Key Facts
- Ibovespa closed Tuesday at 206,888, down 1.04% in the first session after Monday’s holiday, while the real weakened 0.81% to 5.0273 per US dollar
- US inflation September US consumer prices are due at 09:30 BRT, with economists expecting 3.6% a year against 3.4% in August
- Services survey IBGE’s August services report is due at 09:00 BRT, with the previous year-on-year reading at 0.9%
- Business confidence the October reading is due at 11:00 BRT, with a forecast of 44.0 against 44.9 before
- Prediction markets Polymarket prices a 25 basis-point Selic cut at 89.5% for the November decision (US$56,879 traded, read overnight on 13 October)
Today’s Focus
Brazil’s market opens Wednesday after its first session in a week ended with the Ibovespa down 1.04% at 206,888. Two data releases will test that mood: IBGE’s August services survey at 09:00 BRT and US consumer prices at 09:30 BRT.
Economists expect US inflation to climb to 3.6% a year in September from 3.4%, which would push Treasury yields higher and weigh on emerging-market currencies. A hot number could extend the real’s slide, since the currency already lost 0.81% on Tuesday.
At home, the services report is the main gauge of whether demand is cooling enough for the central bank to keep cutting the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate. Business confidence follows at 11:00 BRT.
What matters today. Whether US inflation and Brazilian services data point the same way will set the tone for rate-sensitive B3 names at the open.
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Today’s Economic Events
9 am BRT
Brazil — Services Survey (Aug, MoM): no forecast published
9 am BRT
Brazil — Services Survey (Aug, YoY): previous 0.9%
9:30 am BRT
United States — Inflation Rate (Sep, YoY): forecast 3.6%, previous 3.4%
9:30 am BRT
United States — Inflation Rate (Sep, MoM): forecast 0.6%, previous 0.4%
9:30 am BRT
United States — Core Inflation Rate (Sep, YoY): forecast 2.5%, previous 2.4%
9:30 am BRT
United States — Core Inflation Rate (Sep, MoM): forecast 0.2%, previous 0.3%
11 am BRT
Brazil — Business Confidence (Oct): consensus 44, previous 44.9
12 pm BRT
Brazil — Thomson Reuters Ipsos Consumer Sentiment (Oct): previous 52.17
12 pm BRT
United States — Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep): previous 0.2%
12 am BRT
China — Exports (Sep): previous 18.6
12 am BRT
China — Balance of Trade (Sep): consensus 118.1, previous 119.1
12 am BRT
China — Exports (Sep, YOY): consensus 25.5, previous 25
12 am BRT
China — Balance of Trade Yuan (Sep): consensus 805, previous 809.3
12 am BRT
China — Imports (Sep, YOY): consensus 24.5, previous 28.2
12 am BRT
China — Imports (Sep): previous 21.7
12:35 am BRT
Japan — 5-Year JGB Auction: previous 2.239
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 206,888 | -1.04% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,805 | -0.02% |
| USD/BRL | 5.0273 | +0.81% |
Source: market close, 13 October 2026.
01 The setup in one read
Brazilian investors start Wednesday with the Ibovespa, the main B3 stock index, at 206,888 after a 1.04% fall on Tuesday. It was the first session since Monday’s holiday, and the index had closed Friday at 209,067.
The real lost 0.81% to 5.0273 per US dollar over the same period, from 4.9871. That is a move large enough to matter for importers, fuel prices and foreign investors holding Brazilian assets.
Two releases will frame the open. IBGE’s August services survey lands at 09:00 BRT, and US consumer prices for September follow at 09:30 BRT, with economists expecting inflation to rise to 3.6% a year.
Assessment — Data-dependent open, quiet corporate calendar MEDIUM
Two data points can move the market within 30 minutes of each other, so the first hour may be choppy. A hot US inflation print would favour the dollar, while a weak Brazilian services number would strengthen the case for further Selic cuts. The unknown is how much of Tuesday’s fall already reflects these risks.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
| Instrument | Last close | Change | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | 206,888 | -1.04% | Reaction to US inflation at 09:30 BRT |
| USD/BRL | 5.0273 | +0.81% | Services print and US CPI |
| S&P 500 | 7,805 | -0.02% | US inflation reaction |
| Business confidence | 44.9 prior | 44.0 forecast | 11:00 BRT release |
The table sets out the closing levels that frame the open. The Ibovespa and the real both ended Tuesday weaker, while Wall Street was almost flat.
Traders will watch whether the Ibovespa can hold above 206,000 after Tuesday’s drop. The real’s reaction to US inflation will set the tone for foreign flows.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
B3 · pre-open setup
Oct 14, 2026 · 00:33
Ibovespa · benchmark
206,887.52 -1.04%
L 167,142day rangeH 168,310
+21.85% over 12 months
Market breadth · 33 names
52% advancing
17 ▲ advancing16 declining ▼
Currencies, rates & key inputs
USD / BRL
5.16
+0.01%
EUR / BRL
5.95
+1.01%
Selic rate
14.00%
·
Brent crude
88.88
-0.03%
Iron ore
161.91
·
Sector heatmap · average move today
Materials
+1.58%
SUZB3, KLABIN
Mining
+1.16%
VALE3, CSNA3, GGBR4
Other
+0.76%
BRENT, WTI, IRON ORE, GOLD
Industrials
+0.20%
WEGE3, RENT3
Financials
-0.10%
ITUB4, BBDC4, BBAS3, B3SA3
Energy
-0.12%
PETR4, PRIO3
Consumer Staples
-0.25%
SLCE3, ABEV3
Utilities
-1.38%
ENEV3
Consumer Disc.
-1.98%
AZZA3, LREN3
Latin America scoreboard
IndexLastTodayStrength
IbovespaBrazil 206,887.52 -1.04%
S&P/BMV IPCMexico 67,147.36 +0.60%
S&P IPSAChile 11,020.01 -0.21%
S&P MERVALArgentina 2,869,151 +1.45%
MSCI COLCAPColombia 2,570.34 +1.55%
BVL S&P PerúPeru 60,645.95 -0.22%
Full instrument board
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 206,887.52 | -1.04% | +21.85% | 209,066.90 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
Largest moves today
CORN 480.50 +10.02%
COFFEE 317.25 -5.51%
WHEAT 655.00 +3.93%
BEEF 223.60 -3.93%
SOY 1,184 +3.20%
COCOA 5,719 +3.18%
CATTLE 339.10 -3.16%
AZZA3 15.89 -2.63%
The session read
The Ibovespa eased 1.04%, with breadth positive — 17 of 33 names higher. Materials led, while Consumer Disc. lagged.
03 On the B3 radar today — services data and business confidence
| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| IBGE Monthly Services Survey | 09:00 BRT | Main domestic growth read for August |
| US consumer prices (September) | 09:30 BRT | Sets the tone for the dollar and Treasury yields |
| Business confidence | 11:00 BRT | Sentiment gauge for the rate path |
| Thomson Reuters Ipsos consumer sentiment | 12:00 BRT | Monthly household mood, previous reading 52.17 |
The services survey measures how much Brazil’s service sector, from restaurants to transport, grew in August. It is the largest part of the economy, so the number feeds directly into rate expectations.
Business confidence is a secondary signal. The forecast is 44.0, down from 44.9, which would suggest companies are turning more cautious.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Copom, Brazil’s rate-setting committee, is expected to keep easing. Polymarket gives a 25 basis-point cut 89.5% for its November decision.
That makes the services survey more important than usual. A strong number would suggest the economy still has momentum, which reduces the case for lower rates, while a weak one would add to the arguments for cuts.
The Selic is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, and it drives how much companies and consumers pay to borrow. Lower rates tend to support stocks, especially rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate and retail.
US inflation matters here too, because a higher US reading would keep Treasury yields up. That narrows the room for emerging-market central banks to cut without hurting their currencies.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Selic, November decision: 25 bp cut 89.5%, 50 bp or larger cut 2.9% (Polymarket, US$56,879 traded)
- Selic, December decision: 25 bp cut 55.5%, 50 bp or larger cut 25.5% (Polymarket, US$24,202 traded)
- Brazil presidential election: Flávio Bolsonaro 86.0%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 14.5% (Polymarket, US$181 million traded)
Prices are bets, not polls, and were read overnight on 13 October. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
No company-specific events are confirmed on B3’s calendar for today. Machinery maker Romi reports its third-quarter results on 20 October.
That leaves the corporate tape quiet, with attention on the macro data. Investors positioning for earnings may start shifting into names they expect to report strong numbers.
Mining giant Vale is scheduled to report on 29 October, with state oil company Petrobras following on 10 November. Both dates are two to four weeks away.
06 The levels to watch at the open
The first level to watch is Tuesday’s close of 206,888 on the Ibovespa. A recovery above it at the open would suggest buyers are returning, while a slide below it would extend the fall from Friday’s 209,067.
For the real, the key level is 5.00 per dollar, which it crossed on Tuesday after closing at 4.9871 on Monday. A strong US inflation number could push it further toward the weaker end of its recent range.
Business confidence at 11:00 BRT is the last domestic data point of the morning, and it could reinforce or reverse any move from the services report.
07 What to watch
- IBGE services survey: The 09:00 BRT release is the main domestic catalyst for rate expectations and the real
- US consumer prices: The 09:30 BRT release, forecast at 3.6% a year, will steer the dollar and Treasury yields
- Business confidence: The 11:00 BRT reading will add to the growth picture and could shift sentiment
- Rate-sensitive B3 names: Banks, retailers and real estate stocks will move most on any shift in Selic bets
Background: Gold Fund Slips 0.37% as Silver Fund Drops 2.10%.
Background: Soy Fund Slips 0.51% as Wheat Fund Falls 0.74%.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Selic?
It is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank’s Copom committee. It determines borrowing costs across the economy.
Why does the services survey matter?
Services make up the largest part of Brazil’s economy. The August survey shows whether growth is holding up, which directly affects rate expectations.
Why does US inflation matter for Brazil?
Higher US inflation tends to lift Treasury yields and the dollar. That can weaken the real and make it harder for Brazil’s central bank to keep cutting rates.
When does earnings season start?
Romi reports on 20 October, Vale on 29 October and Petrobras on 10 November.
Market data: RT
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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