Advanced Stats Give Wisconsin Surprising Edge in Huge Showdown with No. 16 USC

After a 4-1 start had Wisconsin football in as good of a place as it's been under head coach Luke Fickell, an ugly and disheartening loss on the road at No. 12 UCLA has seemingly erased much of the positivity the four-game winning streak generated around the program.

But such is life in college football; you're only as good as your last game. And while the Badgers kick themselves for letting a winnable game slip away on the road, there's no time to dwell on it with the No. 16 USC Trojans coming to town for a Saturday night showdown.

At first glance, this is an exceedingly difficult matchup for Wisconsin. USC has the superior talent, momentum and the top statistical passing game in the Power Four. The Badgers, meanwhile, tossed for just 66 yards in the loss to UCLA and looked quite permeable on the back end defensively.

But dig into this game a little closer, and many expect it to be a hotly contested affair. Vegas, for one, has Wisconsin as less than a field goal underdog. Considering the trajectory of these two teams and the aforementioned talent disparity that's especially evident at the offensive skill positions, the narrow spread is somewhat surprising.

If the sports books like the Badgers' chances, advanced analytics like them even more. Parker Fleming of Dropback HQ posted his weekly advanced stats preview for Week 8, and not only does his model give them Badgers a fighting chance, it has them winning the game outright.

Fleming's model gives Wisconsin a 50.8% chance to win, with a projected score of 24.7 points to USC's 24.4. Though the Trojans have a daunting roster, there's some key statistical categories where the Badgers could have an edge, according to Fleming.

While USC's offense has unsurprisingly sterling marks in just about every category, Wisconsin's defense does as well. The Trojans have the top offensive EPA (expected points added) per drop-back in the nation, but the Badgers' defensive EPA per drop-back checks in at No. 12. UCS's EPA per rush is No. 11; the Badgers' defensive EPA per rush is No. 9. Wisconsin may also have a good shot to get USC into some 3rd-and-long situations, as its defensive Early Downs EPA ranks No. 5 nationally.

It's an interesting tale of two sides of the ball. When the Trojans are on offense, it's good on good. The Badgers' defense is elite and USC is high-flying offensively. But when Wisconsin has the ball, the numbers point to some areas it could find success against a USC defense that's been nothing to write home about.

You don't need advanced analytics to tell you USC's defense is still a work in progress. It surrendered 35 points to Rutgers, 30 points to Louisiana-Lafayette and 26 points to San Jose State. But the Trojans' defensive EPA per drop-back checks in at No. 87 nationally, and for all of Wisconsin's struggles throwing the football last week, its offensive EPA is a solid 42nd in the country.

Ultimately, this game is expected to be extremely close, and when diving into the numbers, there's legitimate reasons why.