A new poll has Parliament on knife-edge, with the Opportunity party as potential kingmaker.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll out this morning has neither a National nor Labour coalition with enough seats to govern.
Labour has edged slightly ahead on 28.7% with National close behind on 27.6%, while Opportunity stands poised as a potential kingmaker at 5.4% despite sitting close to the threshold to enter Parliament.
The results are holding steady from September’s poll as the election enters its final stretch ahead of the beginning of early voting next week.
The Green Party remains stable at 14.3%, NZ First has dipped to 11.8%, ACT is holding its position on 9% while Te Pāti Māori remains on the fringes at 2%.
The result raises the stakes for both of the major parties and will see leaders Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon eager to take points off the other as they meet for their final major debate, hosted by Stuff and The Post, tonight.
Commenting on the , RNZ deputy political editor Craig McCulloch told Morning Report this election was shaping up to be New Zealand's most unpredictable during the MMP era.
"There are just so many variables in play."
McCulloch pointed to Opportunity sitting right on the 5% threshold - meaning a mere fraction of a percentage point could turn the whole race on its head.
He also noted the possibility and "increasing likelihood" of there being a Parliamentary overhang, both on the left and the right.
Previewing tonight's debate, McCulloch said he did not envy the Stuff team in trying to eke something new out of Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins.
"The men themselves have not brought anything particularly new to the previous events," he said.
"This debate is slightly different... it's 60 minutes straight with no ad breaks, so the leaders won't be able to check in with their advisors periodically."
Asked about the possibility of coalition talks dragging past Christmas, McCulloch noted the irony of Luxon being quite happy to put new restrictions on voting in order to speed up the process, and yet not willing to put any limits around his own negotiations.
The poll canvassed 1458 eligible NZ voters over 18 years old between October 9-19 and had a margin of error of +/- 3%.
