Arise analyst, Mahmud Jega, has described the All Progressives Congress (APC) and opposition parties as seriously unprepared for the 2027 general elections, saying campaign activities are unfolding much later than in previous presidential election cycles, despite being less than three months to the polls.
Speaking in an interview on Arise News on Monday, he said the delay in campaign activities reflected a serious lack of preparedness across the political landscape, noting that even the ruling APC only inaugurated its campaign council recently and was yet to commence major rallies.
“This year’s campaign is late, It is unfolding much later than all previous presidential campaigns that we have had in fact, in the last 40 to 50 years. We are now less than three months to the election, and the parties are still struggling. Even the APC, it’s only last week that they inaugurated their council, and also it will be another 10 days after that before they hold. And then there are all kinds of problems.
“They have rolled out a timetable, saying that the president, who is the main candidate in the election, is not going to appear in 24 states out of 36.
“The opposition parties, whether they were waiting to see what the ruling party will do, but they’re taking quite, quite late. They have not inaugurated their campaign councils, not to talk of to start the most visible campaign issues, which is the rallies.
“And from all indications, all the parties, the ruling and the opposition, they are way behind schedule. Really, there is a serious lack of preparedness in this year’s election cycle,” he told Arise News.
Jega said the APC’s decision to launch its 2027 presidential campaign in Katsina State appears aimed at addressing the party’s challenges in northern Nigeria, where economic hardship, insecurity and concerns over the distribution of federal projects and appointments could affect its support.
“The whole series is political. So, I suspect it was the presidential campaign council that walked out that schedule.
“This time, because of many things the government did as well as the things it didn’t do—the things it did include the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira, which has led to a lot of inflation and has seriously, adversely affected people’s living conditions—and in the case of the north, there is also the special security problem, the insurgency, and the banditry, and the kidnapping. And the added political one that people are saying that there is disproportionate allocation of projects and appointments and all that.
“The APC leaders are aware of that. If you choose Katsina, which is the traditional political capital of the North to launch your campaign. So they said to start the rallies in Katsina and end in Lagos, yes, it sounds quite strategic, but probably the main reason is how do we now overcome this northern problem that APC seems to have now.”
Speaking on the factors that could determine the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, Jega said candidates’ performances in states where they finish second could prove as important as the states they win outright.
“Winning the election overall is not directly a factor of how many states you won outright.
“As I once argued, it is very important not only the states that you win outright, but the states where you came second and third. It’s very important because in the end, we are going to put it together. So, it’s important not only saying you win outright, but also where you come second, it’s important.”
On the implications of the court ruling against overseas chapters of political parties, Jega said the decision could affect the NDC’s diaspora support base, particularly in fundraising and campaign mobilisation, but would not prevent Nigerians abroad from supporting political candidates.
“NDC looks like it would be the party most affected by that decision. Why? Because the Obi movement, even back from 2022-2023, was largely had huge backing by diaspora Nigerians. And that was important, especially probably for fundraising purposes, because Nigerians living abroad, there are so many, and in some cases, fairly quite well-to-do, and if they make donations in foreign currency, it will help a lot.
“So, this court ruling, I think, will affect NDC more than the others.
“No, it will not stop them, because they have a stake and a deep interest in what happens inside Nigeria. Some of them plan to come back, some may not come back, but they will always be interested in what happens in Nigeria. And as I said, practically speaking, the fact that you don’t have a legally recognized party chapter in the UK or in the US does not stop your supporters from doing many things. They can be supporters without being chapters.”
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