Lula Hits Rival Over Trump in 23 Oct Debate

BRAZIL · ELECTION

The Brazil final debate on Friday 23 October 2026 saw President Lula accuse his rival Flávio Bolsonaro of fawning over US President Donald Trump to get Brazil taxed. It came two days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff on Sunday 25 October, which recent Brazil election polls show as a near tie, according to O Globo.

TV Globo hosted the debate in Rio de Janeiro, scheduled to start at 9:20 p.m. Brasília time, ahead of the Brazil runoff date of Sunday 25 October. Bettors on Brazil election odds markets lean toward Flávio, the conservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula is the left-wing incumbent.

Brazil Election Data Room

Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%

41 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.

We previewed the format in Globo Debate Airs Friday Oct 23 With Tralli, and this report covers what was said, what fact-checkers found and what it means for US readers. The debate followed a clash on Band television on Sunday 18 October that, O Globo said, went down badly with voters.

What Happened at the Brazil Final Debate

Journalist César Tralli moderated, and the opening block put questions on Brazil’s regions, drawn by lot, while the last block was open to any topic. At the start each candidate could speak only twice per theme, a rule O Globo said held back the sharpest exchanges for a while.

O Globo reported that both men cut back on personal attacks compared with the Band debate, although the free-topic block returned to harsh exchanges. Lula pressed Flávio on an island property in Angra dos Reis under Federal Police inquiry and on bank secrecy, while Flávio cited Lula’s corruption convictions, later annulled by the Supreme Court.

Lula Ties Flávio Bolsonaro to Trump Tariffs

Answering Flávio’s question about the government and farming, Lula said that when his opponent “was licking up to Trump to get Brazil taxed” he was not worried, SBT News reported. The Portuguese word was “lambendo”, literally “licking”, and O Globo carried the same remark.

Lula added that he was not “born afraid of a frown” and that if Trump does not want to buy from Brazil he will sell elsewhere. He also said his government opened 700 new markets, and Globo’s fact-check desk counted 707 farm markets opened since 2023.

The sources reviewed carry no reply from Flávio to the Trump remark, only his jibe asking whether Lula or Google governs Brazil. On 1 July Flávio filed a document with the US trade representative asking for a 180-day delay of planned 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, and Lula answered on 2 July that this was an act of “traitors of the homeland”, IstoÉ reported, as covered in Bolsonaro Asks Trump to Delay Brazil Tariffs Until After the Vote.

Milei and Argentina Enter the Argument

Lula asked whether Flávio wants to copy the model of Argentine President Javier Milei and cited Argentine poverty. Flávio defended Milei, saying he “had to fix the bad things you left there”, SBT News reported.

Globo’s fact-check desk rated Lula’s poverty point as fact. Argentina’s statistics office INDEC put poverty at 40.1% when Milei took office, a peak of 52.9% in early 2024 and 32.3% in early 2026, up from 28.2%.

The Nine Fingers Moment

Flávio told Lula it is no use if “you give with one hand and take away with nine fingers”, a remark about taxes that echoed the finger Lula says he lost at 17 in a factory accident. Lula demanded an apology, saying he would not allow “a militiaman” to call him “nine fingers”, and Flávio apologised on air, Agência Brasil reported.

Lula had himself called Flávio a militiaman, an insult that earned Flávio a right of reply, which he used to talk about animal welfare, O Globo reported. A panel of O Globo columnists later gave Lula an average of 2.7 and Flávio 2.4 on a scale of 1 to 5, and several named the remark as one of Flávio’s worst moments.

Security Clash Over a Child’s Death

In the security block Lula pointed to the mother of a five-year-old girl killed in Rio de Janeiro state in 2021, who sat in the audience as a guest of his campaign. He asked why Flávio, as a lawyer, had defended the military police officer accused of the shooting when the case reached the Superior Court of Justice, O Globo reported.

Flávio called the death a tragedy during a shoot-out and said the officer has not even been tried, adding that he trusts the officer was not the shooter. He also mistakenly addressed the mother by her daughter’s name, which O Globo’s columnists listed among his slips.

What Fact-Checkers Found

Globo’s Fato ou Fake desk rated as fake Flávio’s defence of his father’s 2021 remark about breathlessness, finding that the video he posted on Instagram during the debate was an edited version with 30 seconds cut from the livestream of 18 March 2021. It also noted that vaccination in Brazil had begun on 17 January 2021, contradicting his claim that no vaccine existed.

Lula said Brazil’s trade surplus reached “almost R$85 billion” (about US$16.9 billion at the central bank rate of 23 October), and his campaign told Globo he mixed up currencies. The desk noted that the government forecasts a 2026 surplus of US$84.4 billion, with US$62.4 billion recorded from January to September.

O Globo found that Flávio announced pledges outside his government plan, including e-sports in student games and refinancing charity-hospital debts through the state bank Caixa. On household debt Lula said he had already sent a similar plan to the Senate and cited a R$15 billion (US$3.0 billion) relief operation for 4.5 million people, Agência Brasil reported.

What It Means for You

For US readers the Brazil final debate shows Brazil’s choice being framed around Trump, with Lula presenting new export markets as his answer to US tariffs. The additional 25% US duty on Brazilian goods, in force since 22 July, exempts coffee, beef and iron ore, BDO reported, and our report Coffee and Iron Ore Escape the New 25% US Tariff on Brazil covers the list, so the vote matters to importers and Brazil-focused investors.

The platforms also differ on state companies, since Agência Brasil reports that Lula’s plan opposes privatising Petrobras, Embrapa and the post office while Flávio’s would restart the national privatisation programme. That contrast matters to holders of Petrobras shares and bonds, and Milei’s comments on the campaign are in our report Milei Accuses Lula of Machismo on 20 October.

Our guides Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained and Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s Runoff Rival? give the background on the candidates. Visitors can check our Brazil Geopolitics Explained 2026 guide and city guides for São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

What Is Not Known

It is not known whether the debate moved undecided voters, because Datafolha and Quaest were due to publish new polls on Saturday evening that O Globo says only partly capture it. Their previous readings, 47% to 46% and 45% to 44% in Flávio’s favour, were within the 2-point margin of error.

The sources reviewed carry no reply from Flávio to the Trump remark, and no audience figures for the broadcast. The Federal Police inquiry into the island property and the case of the girl’s death are unresolved, so those exchanges remain claims.

TV Globo’s own transcript could not be opened, so quotes come from SBT News, O Globo, CNN Brasil and Agência Brasil. The fact-check ratings come from Globo’s own desk.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro about a 79.7% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (24 October, 5:36 a.m. ET). The Brazil Presidential Election event has drawn about US$194.2 million in bets, with about US$26.2 million on the Flávio contract and US$29.5 million on the Lula contract.

These prices are bets, not polls, and they do not show how the debate played with voters. Live prices are on our odds page.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

Frequently Asked Questions

When was the Brazil final debate held?

TV Globo held it on Friday 23 October 2026 in Rio de Janeiro, two days before the runoff. It was scheduled to start at 9:20 p.m. Brasília time and was moderated by César Tralli.

What did Lula say about Trump in the debate?

He said that when his rival was licking up to Trump to get Brazil taxed, he was not worried, and that he would sell elsewhere if Trump will not buy. SBT News and O Globo reported the remark, and the sources reviewed carry no reply from Flávio.

What was the nine fingers controversy?

Flávio said Lula gives with one hand and takes away with nine fingers, a reference to the finger Lula lost in a factory accident. Lula demanded an apology and Flávio gave it on air.

Did fact-checkers find false claims?

Globo’s Fato ou Fake desk rated claims from both candidates as fake, including Flávio’s edited video of his father and Lula’s claim that Jair Bolsonaro’s government created online betting in 2022. It rated others as fact, including Lula’s point on Argentine poverty.

What does the debate mean for US readers?

It shows Trump tariffs and Argentina’s Milei shaping a vote that matters to importers and Brazil-focused investors. Our odds page tracks the market view until the runoff on Sunday 25 October.

Sources: SBT News, 24 October 2026; O Globo, 24 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 24 October 2026; g1 Fato ou Fake, 23 October 2026; CNN Brasil, 24 October 2026; Agência Brasil on government plans, 23 October 2026; O Globo Pulso, 24 October 2026; Poder360, 19 October 2026; IstoÉ, 2 July 2026; BDO, 24 July 2026; Central Bank of Brazil, PTAX rate of 23 October 2026.

Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error

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