Alex Lawson campaign's internal poll suggests Sutcliffe may not be on his way to a sweeping re-election

Multiple public polls to date have shown Mark Sutcliffe as being the leading candidate among the front-runners in the mayoral race in Ottawa’s municipal election.

Now, in the final days leading up to election day on Oct. 26, a new internal poll from the Alex Lawson campaign suggests that undecided voters could change the course of the election, reducing the chance of an anticipated sweeping victory for the incumbent.

The Mainstreet Research poll surveyed 638 Ottawa residents between Oct. 14 and Oct. 16, asking them, “How would you vote for Mayor if the election were today?” It showed Sutcliffe as the leading candidate, with 35 per cent of surveyed voters saying they would vote for him.

Jeff Leiper was in second, according to the poll, with 25 per cent of the total vote. Alex Lawson had support from 11 per cent of all surveyed voters, while Neil Saravanamuttoo had eight per cent.

(The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.9 per cent and has a 95 per cent confidence level.)

However, Mainstreet Research CEO Quito Maggi says almost 20 per cent of those who responded to the firm’s survey said they were undecided.

“The important thing is the undecided,” said Maggi, who worked as the campaign co-chair and policy adviser on Lawson’s campaign.

Among undecided respondents, 61.5 per cent said they “definitely will not vote for” Sutcliffe.

This shows an “enthusiasm gap” for Sutcliffe, Maggi says, adding that while it may not be enough to undo the name recognition the candidate has built up, the breakdown of the undecided voters is a realistic depiction of Ottawa’s public opinion compared to other publicly available polls released over the last three weeks.

“Undecided vote and strategic vote can still play a factor in the outcome (of an election),” Maggi said. “This notion that Mark Sutcliffe is going to have a runaway re-election with a majority of the vote is far from the potential outcome.

“This poll doesn’t have my candidate with an overwhelming victory,” Maggi said. “It just tells a more realistic story about what’s actually going to happen next Monday.”

Voting day is set for Oct. 26.

Maggi says the Mainstreet Research poll is different from other public or leaked polls because there is no “decided” and “leaning” voters’ results.

“And the reason for that is because I think any time the gap between a leading candidate and other candidates is less than the undecided rate, it’s not really appropriate to report decided and leaning,” he said.

Maggi says pollsters in Ottawa can learn from the Oct. 17 municipal election in Surrey, B.C.

A Canada Pulse Insights poll had put candidate Brenda Locke at 33 per cent support and Doug McCallum at 16 per cent among decided voters, but McCallum unseated his opponent with 31.9 per cent of the vote.

Locke had 23.1 per cent of the vote.

“Ottawa need not follow the same pattern, but undecided voters, differences in turnout and strategic consolidation can produce an outcome that headline polling numbers do not anticipate,” Maggi said.

Maggi says it is time for pollsters to consider updating reporting standards and “not report decided and leaning numbers when the polls show the undecided rate as double the gap between the candidates or parties.”

An internal poll commissioned by Sutcliffe’s campaign showed the incumbent had a sizeable lead.

That poll showed that among 1,000 eligible voters surveyed between Sept. 25 and 30 by Abacus, Sutcliffe led with 39 per cent over Leiper at 12 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 11 per cent and Lawson at 10 per cent.

The survey was conducted online by Abacus’ David Coletto on behalf of the Sutcliffe campaign.

A Nanos Research poll conducted between Oct. 4 and Oct. 8 for CTV News Ottawa showed Sutcliffe leading with 49 per cent support from decided voters, with 31 per cent choosing Leiper, 12 per cent choosing Saravanamuttoo and seven per cent choosing Lawson.

Among all 762 randomly-selected voters surveyed by Nanos earlier in October, 23 per cent were undecided, according to CTV.

Sutcliffe led with 41 per cent among all voters surveyed by Nanos, with Leiper at 24 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at six per cent and Lawson at five per cent.

A poll conducted by ElectRight on Sept. 17 and 18, commissioned by Ottawa Compass and iPolitics, showed Sutcliffe leading at 35 per cent, Leiper at 19 per cent, Saravanamuttoo at 10 per cent and Lawson at four per cent.

In that poll, 28 per cent of survey respondents were undecided.

Maggi says those who say they are undecided in early election polls may or may not turn up to voting stations on election day, but argues that the system of reporting only decided votes is misleading.

“So the outcome (of the election) is still really, really uncertain, even though the polling would suggest the outcome is decided.”

— With files from Aedan Helmer

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