There's one number ahead of Wisconsin's huge showdown with No. 16 USC that has me disproportionately concerned.
It's not Trojans' quarterback Jayden Maiava's 2,045 passing yards or 20 total touchdowns.
It's not USC's No. 17-ranked total offense that produces 462.2 yards per game. It's not the 15 sacks the Trojans have already notched, or the 882 combined rushing yards their top two tailbacks have already gobbled up.
Those are all significant areas of concern, of course. This USC offense is no joke and the passing game in particular is arguably the best in the Power Four.
But I'm more concerned with a certain situational statistic that right now, Wisconsin appears to be on the wrong end of.
USC is one of the best teams in the country at staying on the field. Their offensive third down conversion rate of 51% ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten and No. 14 nationally. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's defensive third-down conversion rate of 38% is a meager 75th nationally. Last week, UCLA converted 13-of-20 third down tries (65%) and started 8-of-10 on third down conversions.
Wisconsin must get off the field
Despite bottling up the Bruins' vaunted rushing attack, Wisconsin still let UCLA get into third-and-manageables; UCLA's average third down distance to go was 6.1 yards. The Badgers allowed Bruins' quarterback Ty Dieffenbach to complete 8-of-13 passes for 150 yards on third down alone, while UCLA ran the ball seven times on third down and five of those handoffs moved the sticks.
How does Wisconsin improve on third down? Early-down success is often the key.
“We just gotta be great on first and second down," defensive lineman Charles Perkins said after the Badgers' loss in Pasadena. “I feel like we stopped the run pretty well…now, it’s third down, let’s stop the pass too though.”
While that's certainly easier said than done against this electrifying USC offense, early downs are going to be a battle and a huge catalyst for whoever wins this game. The Trojans' offense has an early downs EPA (expected points added) that ranks No. 16 in the country. The Badgers' defensive early downs EPA, meanwhile, ranks No. 5 in the nation. Translation? USC's offense is quite good at finding success on first and second down. The Badgers' defense, conversely, is even better at limiting it.
USC has an extremely balanced offense; according to TeamRankings.com, the Trojans run the ball on exactly 50% of their offensive plays through seven games. Mike Tressel's defense is going to have its hands full. But a surefire way to get the Trojans off the field? Get them into third-and-longs consistently.
Add us as a preferred source on Google