Saka struggling? He’s more of a threat than ever

Mikel Arteta challenged Bukayo Saka to start scoring "two or three goals per game" before Arsenal's meeting with Lille. The winger clearly was listening. He only needed six minutes to find the net. And that was after providing an assist with his first touch.

The Arsenal boss was asked if his comments had served as motivation. "If that's the case, I'm very happy and I welcome it," he said with a smile, before revealing he had joked to Saka about "killing him" in his press conference before Tuesday's game.

Arteta was acknowledging that he had set Saka a borderline impossible target but the 25-year-old's game-changing appearance from the bench showed he is at least willing to have a crack at it.

Saka's focus appears streamlined to one thing: goals.

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His 71st-minute strike against Lille was his fourth in all competitions this season. There have been another two on international duty with England. And his overall total could easily be higher. Saka missed one-on-one chances against both Napoli and Leeds.

"If he misses the chance, so be it," Arteta said after the win over Leeds. "In the end, the more volume we generate, the bigger the probability of him scoring more goals. He is doing well and he could have had another four or five goals by now, easily."

His goal against Lille, swept home from Kai Havertz's cut-back, was his third this season to have been scored from either in or just outside the six-yard box. There has been a focus on getting him into more dangerous goalscoring positions and it is paying off.

The underlying data supports Arteta's comments about Saka's increased volume of chances. In the Premier League this season, he is averaging nearly twice as many open-play expected goals per 90 minutes as in any previous season for Arsenal, at 0.50.

"He has been getting in great positions, getting shots, getting one-touch finishes and tap-ins," added Arteta. He is on track to beat his career-high total of 20 goals in 2023/24, helped by what his manager calls a change of "mindset" about his scoring targets.

He has of course been helped by other factors, too. Most importantly, he is benefitting from being free of injury, along with key personnel around him. Saka is combining with Martin Odegaard again. He is routinely interchanging positions with Havertz.

Arteta has talked up the importance of those interchanges, which are allowing Saka to spend more time between the width of the posts. "That is the kind of unpredictability we have with that player, otherwise we know how the opponent is going to defend him."

The result of the adjustments is that only two players, out-and-out strikers Thierno Barry and Erling Haaland, have generated more expected goals in the Premier League this season.

Saka is actually creating less than in previous years but he ranks in the top three for shots on target and penalty-box touches. He has also made the most fast breaks of all Premier League players.

Among some fans, though, there is a perception that he is struggling to regain his best form after the injury issues that interrupted the previous two seasons. Saka did look some way below his best against Leeds before his explosive cameo against Lille.

Saka is held to higher standards than most but the numbers throw up little cause for alarm. Quite the opposite, in fact.

According to Gradient Sports, whose data grades players based on quality of execution rather than raw outcomes, Saka ranks as the best performer in the Premier League this season.

His overall grade of 88.5 puts him ahead of Joao Pedro, Elliot Anderson, Lewis Hall and Rayan Cherki.

His Arsenal team-mates Declan Rice and Odegaard are just outside the top five with overall grades of 87.3 and 84.9 respectively.

Saka's outstanding grade reflects the quality of his decision-making and his ability to execute in the moment. He may not be as eye-catching in style as some other wingers. He rarely over-elaborates on the ball. Instead, the efficiency of his actions is unrivalled.

Consider the fact that he only needed one touch to provide an assist against Lille on Tuesday. By contrast, Noni Madueke, the player he replaced, made 14 unsuccessful crosses before finally setting up the opener, despite getting into good areas repeatedly.

Saka also brings a level of completeness few can match and continues to contribute in all areas. "The reason he's graded so highly is that he's executing well across so many different categories," Rob Berwald of Gradient Sports tells Sky Sports.

The graphic above shows he has scored comfortably above the average for Premier League wingers this season in passing, shooting, crossing, ball carrying, duels and even one-vs-one defending. On top of everything, Saka always helps out his full-back.

Another area in which he excels, according to Gradient Sports, is in tackle resistance. Saka's ability to retain possession under pressure is another attribute which becomes invaluable in central zones as well as out on the right flank, facing up defenders.

His transformation into a penalty-box goal-getter continues a gradual evolution under Arteta, who told Sky Sports he needed time to "figure him out" back in 2021, moving him from left-back to left wing before he eventually flourished as a right winger.

Now he is becoming something else. A right winger, yes. But one with a narrower focus and a different mindset. The hope for Arsenal is that they will continue to reap the rewards of channelling his immense quality into the business of scoring goals.