The Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN) has responded with grave concern to the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, released yesterday, which warns that current climate policies could lead to 2.8°C of global warming this century, while full implementation of countries’ climate pledges would still result in approximately 2.6°C.
The report finds that even the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway would see temperatures peak at 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century, requiring global emissions to fall by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 relative to 2025 levels, alongside unprecedented levels of carbon dioxide removal throughout the century.
Reacting to the report, Dr. Rufino Varea, Director of the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network, said:
“Every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C carries consequences for our islands, our oceans, and our people. Overshoot will bring irreversible losses, and no promise to bring temperatures back down decades from now can guarantee that what has been lost will ever be restored.
“The growing likelihood of overshoot must never become political permission for delayed action. Governments cannot continue expanding fossil fuel production while expecting future technologies to reverse the damage. For the Pacific, 1.5°C remains our survival threshold, and we will not allow the world’s failure to act to redefine what is acceptable for our communities.”
The report also finds that returning temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of the century could require removing approximately 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, despite significant uncertainties surrounding the feasibility of achieving this at scale. Yet, as UNEP’s earlier report on limiting overshoot makes clear, there is no guarantee of a return to the world we know today. Even if temperatures eventually decline, the process could take centuries, with irreversible losses and lasting changes to ecosystems and communities.
Dr. Sindra Sharma, International Policy Lead at PICAN, said:
“We cannot gamble the future of Pacific peoples on speculative promises of future carbon removal. The solutions to cut emissions already exist. What remains missing is the political will to deliver them at the speed and scale required.
“COP31 must confront the growing gap between what the science demands and what governments are willing to deliver. That means ending fossil fuel expansion, accelerating a just and equitable transition, and providing the finance developing countries need to act.
“It also means defending our right to science. The IPCC’s latest assessments must inform the second Global Stocktake so that the world’s response is grounded in the best available evidence, rather than political convenience.”
PICAN will carry these priorities into COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, guided by the Pacific Climate Justice Demands and the network’s five red lines for climate justice.