Thursday Night Football gave us an incredible shootout between the Patriots and Bears. I'm expecting more fireworks from a few key games this week. These are my biggest targets and fades of Week 7.
Quarterback
Start: C.J. Stroud, Texans
The Texans are expected to route the Giants as massive favorites this week, but that also means they have one of the best team totals at 26.5 points. Unlike previous seasons, they might not opt to take the air out of the ball entirely. Houston’s pass rate over expected is up by half a percent compared to 2025 and their neutral situation pace has sped up by nearly two seconds per play. These are small changes, but when combined with Houston’s struggling defense, they’ve allowed Stroud to rack up the third-most yards and the fifth-most fantasy points this year.
Start: Aaron Rodgers, Steelers
The books really love the Steelers this week, and for good reason. Pittsburgh has a 24-point implied team total versus a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback and they’ve been leaning on Rodgers’ arm to put up points. Their +4.3% pass rate over expected is the third-highest in the NFL.
Only four quarterbacks have attempted more passes than Rodgers. This is ultimately a volume play, but one that has gotten home with striking consistency this year.
Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
It’s hard to imagine a worse spot than a road date with Seattle. The Chiefs have once again been relying on a dink-and-dunk offense, with 73 percent of Mahomes' passes going less than 10 yards downfield. The Seahawks are allowing the second-lowest YPA (5.1) and the fourth-fewest YAC per catch (4.6) on these types of throws. On top of that, the Chiefs appear to be without their elite underneath receiver in Rashee Rice once again. Even with several teams on bye, Mahomes might be on the outside of the QB1 ranks looking in.
Sit: Kyler Murray, Vikings
It’s exceedingly rare that I side against the sportsbooks when they say an offense is going to do well. Books are buying the Vikings with a healthy 24-point team total, but I can’t get on board when it comes to Murray. Since he returned in Week 3, Minnesota’s offense has a PROE just below zero and they are the league’s slowest team in neutral situations. The play volume is lacking and the efficiency is dreadful. Murray is 20th in yards per attempt (6.6) and 31st in touchdown rate (two percent).
Running Back
Start: Wood Marks, Texans
Managers got burned by Marks last week. I’m betting against that happening a second time. Marks’ role in Week 6 was elite. He logged a 71 percent snap share, accounted for 61 percent of the team’s carries, and ran a route on 61 percent of Houston's dropbacks. That’s a workhorse gig. Now he gets to use that role against a hapless Giants team. The Texans are favored by over 10 points.
Start: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos
The Broncos are favored by a comfortable 4.5 points over the Cardinals. Since signing with Denver last year, Dobbins has averaged nearly 16 carries for 77 yards when the Broncos are favorites of at least a field goal.
His fantasy output increases by 1.5 points despite touchdown luck working against him in those splits. Now gets a defense that has faced the fifth-most running back carries this year. This is the type of spot you drafted Dobbins for.
Sit: Kendre Miller, Saints
Miller’s 20 carries in Week 5 were a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers, but we aren’t going to get a similar workload this week. The Saints have run 60 plays with a lead this season. Over half of them came last week as they ran out the clock on the Giants. The Saints are the second-most run-heavy team with a lead this year. They are 17th in run rate when playing from behind, which is what Vegas expects to be the norm versus Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Sit: Tyler Allgeier, Cardinals
Allgeier felt like a great bet to overcome the Cardinals’ ugly offensive environment when we thought he was going to see every touch. It’s not a fun bet if he’s splitting reps with Bam Knight. Allgeier earned a disappointing 53 percent carry share last week and ran just under half of the routes. He even ceded the team’s only goal line carry to Knight. Allgeier is simply the leader of a committee on the No. 24 scoring offense.
Wide Receiver
Start: Germie Bernard, Steelers
Bernard was the biggest win of my Start/Sits last week, racking up 11 catches for 87 yards and a game-winning touchdown versus Tampa Bay. Bernard has a monstrous 28 percent target share over the past two weeks, putting him ahead of even DK Metcalf in the pecking order for opportunities with Michael Pittman and Roman Wilson out. Bernard’s red zone touchdown wasn’t a fluke either. He has seen a third of the team’s red zone targets in his past two games. This is just what a weekly WR2 profile looks like.
Start: Carnell Tate, Titans
As much as I would like to forget about the Titans for the next two months, Tate’s usage is too good to ignore. Tate is 13th in target share (27 percent) and fourth in air yards share (48 percent). He has the seventh-highest first-read target share (29 percent). The Titans are getting Tate involved in the short and intermediate areas of the field at an extremely high clip, with 84 percent of his looks coming 1-19 yards downfield. Cam Ward ranks 27th in accurate throw rate in that range. That might not sound great, but it’s far better than his rank of 33rd in accuracy rate on deep shots. The Titans are doing their best to set Tate up for success, which is enough to keep him in lineups.
Sit: Jordan Addison, Vikings
Addison has run 58 routes with Justin Jefferson on the field this year. That’s roughly one and a half games' worth of routes. He has posted a grand total of 21 yards with Jefferson on the pitch. He is averaging .14 targets per route and a dismal .4 yards per route when playing alongside Jefferson. If I convinced you to fade Murray this week, it’s easy to send Addison to the bench along with him.
Sit: Jaylen Waddle, Broncos
We can stop treating Waddle as a WR2. We barely have to treat him as a WR3. Since the start of last year, Bo Nix ranks 38th out of 42 qualified quarterbacks in YPA when throwing over the middle of the field (6.9). He’s 35th in completion rate (67.3 percent). During his five years in Miami, Waddle accumulated the third-most yards via the seventh-most targets on MoF throws. This is a match made in Hell, and I’m ready to throw in the towel on Waddle.
Tight End
Start: Tyler Higbee, Rams
I had Higbee penciled in as a “Start” because of the Davante Adams' injury before Puka Nacua went down with a calf issue in practice. Now Higbee is a jam. He ran a season-high 83 percent of the routes in Week 6. His 13 percent target share, while nothing to write home about, was also his highest in a game with Nacua active. The Rams lead the league in pass attempts per game and Higbee is looking like, at worst, the team’s de facto WR2 for the week.
Start: Tucker Kraft, Packers
Kraft is still looking for his breakout game, but the usage has been there. He has a 19 percent target share over the past two weeks. On the Packers’ now pass-first offense, that has been good for seven targets per game. Now, he gets a Detroit defense that is giving up 31.9 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. They are 10 points clear of the No. 2 defense in TE points allowed.
Sit: Harold Fannin, Browns
The game plan was simple for Fannin last year. He earned a lot of targets and that was enough to get him in the TE1 mix, even though he played on a terrible team. He still plays on a bad team, but the targets have vanished. Fannin went from a 22 target share and .24 targets per route run in 2025 to 17 percent and .15 TPRR this year. He saw fewer than five targets just three times last year, one of which was an early exit due to injury. Fannin has already matched that number of sub-five-target games, and we’re just six weeks into the season.
Sit: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Rashee Rice has missed almost the entirety of the Chiefs’ past two games. It hasn’t made a difference for Kelce. If anything, things have gotten worse for him. He had a 21 percent target share and a 23 percent air yards share with Rice healthy. Those numbers have plummeted to 15 and 11 percent without him. I expect Kelce to see more work this week, but fantasy managers have to bank on that happening all while he faces one of the best defenses in the NFL.