Edmonton Oilers replace Knoblauch's run-and-gun with Babcock's crowbar attack

This in from NHL Network analyst Mike Kelly, the Director of Analytics and Insights at Sportlogiq, his take that there’s been major change in the two-way game of the Edmonton Oilers this season.

Essentially, under new coach Mike Babcock the Oilers have moved away from playing a puck possession game of keepaway to a power crowbar attack, featuring all kinds of dump-ins, forceful board play, and a renewed emphasis on backchecking.

As an example, the Oilers ranked 25th out of 32 NHL teams in hits per game last year, with just 18.7 per game. This year, the team ranks fourth overall in NHL at 25.5 hits per game.

A week ago, Kelly dug into the change under Babcock.

“There’s been a big difference in the way that this team plays, which has helped them be better defensively over these last handful of games, and it’s noticeable up and down the lineup,” Kelly said. “You look at last year and years past; they’ve been kind of a run-and-gun team. They love to handle the puck. They love to carry the puck into the offensive zone. They rarely ever dump it in. They made a lot of mistakes. They created a lot of offence off the rush and in transition, but they also made a lot of mistakes by hanging on to pucks too long, turning them over in bad areas, and ultimately you’re just fighting an up-and-down game that sometimes will go your way because you can outscore it, and sometimes it won’t. Sometimes there was an easier play to be made, and past years’ versions of the Oilers weren’t always able to make that play or willing to make that play. ”

That’s changed in significant fashion this year, Kelly said, pointing out the team had the second fewest percentage of dump-in plays last year, just 46 per cent, but after their first six games had the second highest percentage of dump-ins in the NHL, 63 per cent of the time.

When it comes to giving up odd-man rushes, Edmonton has gone from third worst last year in 5-on-5 play, giving up about five per game, to the second best, giving up just over three per game.

“By dumping pucks in more and mitigating a little bit more of that risk in the neutral zone, they are not putting themselves in such vulnerable positions defensively. And you know what? You can go and hunt pucks too… and create offence that way.”

Many Edmonton players are dumping in the puck far more often, including Connor McDavid, from 14 percent of his zone entries last year to 21 per cent this year, and Leon Draisaitl, 24 per cent last year to 37 per cent this year.

“The point being, you’re managing the puck better,” Kelly said. “There’s clearly an agenda here to make sure you manage the puck first, create offence after that.”

The beauty of this plan, Kelly said, is that Edmonton’s best players are off to unbelievable starts on the attack. “They’re still not sacrificing what the superstars have to do to be successful, which is create a ton of offence… It’s just being a little more responsible with the puck. You’re still going to create offence. In fact, there’s times you’re going to create even more offence by playing that way. If these guys can buy into that, that’s again a separator from a good team to a great team potentially.”

1. Sportslogiq does a fantastic job tracking individual and team stats, which is why Kelly’s analysis is so compelling.

Kelly shows real and massive change in Edmonton’s approach through his numbers.

In terms of result, Babcock’s approach has resulted in a much better ratio of the game’s most dangerous scoring chances — five-alarm shots as we call them at the Cult of Hockey — with the Oilers going from 7.9 for and 6.8 against per game last year, a +1.1 differential, to 9.0 for and 7.0 per game against this year, a +2.0 differential.

Overall, Edmonton gave up 13.6 Grade A shots per game last year. This year they’re giving up just 11.6 per game, a significant improvement in their overall defensive play.

2. Babcock has said he wants his players to use their sticks like crowbars to pry away pucks. He’s elevated Vasily Podkolzin to the top line, in large part due to his ability to crowbar to himself or his teammates pucks in board battles. Of course, Zach Hyman is a long-time master of this, and Babcock hopes big, strong forwards like Colton Dach and Filip Hallander will join Club Crowbar and help in Edmonton’s efforts to play a heavy, forceful game in the offensive end.