to accelerate clean energy and electrification across every sector, adopting credible roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuel, cut methane emissions and reverse deforestation, among other key measures.