Solana price slides toward $100, can weekly support save the recovery?

Solana price has retreated toward $104, putting $100 support back under pressure even as its weekly chart leaves room for the broader recovery to survive.

Solana is back near the area where its September recovery began to gather strength. After advancing from its summer base toward $124, the token has surrendered much of that breakout, leaving buyers defending a narrower cushion above $100.

Solana’s daily chart shows SOL was trading at $104.47, down 0.92% for the session after reaching $107.44. Its inability to hold that intraday advance brings the previous day’s $100.62 low back into focus.

Yet the daily and weekly charts tell different parts of the story. Short-term momentum continues to weaken, while the weekly price remains above two moving averages that could help determine whether the pullback becomes a deeper reversal.

Solana’s weekly recovery rests on the $99 area

The weekly chart placed the 50-week simple moving average at $98.99, just below the psychological $100 threshold. The 20-week average sat farther down at $89.56.

This makes the area around $99–$101 a more consequential test than the round number alone. It brings the recent low and the 50-week average close together, giving buyers a defined region to defend after the retreat from $124.

SOL remained above both shorter weekly averages, but below its 200-week average at $112.43. The September rally had carried price above that longer-term reference before the latest decline pushed it back underneath.

A recovery through roughly $112–$113 would therefore repair part of the weekly damage. Until then, the move back below the 200-week average leaves the rebound facing resistance before it can challenge the recent peak.

Weekly momentum has also cooled. Stochastic RSI showed its faster line at 75.77, below the slower line at 88.60 after turning down from elevated readings. The summer recovery has lost momentum as price returns toward support.

A separate Oct. 16 assessment from the account publishing as Daan Crypto Trades described SOL as holding above major support, with the daily 200-period exponential moving average approaching beneath it. The account treated a loss of that area as an invalidation of its recovery setup.

$SOL Slow and steady. It has been pretty resilient relative to $BTC & $ETH the past few days.

Still sitting right above the major support level with the Daily 200EMA coming in below. So that's a clear invalidation below.

Solana Breakpoint is a month from now which usually sees… pic.twitter.com/Gizckx6ilx

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 16, 2026

Daily selling pressure challenges the longer-term bullish case

The daily indicators give buyers little room for another failed bounce. Aroon Down stood at 92.86%, while Aroon Up was at zero. That wide separation favors the recent downward trend, with fresh lows occurring much more recently than fresh highs.

The Awesome Oscillator was also negative at −6.49, and its latest bars were red. Together, those readings show that the retreat toward support is still accompanied by weakening momentum.

Crypto Xlarge offered a more optimistic monthly interpretation in an Oct. 16 post. The account described price compressing between rising support and horizontal resistance, alongside a possible RSI trendline breakout.

Its outlook depends on confirmation. SOL remains well below the upper boundary drawn on that monthly chart, while the immediate daily setup is testing whether buyers can preserve support.

U.S. fund flows add another obstacle. Farside Investors recorded $9.8 million in Solana ETF withdrawals on Oct. 15, extending the negative streak to nine trading sessions. Calculated from its table, those sessions produced approximately $37.8 million in combined outflows.

The selling also followed a broader withdrawal from crypto funds. crypto.news’ weekly ETF flow review recorded $1.29 billion in withdrawals across five tracked U.S. crypto ETF categories during Oct. 5–9.

Liquidation clusters frame the next recovery attempt

CoinGlass’s one-month liquidation heatmap showed nearby concentrations around $104–$105, with further bands around $108–$110. Larger overhead concentrations remained near $123–$125, close to the region where the recent advance stalled.

Below price, visible bands around $100–$101 and $96–$97 place leveraged positions near the same area now being tested on the weekly chart.

crypto.news’ previous Solana price analysis documented Thursday’s rebound from $100.62 toward $106.20. The latest daily reading near $104.47 shows that buyers have already surrendered part of that recovery.

Alpenglow provides the next scheduled network catalyst. The Solana Foundation expects activation on Oct. 21, targeting roughly 150-millisecond finality.

For price, the nearer test remains $99–$101. Holding that region would preserve a route back toward $108–$110 and the weekly resistance near $112.43. Losing it would expose the heatmap concentrations around $96–$97, with the 20-week average near $89.56 becoming the next broader reference.