G2Gbio (456160) has signed an evaluation agreement with UBT, a Chinese subsidiary of United Laboratories, for its long-acting injectable platform, raising the likelihood of a definitive licensing deal with a global drugmaker, according to an analyst report.
Shinhan Securities (008670) made the assessment in a report titled "G2Gbio: The Final Mock Exam Before a Big Pharma Deal," released on the 21st. G2Gbio signed the evaluation agreement with UBT on the 19th of this month. The target compound was not disclosed under a confidentiality clause, but analyst Eom Min-yong said the obesity drug UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG triple agonist, is likely included.
Novo Nordisk acquired global rights to UBT251 outside Greater China from UBT for $200 million upfront and up to $2 billion in total. Global Phase 1b/2a trials in obesity and Phase 2 trials in diabetes are under way, with a Phase 3 obesity trial planned for next year. In China, UBT is leading Phase 3 trials in obesity, diabetes and sleep apnea. Outside Greater China, Novo Nordisk holds the rights, while UBT retains the Greater China rights.
"If UBT, which holds the Greater China rights, first confirms the one-month sustained-release potential of InnoLAMP and goes on to sign a definitive agreement, there is no reason for Novo Nordisk, which holds the same compound, not to use it," Eom said. The report estimated that the technical evaluation is already well advanced and projected that it would conclude earlier than the 12-month period stated in the disclosure.
"It is also important that Nanexa, which signed a one-month formulation deal with Novo Nordisk, has no published research results on multi-agonists," Eom said. "Nanexa's atomic layer deposition metal oxide coating technology has no precedent for global approval, which is why expectations have been priced in at a low level."
Nanexa signed a long-acting formulation deal worth 1.6 trillion won (about $1.1 billion) with Novo Nordisk in September this year, yet its market capitalization stands at only about 300 billion won, fueling debate over the value of long-acting technology. By contrast, the report judged that microsphere-based approaches such as G2Gbio's have multiple cases of global approval, and that InnoLAMP is a validated platform that has secured human data for a one-month Wegovy formulation.
Separately, G2Gbio is preparing to enter global Phase 1 trials for the one-month Wegovy formulation covered by its March agreement with Samsung Bioepis. "The start of clinical trials alone will raise the likelihood of definitive agreements with other partners," Eom said. "The company is maintaining its target of breaking ground on a second plant this year, and once commercial production begins in 2029, it will have the capacity to manufacture and supply multiple long-acting products." He added that the several definitive agreements to be signed going forward will mark a positive turning point.
