Saturday's huge Big 12 showdown between No. 14 Houston and No. 10 Utah pits two of the nation's elite offenses against each other and features several fantasy-relevant players. The Cougars enter Rice-Eccles Stadium with a sparkling 6-1 record after surviving a 35-32 nailbiter over Oklahoma State, while Utah escaped with a similarly narrow 27-24 victory over Colorado despite just a 28.1% postgame win expectancy.
What to expect from Houston
Houston's hyper-efficient offense leads the nation in success rate (54.9%) and down-set conversion rate (87%) while ranking second in points per drive (3.72) and third in yards per drive (46). They've gone three-and-out on just 9.5% of possessions (2nd in the country) while leading the nation in third-down conversion rate (61.4%). If there's a ding in Houston's offensive profile, it's the lack of big-play ability from the run game, ranking 122nd in yards per successful rush (7.8 yards) and 92nd in marginal explosiveness. Houston sustains drives, protects the ball (5 turnovers) and protects QB Conner Weigman well enough for him to operate without stress (18% pressure rate = 20th). They have to face a stingy Utah defense that ranks sixth in FBS in success rate allowed (33%) and No. 1 in plays stopped for zero or negative yards (41.4%).
Weigman has been the architect of Houston's ascension, completing 134-of-198 passes for 1,771 yards and a national-leading 26 total touchdowns to just two interceptions. His 56.8% passing success rate and 8.5 yards per dropback averages are excellent marks, and he's a problem outside of structure with 115 of his 260 rushing yards coming on 14 scrambles. The former five-star prospect just unloaded on Oklahoma State for 343 passing yards and five touchdowns which boosted his yearly scoring average to a pristine 29.5 PPG which ranks fourth-best among P4 signal-callers.
Utah's shutdown secondary will present Weigman's most difficult test since Houston's narrow decision to Texas Tech in Week 3. The Utes are one of the best in the country at suppressing the pass game, sporting a 49% completion rate (1st) and 33.6% passing success rate allowed (8th). Utah's coverage profile makes TE Patrick Overmyer the most appealing Houston receiver. The converted quarterback leads the Cougars with 56 targets, turning them into 38 receptions, 432 yards and seven touchdowns. Overmyer's 59.6% success rate leads Houston's regular pass-catchers outside WR Amare Thomas, and 58% of his receptions have generated first downs. Overmyer also moves throughout the formation, with 45% of his catches coming from the slot and 24% while aligned inline. That flexibility is valuable against Utah's zone-heavy scheme.
Thomas, meanwhile, carries more volatility. His recent lull had been attributed to increased defensive attention, but he detonated for two scores against Oklahoma State. Thomas' 26% target share and 7.5 targets per game average mean he is still a vital component of Houston's offense, averaging a solid 14.7 PPG, although Utah's defensive backs rank 12th nationally in havoc rate which could subdue the Cougars' pass game. WR Trent Walker profiles as a possession-oriented flex option given the bye-heavy Week 8 game slate, with Walker having recorded 50+ receiving yards in each of his last four games, including 107 yards and a touchdown last week against Oklahoma State.
Houston's backfield is a split-carry situation where RBs Makhi Hughes and Re'Shawn Sanford take turns producing fantasy-relevant scores, with Weigman vulturing six rushing touchdowns making it difficult to decipher which rusher will be the preferred option on a weekly basis. Utah has allowed only a 35.1% rushing success rate and 1.78 yards after contact per carry, restricting the backfield's ceiling.
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What to expect from Utah
On the Utah side, QB Devon Dampier has completed 68.6% of his passes for 1,412 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 246 yards and three scores on the ground, which equates to roughly 25 PPG. Colorado forced him into two interceptions on Saturday, but Dampier still threw for 278 yards and three touchdowns, including two scores to WR Braden Pegan. Utah head coach Morgan Scalley admitted, "I don't know that we should've won this game outside of the score," while criticizing the Utes' turnovers, red-zone execution, third-down work and overall passing efficiency.
Minor hiccups aside, the Utes have a favorable matchup against a Houston defense allowing a 44.5% passing success rate (109th) and 7.1 yards per dropback (104th). Oklahoma State piled up 499 total yards and 365 through the air last week on them, making Dampier a bona fide QB1, as usual.
RB Wayshawn Parker is Utah's premier skill-position player. He has amassed 597 yards and seven touchdowns on 89 carries, averaging 6.71 yards per attempt with a 53.9% success rate, 3.24 yards before contact and a superb 0.34 missed tackles forced per rush. His receiving profile is equally valuable, having secured 19 catches on 23 targets for 201 yards and four touchdowns for 25.9 PPG. HC Scalley has called Parker a "complete back," specifically praising his added weight, blocking and downfield effort. Houston has defended rushing efficiency reasonably well, allowing just 4.1 YPC (33rd), but its defense also ranks 113th in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 123rd in red-zone touchdown rate. Parker is locked-in as a RB1.
Pegan closes out the primary Utah stack. His 32-422-6 line has generated approximately 16 PPG, and he is cemented as the team's WR1 having received 11+ targets in three of the last four games. Houston's secondary has allowed 15.4 yards per successful pass (94th) and a 7.7% explosive-play rate (124th), creating an inviting environment for Pegan and dart-throw flex WR Ricky Johnson. TE Noah Bennee has accrued 13 catches for 206 yards and three touchdowns and is a viable touchdown-dependent streamer who averages a respectable 7.5 PPG.
Bottomline
The Over/Under shot up from 50.5 points to 56.5, and I still think that is probably too low considering how much firepower these two programs possess.