The Green Bay Packers are in town for a big NFC North matchup. The division is establishing themselves as one of the best in the NFL, so whoever wins this game will make an important statement, while the loser will have a bit of a hole to climb out of with three losses on the year.
Which team has the statistical edge? Let’s take a look in our On Paper Lions vs. Packers preview and prediction.
Lions pass offense (13th in DVOA) vs. Packers pass defense (2nd)
The Lions’ passing attack continues to be one of the more reliable units on the team. Jared Goff has been amazingly consistent throughout his Lions career, producing a top-10 or top-five unit for four years running.
Thus far this season, Detroit ranks:
- Second in passer rating (111.3)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (7.8)
- Third in dropback EPA (0.304)
- Fifth in dropback success rate (50.9%)
Aiding Goff’s MVP-like campaign is an offensive line that has come together quicker than expected. The Lions rank fourth in ESPN’s pass block win rate (58%), third in PFF pass blocking grade (73.2), 11th in pressure rate allowed (32.4%), and 13th in sack percentage (5.4%). There has been some issues when it comes to blitzes (time to pressure is third-highest at 2.21), but that hasn’t stopped Goff from being extremely efficient against the blitz (+0.33 EPA/pass, second-best).
The only big question with this unit is how the return of starting center Cade Mays will impact the unit. Will he be an immediate upgrade from Juice Scruggs, who played well? Or will there be an acclimation period that will result in some missed assignments?
The Packers are the most formidable foe the Lions have faced this year when it comes to defending the pass. Now, it’s important to note that they have faced a few backup quarterbacks this year, including Carson Wentz, Jalon Daniels, Case Keenum, and Tyson Bagent. Still, last week’s performance against the Cowboys was impressive, and shouldn’t be pushed to the side.
Thus far, Green Bay ranks:
- Third in passer rating allowed (73.9)
- Third in yards per attempt (5.9)
- Seventh in dropback EPA (-0.024)
- 14th in dropback success rate (45.5%)
That last stat suggests a unit that may be bolstered a bit by big plays. And, indeed, that is at least part of the case. The Packers have successfully created a lot of sacks (15, 12th) and turnovers (nine interceptions, first).
That is due to the aggressive nature of this defense. They make up for a mediocre defensive line with a high blitz rate (31.7%, 13th) and disguised coverages thanks to their elite pair of safeties. They rank second in total pressures (100), fourth in pressure rate (41.2%), and ninth in average time to pressure (2.58). They are able to do that despite ranking 30th in pass rush win rate (42%) and 26th in PFF pass rush grade (63.8). So if the Lions can manage the Packers’ aggressive tendencies and avoid negative plays, this is a winnable matchup.
Player to watch: Cade Mays. In his first game as a Lion, he may be one of the more critical pieces for the team. His presnap reads are going to be essential to Detroit’s success, but that is something the Lions believe is one of his strengths.
Via OC Drew Petzing:
There’s a stability factor there. He plays at a high level. He’s big, he’s physical, he’s really smart. The communication piece is a huge part of playing that position.
Advantage: Lions +1. This is a pretty dang even matchup, but the reason I’m giving the Lions an edge is because I believe Green Bay feeds off disruption, and Detroit has done a pretty good job avoiding that. Goff has yet to turn the ball over, and while I expect the Packers to get to the Lions quarterback for a few sacks, that shouldn’t be enough to take them completely out of their rhythm. If the Packers are forced to blitz, Goff has proven he can beat that.
Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Packers run defense (27th)
It’s been very feast or famine for the Lions’ rushing attack, yet most of the statistics actually show this as a near-elite unit despite the inconsistencies. The Lions rank:
- 12th in yards per carry (4.4)
- Eighth in rush EPA (-0.033)
- Fifth in success rate (46.2%)
Detroit is still seeking its first true explosive run, with Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush of the season being just 22 yards, but it seems like it’s just a matter of time given the underlying success of the unit. Run blocking is among the league’s best, ranking first in PFF grade (78.1), fourth in adjusted line yards, and 20th in run block win rate (72%).
However, short-yardage situations have been a problem. The Lions rank just 20th in power success rate (62%) and they’ve been stuffed on 18% of rushes, which ranks 21st.
Still, Gibbs has been impressive. His 18 rushes of 10+ yards ranks third in the NFL, despite playing one fewer games than most backs.
Okay, so this is where things are going to look a little weird. On the surface, the Packers have been pretty darn good against the run. They’ve held half of their opponents below 90 rushing yards and four of six below 3.5 yards per carry. But they also got completely smashed by the Falcons, and some of their down-to-down consistency is not as good as the raw numbers look.
Overall, the Packers rank:
- 15th in yards per carry allowed (4.0)
- 27th in rush EPA (-0.042)
- 25th in success rate (42.5%)
How much is that being dragged down by the Falcons game? Not as much as you think. In the three games since playing Atlanta, Green Bay still ranks just 28th in rush EPA and 27th in success rate. If we include the Falcons game, over the last four weeks, the Packers rank 32nd in rush EPA and t-32nd in success rate.
In other words, this is much more of a mismatch than it looks like.
Player to watch: Javon Bullard. The Packers’ nickel corner/safety is a force in the run game and will have to be accounted for on every play. Not only does he have a 85.3 PFF run defense grade, but he also has three tackles for loss.
Advantage: Lions +2. I’m curious to see how involved the Packers’ secondary will be in the run game, because if they devote too many to Jahmyr Gibbs, it could make them vulnerable on the back end. Still, I think this is a pretty clear advantage in Detroit’s favor, but I’m capping the advantage at just two, because the Lions have been inconsistent and the Packers’ “poor” run defense has really only cost them in one game.
Packers pass offense (17th) vs. Lions pass defense (25th)
It seems like the Packers’ passing attack is in the midst of turning a corner. That corner is finding an offensive line combination that isn’t a complete disaster. Through the first couple of games, the Packers could barely field an offense due to injuries and subpar play along the offensive line. It’s gotten a little better with some shuffling and additions, but the overall season numbers are still very concerning for Green Bay. They rank 25th in pressure rate, 32nd in time to pressure, 27th in pressures allowed, 32nd in pass block win rate, and 32nd in PFF pass blocking grade.
Yet, because they have very good weapons and a solid quarterback, their overall stats aren’t as bad as you may think. The Packers rank:
- 15th in passer rating (91.8)
- 12th in yards per attempt (7.5)
- 14th in dropback EPA (0.131)
- 21st in dropback success rate (42.9%)
Now, if you look at just the last three weeks, the Packers offense is clearly improving:
Weeks 4-6:
- Ninth in passer rating (101.8)
- Seventh in yards per attempt (8.2)
- Sixth in dropback EPA (0.248)
- 14th in dropback success rate (47.1%)
As we’ve talked about all week, it’s the Packers’ deep ball that is most concerning this week, as Jordan Love airs it out more than any other quarterback in the league.
The Lions’ passing defense has been downright horrible, and you don’t need me to show you the stats to prove it… but I’m going to anyways. Detroit ranks:
- 29th in passer rating allowed (106.3)
- 22nd in yards per attempt (7.5)
- 28th in dropback EPA (0.261)
- 30th in dropback success rate (52.7%)
While big plays have been a huge problem (23 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed, third most), the high success rate allowed suggests there is no inflation with any of the other stats. They’re just bad across the board. Even last game’s “success” against the Cardinals looks more like playing a bad offense than playing good defense.
But there is one saving grace, and it’s the Lions’ pass rush. Detroit sports PFF’s third-highest pass rush grade, ESPN’s third-highest pass rush win rate, and the fourth-highest sack rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, that only highlights how bad the coverage aspect of this team has been. Could the return of Pro Bowl safety Brian Branch help? Absolutely. But I’m not ready to credit him as a huge difference-maker in his first game back from an Achilles.
Player to watch: Matthew Golden. Of the Packers’ 32 deep-ball attempts, 15 of them have targeted Golden. The second-year receiver has caught four of those for 173 yards (third-most deep ball yardage in NFL). That may not seem like a ton, but those are obviously four huge-impact plays, each gaining at least 36 yards.
Advantage: Packers +3. Yeah, this is a pretty big advantage to give the Packers, but they’re trending in the right direction, and the Lions are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Yes, you could technically say the Lions are trending in the right direction after their performance against the Cardinals, but I am not convinced considering how poor Arizona’s pass offense is. I expect a very strong day from Love.
Packers run offense (32nd) vs. Lions run defense (23rd)
I don’t think there is any doubt in the world that the Packers’ have the worst rushing attack in football. Their numbers are downright atrocious for the season. They’ve yet to hit 90 rushing yards in a game, nor have they rushed for over 3.5 a carry in a contest. For the year, they rank:
- 32nd in yards per carry (2.9)
- 32nd in rush EPA (-0.299)
- 31st in rush success rate (32.%)
Unsurprisingly, the issues are mainly on the patchworked offensive line. They rank 31st in PFF run blocking grade (47.8), 32nd in adjusted line yards, but oddly 15th in ESPN’s run block win rate. They rank 29th in rushing yards before contract per rush (0.74), and also 30th in rushing yards after contact per rush (2.26).
That second number certainly has a chance to improve with Josh Jacobs expected back this week, because Green Bay’s running backs have also been poor (the Packers rank 32nd in rushing yards over expected per rush). But there is clearly a systemic issue here that Jacobs can’t fix on his own. Last year, Jacobs actually ranked 33rd out of 35 running backs in EPA/rush, so he is not the savior Packers fans are hoping for.
It’s hard to get a grasp on the Lions’ run defense. They’ve been awful in two games, awesome in two games, and neutral in one. It feels safe to call them average, and that’s how the stats are looking, as well:
- 20th in yards per carry allowed (4.2)
- 29th in rush EPA (-0.039)
- 13th in rushing success rate (38.4%)
Big plays have a been a bit of a problem, with the Lions allowing five rushes of 20+ yards on the season (t-seventh most). However, all five of those rushes came in two games (Bills, Panthers). They’ve been much steadier in the other three games. But those are also against terrible run offense that all average below 4.0 yards per carry.
One concerning metric to follow: the Lions run defense has been bad in power situations, allowing a 83% success rate in short-yardage situations, the second-highest in the NFL.
Player to watch: Alim McNeill. Green Bay is most vulnerable in the middle of their offensive line, and McNeill has been eating this year.
Advantage: Lions +1. I think Detroit has a very good chance of forcing a lot of third-and-longs, because despite its lack of success, the Packers are still very much insistent on trying to run the ball. The key will be getting off the field on third-and-longs, and… well, I don’t want to talk about it.
Last week’s prediction
I correctly predicted a Lions win last game, but I figured it would be a neck-and-neck game. That moves On Paper to a 4-1 record overall, but I’m just 2-3 against the spread. Almost all of my prediction mistakes can be attributed to underestimating the Lions’ defense. I didn’t make any adjustments to Detroit’s pass defense this week, but I do have a little more confidence in their run defense after holding a sneaky-okay Cardinals rushing attack (11th in success rate) to basically nothing.
In the comment section, it was actually Pride of Detroit writer Anthony Balaj who came close to the final score. His prediction of 45-20 was a single point off.
As is On Paper tradition, when a staff member wins On Paper, they get to request the photoshop. This week’s request, via Anthony:
Challenge accepted:
Truly, some of my worst work.
This week’s prediction
The Lions come out with a +1 advantage. I’ll be honest, I came into this preview expecting to pick the Packers given the current trajectories of both teams. But the real truth is that Detroit should hold the edge in three of these four matchups. Now the mismatch of Jordan Love vs. this Lions defense will undoubtedly keep the game close, but Detroit quite simply is still the better team on paper. Lions 34, Packers 31.