AI investment is helping keep global economic growth at around 3% despite the drag from an energy supply shock, while Asian economies could emerge among the biggest beneficiaries of the technology boom, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday.
Speaking at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Georgieva said the surge in spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure was creating both a “demand shock” and an “investment shock”, with the potential to lift growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point and emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point. “AI, love it, hate it. It’s already here,” Georgieva said.
She said the acceleration in AI-related investment was helping counter the impact of the energy shock on the global economy. “So that shift into higher gear is what is keeping the world economy growing at around 3%, despite the fact we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock,” she said.
The IMF had forecast global growth at 3% for 2026 in July and is due to release its updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday.
Asia positioned to benefit
Asia is particularly exposed to the AI investment cycle because many of the companies building the infrastructure required for the technology are based in the region. The US, China and India are among the most important producers in the AI supply chain, while several Asian economies are major suppliers of hardware and components.
The investment surge could also help address one of the region’s biggest structural challenges: ageing populations and shrinking workforces.
China, Japan and South Korea are among the economies expected to face significant declines in their working-age populations by 2050. The IMF has said productivity gains from AI could partly offset the economic impact of those demographic trends.
But the benefits will depend on how quickly economies can adopt the technology, build digital infrastructure and develop the skills needed to use it effectively.
Jobs and the AI transition
Georgieva said the impact of AI would extend beyond the current investment boom, describing the technology as a “slow-moving tsunami” that would reshape work, education and economic growth.
The IMF estimates that AI could eventually augment, downgrade or eliminate around 40% of jobs globally. An initial study also found that around 10% of jobs in the US already require AI-related skills. “There is a particular problem that we have to address very soon… and that is that, the first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand,” Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam said.
He also warned that uneven adoption could widen the gap between economies. “AI is going to widen the divergence if we are too passive about it,” he said.
World Bank President Ajay Banga said developing economies should focus on “small AI”, applications that do not require the massive computing infrastructure associated with the largest AI models. Such applications could deliver productivity gains in areas including agriculture, healthcare, and education, he said.