BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president on Sunday 25 October in a runoff between President Lula and conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- —Why it matters Washington lists two Brazilian gangs as terrorist groups, and a Flávio win could take Brazil into the US-led Shield of the Americas security coalition.
- —Why now Lula and Flávio faced the same TV Globo interview series on 15 and 16 October, nine days before the vote, and both answered on crime and the United States.
- —What happened On Friday 16 October Flávio promised that Brazil will join the Shield and that he will declare the PCC, the Comando Vermelho and the militias narcoterrorist organisations.
- —The numbers He named 3 target groups, 1 border focus at Foz do Iguaçu and a January 2027 start for his promised war on drug trafficking.
- —What it means for you This is a campaign promise, not government policy, so nothing changes for US travellers, firms or investors unless he wins and then acts.
- —Still open Whether Brazilian law allows the label without Congress, and what joining the Shield would commit Brazil to.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.9% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (17 October, 3:30 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 77% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 17 October, 3:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Flávio Bolsonaro promised on Friday 16 October to declare three Brazilian crime groups narcoterrorist if he wins the Brazil election 2026. He made the pledge in a TV Globo interview, nine days before the Brazil runoff date of 25 October.
He also said Brazil will join the Shield of the Americas, a US-led coalition against organised crime, and Washington already lists two of the groups as terrorists. Brazil election polls show a close race, while Brazil election odds on Polymarket favour him.
Flávio Bolsonaro and the Narcoterrorist Label
Flávio Bolsonaro is a senator for Rio de Janeiro and the candidate of the conservative Liberal Party (PL). He faces President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT), who is seeking another term.
In the interview he said one of his first acts would be a meeting of the Army, Navy and Air Force commanders and the state police chiefs. He promised to “declare war on narcotrafficking” from January next year.
He added: “I will declare Comando Vermelho, PCC and militias narcoterrorist organisations, because that is what they are.” The PCC and the Comando Vermelho (CV) are two of Brazil’s largest criminal factions, and militias are armed paramilitary groups.
Exame notes that Brazilian law has no separate category of narcoterrorism, so the label would need changes to the law, not only a presidential decision. On 23 September Flávio had said he would act together with Congress.
What the Shield of the Americas Is
The Shield of the Americas is a security coalition that US President Donald Trump launched in March 2026 with friendly governments in the region. On 22 September its members signed an accord naming 24 criminal groups as shared threats, including the PCC and the CV.
The accord covers information sharing, technology, training and coordinated sanctions and financial measures against those groups. Brazil is not a member, and Flávio said he would sign Brazil up, with the Triple Border at Foz do Iguaçu as the target region.
The Triple Border is the area where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay meet along the Paraná and Iguaçu rivers. Flávio also said he would widen the role of the armed forces in guarding Brazil’s borders.
Washington announced on 28 May that it would list the PCC and the CV as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, effective 5 June. Brazil’s foreign ministry warned in July that such a listing could open the door to US military action on Brazilian soil, Exame reports.
How Lula Answered the Same Question
On Thursday 15 October Lula told TV Globo that the PCC and the CV are terrorists for Brazilian neighbourhoods and cities. But he said they are not the “state terrorism” that Washington means, because the gangs only want money.
Lula said he gave Trump a written proposal to fight organised crime using the experience of the Federal Police. He gave no details of the measures, as Lula Rejects US Terror Label on Brazil Gangs also reports.
Lula also backs a constitutional amendment to widen the federal role in public security. Our report on its Senate stage is Brazil Senate Panel Votes on Gang Crackdown.
Flávio had pledged to join the Shield before, as we reported in Flávio Bolsonaro Vows to Join US Security Pact. What is new on 16 October is the narcoterrorist label for three groups and a January start for the promised war on trafficking.
Costa Rica has expanded its own list of groups declared narcoterrorist, as Costa Rica Names 9 Narcoterrorist Groups shows. Background on Brazil’s place among its neighbours is in Brazil Geopolitics Explained 2026 and Brazil in Latin America, Its Role, Weight and Alliances.
What It Means for You
If you travel to Brazil, invest there or work with Brazilian firms, nothing changes today, because this is a campaign promise and not government policy. Lula remains president until the new term begins.
A Brazil inside the Shield would align Latin America’s largest economy more closely with Washington on security. Investors should watch whether a label brings sanctions, bank compliance duties or US operations, which the coverage we reviewed does not show him describing.
What Is Not Known
Flávio gave no legal route for the narcoterrorist label, and he did not say what joining the Shield would commit Brazil to. We have not seen the Shield’s text or its terms for new members.
Brasil de Fato, a left-leaning outlet, argues that the Shield could allow US troops in member states. The coverage we reviewed shows Flávio speaking of border security and information sharing, not of US troops in Brazil.
Flávio also called the port of Santos the world’s second-largest cocaine export port. Exame says no data came with that claim, and we could not confirm the ranking.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.9% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% on Saturday 17 October (3:30 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” event has about US$185 million in bets, and these are bets, not polls.
Polymarket data show Flávio’s price down 2.4 points over one day and 11.6 points over one week. Lula’s price rose 3.0 points in a day and 12.0 points in a week.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 23.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 77% · Lula 21%
As of 17 October, 3:20 am ET (08:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Flávio Bolsonaro promise on 16 October?
He promised that Brazil will join the Shield of the Americas and that he will declare the PCC, the Comando Vermelho and the militias narcoterrorist organisations. He also promised a war on narcotrafficking from January.
What is the Shield of the Americas?
It is a US-led security coalition launched in March 2026 with friendly governments in Latin America and the Caribbean. Its members signed an accord on 22 September naming 24 criminal groups as shared threats.
Is the narcoterrorist label Brazilian policy now?
No, it is a campaign promise from a candidate, and Lula is still president. Exame says Brazilian law has no narcoterrorism category, so the label would need legal changes.
What did Lula say about the same issue?
On 15 October Lula said the PCC and the CV are terrorists for Brazilian communities but not the state terrorism Washington means. He said he gave Trump a written proposal to cooperate against organised crime.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner takes office for a four-year term.
Sources: Exame, 16 October 2026; Diário do Nordeste, 16 October 2026; SBT News, 16 October 2026; SBT News, 23 September 2026; Exame, 15 October 2026; Metrópoles, 15 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 1 June 2026; Brasil de Fato, 16 October 2026. Prediction-market prices from Polymarket public data, 17 October 2026, 3:30 a.m. ET.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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