BRAZIL · POLITICS
Key Facts
- —The poll Ipespe gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.7% and Lula 47.3% of valid votes.
- —The survey 1,500 phone interviews from 6 to 8 October, released Saturday.
- —Margin of error Plus or minus 2.6 points at 95.45% confidence.
- —The campaign Voters rate Flávio’s social-media campaign better, 47% to 32%.
- —The runoff Flávio Bolsonaro faces President Lula on Sunday, 25 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Lula a 12.5% chance (11 October, 12:58 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 88% and Kalshi at 87% (Lula: 13% and 13%), as of 11 October, 1:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The latest national survey since the first round shows the conservative senator ahead and winning the media battle.
A new Ipespe poll gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.7% of valid votes against 47.3% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The Brazilian polling institute released it on Saturday, 10 October, two weeks before the 25 October presidential runoff.
It is the latest major survey since the 4 October first round to put Flávio in front. For US investors in Brazilian stocks, ADRs and the real, it confirms a race that markets already price as his to lose.
What the Ipespe Poll Found
Ipespe ran the survey with Abrapel, the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers, as the first round of a weekly campaign tracker. Interviewers reached 1,500 voters aged 16 and over by telephone from Tuesday, 6 October, to Thursday, 8 October.
Asked to choose between the two names, 49% picked Flávio and 44% picked Lula. Another 5% said they would vote blank or spoil the ballot, and 3% were undecided.
The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points either way. The poll is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Brazil’s election authority, under protocol BR-00933/2026.
Among the 88% who say they will certainly vote, Flávio’s lead widens slightly. There he takes 53.1% of valid votes against 46.9% for Lula.
Who Are the Two Candidates
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro from the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022.
Lula, 80, leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT) and has been president since January 2023. He is seeking a fourth term.
Where Each Candidate Leads
The map is sharply split. Lula leads 63% to 29% in the poorer Northeast, while Flávio leads 63% to 30% in the South.
In the populous Southeast, home to São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, Flávio is ahead 52% to 40%. Evangelicals back him 61% to 30%, while women favour Lula 49% to 44%.
Campaign, Corruption and Trump
Voters think Flávio is winning the media battle. They rate his TV and radio campaign better by 43% to 34%, and his WhatsApp presence by 44% to 30%.
The issue most cited for the first-round vote was “corruption and the crisis at the Supreme Court,” at 24%. The economy, jobs and prices came next with 17%.
“Sovereignty and Trump’s attitudes” was the main issue for 6% of voters overall. Among Lula’s first-round voters it rose to 13%, ahead of the economy at 11% in that group.
Lula’s government is approved by 43% and disapproved by 50%. Some 53% call the economy bad or very bad.
How It Compares With Other Polls
Other post-first-round surveys look similar. Datafolha put Flávio on 52% of valid votes, AtlasIntel on 52.8% and PoderData/Aya on 53%.
The news site Poder360 said Ipespe’s numbers confirm the PoderData/Aya result. Money Times listed BTG Pactual/Nexus, PoderData and Futura polls for Tuesday, 13 October, and Quaest for Wednesday, 14 October.
What It Means for You
US funds holding Brazilian shares, and NYSE-listed firms such as Petrobras, Vale and Itaú, are exposed to the runoff. A steady Flávio lead supports current market bets; a Lula rebound would test them.
The poll also shows that relations with Washington remain a campaign theme. The winner will set Brazil’s response to US tariffs and its stance between the United States and China.
What Prediction Markets Say
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 87.9% · Lula 12.5% (US$180 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 87% · Lula 13%
As of 11 October, 1:20 pm ET (18:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
On Polymarket, with about US$180 million traded on the election, bets gave Lula 12.5% at 12:58 p.m. ET on Sunday. Its margin market put a Flávio win by 4 to 8 points at 49%, the band that matches Ipespe’s 5.4-point gap.
On Kalshi, which US regulators at the CFTC oversee, bets gave Flávio 87% and Lula 13% at 11:07 a.m. ET.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The fieldwork ended on 8 October, so it predates Saturday’s endorsement of Flávio by Paraná governor Ratinho Junior. It also predates the court order suspending a Lula campaign ad.
Ipespe itself notes that polls cannot fully capture abstention, which can decide a close race.
What Comes Next
Monday, 12 October, is a national holiday in Brazil. New national polls are due on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Ipespe bills its tracker as weekly.
Brazilians vote on Sunday, 25 October. A five-point poll lead two weeks out is not a result, and the race can still move.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Ipespe poll show?
It gives Flávio Bolsonaro 52.7% of valid votes and Lula 47.3%. Including blank votes and undecided voters, it is 49% to 44%.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes exclude blank ballots, spoiled ballots and undecided voters. Brazil’s electoral court declares the winner on this basis.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula is on Sunday, 25 October. Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time.
Why does this matter to US investors?
Brazilian shares and the real have moved on expectations of a Flávio win. Each new poll feeds those expectations before the vote.
Sources: Ipespe/Abrapel, Tracking da Campanha, Round 1, 10 October 2026; Ipespe/Abrapel full report (PDF); Poder360; Money Times, poll calendar; Money Times, Datafolha; Money Times, AtlasIntel (all accessed 11 October 2026).