France’s greenhouse gas emissions are expected to fall by 2.8 percent in 2026, slightly more than last year – but the pace of decarbonisation remains well below what is needed to meet the country’s climate targets.
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Emissions are forecast to reach around 349.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year, according to estimates published on Tuesday by Citepa, the organisation responsible for compiling France’s national emissions inventory.
The projected fall represents an improvement on the 2.1 percent decline recorded in 2025, when progress in cutting emissions slowed.
But Citepa said the picture was uneven. Emissions fell by 4.1 percent during the first half of 2026, while the decline is expected to slow to just 1.3 percent during the second half, partly because of an anticipated rise in emissions from the energy sector.
France’s current climate roadmap calls for greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 50 percent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Meeting that objective would require annual reductions of around 5 percent between 2024 and 2030.
“The reduction in emissions will therefore need to speed up over the coming years to stay within carbon budgets and meet France’s targets,” Citepa said.
Anne Bringault, programme director at the Climate Action Network France, which brings together a number of environmental organisations, said France’s ecological transition had yet to reach the pace necessary.
Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut described the latest decline as “encouraging”, while acknowledging that it was “not yet sufficient to meet our climate targets”.
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Buildings and transport lead reductions
The strongest improvement has come from residential and commercial buildings, where emissions are expected to fall by 5.9 percent over 2026 as a whole.
Citepa said the reduction was largely linked to lower emissions from heating, hot water and cooking, particularly because of a decline in natural gas consumption.
Transport has also recorded a significant fall, with emissions forecast to drop by 4.8 percent this year.
According to Citepa, much of that improvement reflects a sharp decline in diesel consumption, with sales down 7.3 percent in the first half of 2026.
The fall coincided with a surge in fuel prices caused by disruption to global energy supplies, including Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed fighting in the Middle East.
Bringault said the price pressures reinforced the case for reducing France’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.
“High prices for fuel and heating following the war in the Middle East, as well as for foodstuffs due to droughts and heatwaves exacerbated by climate change, are becoming unsustainable for many households and businesses,” she said.
“Moving away from imported fossil fuels and providing alternative solutions is all the more urgent.”
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Energy emissions rising
While most sectors are expected to record lower emissions this year, energy is moving in the opposite direction. Citepa said the sector “stands out due to an expected rise in emissions in 2026”.
After falling slightly during the first half of the year, emissions are expected to increase again during the second half, particularly because of higher emissions associated with electricity generation.
Citepa’s latest inventory does not take into account emissions and carbon absorption from land use and forests, which normally act as a major carbon sink by removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
However, they have come under increasing pressure in recent years, with drought, heatwaves and wildfires weakening the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb carbon.
Citepa said the scale of this summer’s fires was particularly striking. Around 77,000 hectares of land were burnt in mainland France between 1 January and 27 August, excluding areas subject to controlled burning.
The fires are estimated to have released around 5.7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere.
That was 43 percent more than in 2022, another year marked by exceptionally severe wildfires, and more than twice the level recorded in 2025.
(with AFP)