Benny Gantz's withdrawal from the Knesset race could provide Ofer Winter with the additional votes he needs to cross the electoral threshold, according to an internal poll conducted in recent days for one of the coalition parties.
The vote also found that 24.2% of Blue and White voters would switch to Winter's People of Israel party if Gantz's party did not run in the election.
The finding is particularly significant amid growing pressure from the Right on Winter to withdraw from the race over concerns that votes cast for his party could be wasted.
The poll was conducted among 800 respondents from Israel's Jewish population. Blue and White received 1.2% of the vote, equivalent to approximately one Knesset seat, or around 40,000 voters.
According to respondents' answers, nearly a quarter of Gantz's voters could move to Winter after his withdrawal, potentially adding about 10,000 votes to Winter's total.
Could Gantz's withdrawal from Knesset elections push Winter over the electoral threshold?
For Winter, those additional votes could prove decisive. Recent polls have placed his party anywhere between four and five Knesset seats, putting it near or below the electoral threshold. In such a close race, even a few thousand additional votes could determine whether the party enters the Knesset.
Based on the estimate of approximately 40,000 votes per Knesset seat, the potential gain for Winter from Gantz's supporters amounts to roughly a quarter of a seat. While relatively small in parliamentary terms, it could carry considerable weight for a party fighting to enter the Knesset.
The poll also found that 31.1% of Blue and White voters do not know which party they would support following its withdrawal. Another 17.6% said they would switch to Gadi Eisenkot's party, 9.4% to the Reservists-Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, 9% to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, and 8.7% to the Democrats led by Yair Golan.
Winter holds a substantial lead over each of the other parties among Gantz voters who identified an alternative choice. His share in the poll exceeds that of Eisenkot, even though the latter has been considered one of the main potential beneficiaries of his former political partner's withdrawal.
Nearly a third of Blue and White voters surveyed have not yet chosen another party, so the vote distribution after Gantz's withdrawal remains uncertain. In the remaining days before the election, parties are expected to compete for these voters as well, a group that could influence the prospects of electoral lists polling near the threshold.
How will Blue and White supporters vote now?
The breakdown of responses indicates that Gantz's voters are not necessarily moving as a unified bloc toward parties in the anti-Netanyahu camp. Some favor Winter, others Likud, while others prefer Eisenkot, Hendel, or Golan. Blue and White's withdrawal could therefore affect more than one political camp, depending on where its supporters ultimately cast their ballots.
Gantz announced his withdrawal from the race following a prolonged period in which Blue and White struggled to cross the electoral threshold. He announced it on the eve of voting among IDF soldiers, and figures in the anti-Netanyahu bloc presented it as a move to prevent wasted votes.
In discussions preceding the decision, Gantz maintained that he still believed Blue and White's standing could be improved through its election campaign. The decision to withdraw was ultimately made when it became clear that the party had not recovered sufficiently in the polls, against the backdrop of the start of early voting. Once voting began, it would no longer be possible to prevent votes from being lost if they were cast for a party that failed to cross the electoral threshold.
Figures on the Right quickly seized on Gantz's withdrawal to intensify pressure on Winter. Ministers Gideon Sa'ar and Shlomo Karhi urged parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold to draw similar conclusions.
In recent days, figures close to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also pressured members of Winter's party, and one of its candidates, Davidi Ben-Zion, has already announced his withdrawal.
Against the backdrop of Likud's ongoing campaign against People of Israel, the internal poll raises the possibility that Gantz's withdrawal could instead strengthen Winter and improve his chances of entering the Knesset, even as figures on the Right attempt to persuade him to withdraw.
That possibility could also affect Likud's campaign calculations. If Winter gains support after Gantz withdraws and moves closer to comfortably crossing the electoral threshold, the argument that voting for him would necessarily waste a vote becomes harder to sustain.