UFC 333’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Volkanovski vs. Evloev

UFC 333is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 24, 2026) from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE and streaming exclusively on Paramount+ (watch here). This marquee PLE has two title fights up top with Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev for the Featherweight title and Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili 3 for the Bantamweight title.

The main card also has Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov, Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev and Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita. Those should all be fun.

The featured ‘Prelim’ is Dominick Reyes vs. Azamat Murzakanov. There’s also Nikita Krylov against hot prospect Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev and Abus Magomedov vs. Cam Rowston.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 333 Main Card Money Line Odds

Alexander Volkanovski (-110) vs. Movsar Evloev (-110)

Volkanovski comes into this one on the heels of his 38th birthday. His last bit of action was his pretty dominant decision victory over Diego Lopes at UFC 325 in January. That was an immediate rematch for Lopes (for some reason). Those two Lopes wins saw Volkanovski rebound from his KO losses to Ilia Topuria and Islam Makhachev.

Evloev finally gets his title shot here after going 10-0 in UFC and 20-0 overall. His last fight was a majority decision over Lerone Murphy. He was more striker than wrestler against Murphy, perhaps sensing he needed to up the entertainment value to confirm his shot at gold. Before out-boxing Murphy he out-wrestled Aljamain Sterling and Arnold Allen.

I think we might hear “And new!” after this one, folks. And I think we might get there after a bit of a slog.

I think Evloev, now he’s secured his title shot, is going to lean back towards his wrestling to secure the belt. He looked great on the feet against Murphy and people were crazy to call that boring fight. But now he’s done that, I think he’s going to simply try to get Volkanovski down and lay on him for five rounds.

Easier said than done, right?

Well, Volkanovski is one of our Featherweight GOATs, but the man is almost forty. And the late thirties have, historically, not been kind to fighters in these lighter weight classes. Volkanovski’s wrestling has been sensational throughout his career, but he’s not faced that many wrestlers — especially during his championship reigns.

His most recent wrestler opponent was Islam Makhachev (though, our number one pound-for-pound fighter has shown he’s far more than a wrestler). Makhachev didn’t need to wrestle in their rematch, but he went 4-9 on takedowns in their first fight and sucked up 7:37 of control time. Makhachev did have plenty of size over Volkanovski, though.

Evloev is just a little bigger than Volkanovski, but his wrestling acumen is up there with Makhachev and he’s far more dedicated to winning on the ground than Makhachev is (since Makhachev is confident he can win elsewhere).

I think Evloev’s focused and prolonged wrestling attacks are going to wear Volkanovski down. I think he might stop a lot of this early on, but over five rounds, I can see Evloev being the one who is able to peak in the third and dominate those last two periods.

I’d love to be wrong here and see Volkanovski execute another perfect gameplan, where he hurts Evloev on the feet and takes the steam out of those future takedown attempts. But I think Evloev is just too good at wrestling and 38 is too old to hold off another young challenger.

Best bet: Movsar Evloev moneyline (-110)

Petr Yan (-162) vs. Merab Dvalishvili (+136)

This is an immediate rematch from December’s UFC 323 where Yan beat Dvalishvili by unanimous decisions with scores of 49-46, 48-47, 49-46. I scored it 49-46 Yan on the night. Here’s what I wrote to sum up the bout:

Petr Yan fought a perfect fight to win the UFC Bantamweight title for a second time. He showed early that he wouldn’t be forced to play Merab Dvalishvili’s game, stuffing all takedowns in the first two rounds. With all the time spent on the feet he was able to hurt and bloody up Dvalishvili. That didn’t take much steam out of Dvalishvili’s famous motor, but it helped Yan swell with confidence. He got taken down a few times after that, but that wasn’t enough to change the course of the fight. Yan had a bit of an energy dip in the middle of the fight, but after landing a huge body kick he got his second wind and was able to kick it into high gear to dominate much of the championship rounds.

My big question mark for this fight is which Dvalishvili shows up. Because I think the Dvalishvili who fought Yan in December was the worst version we’ve seen of him. And that’s because he was fighting his fourth title fight of the year. That was unheard of then and still feels crazy, especially when you’re talking about a fighter who largely wins five round decisions. He went five rounds in three of those bouts last year, with the fourth being his third round submission over Sean O’Malley (see that here).

Dvalishvili was trying to do something special last year and I think it caught up to him. It’s like what we saw with Alex Pereira, with too much activity (and plenty of side quests) leading to an off night.

If anyone could pull off four title defenses in a year, you’d think it would be Dvalishvili — given his amazing motor. But I think that experiment showed that even the best gas tank in the game is going to struggle with four five rounders and the fight camps between them in a given year.

All that being said, Yan deserves a lot of credit. He was amazing in that fight and he really hurt Dvalishvili on the feet. I still think about Dvalishvili yelping from that body kick. It might be impossible to tire Dvalishvili out in a fight, but it is possible to hurt him. And both those things have the same effect, in slowing down Dvalishvili’s takedown spamming and making each shot less and less potent.

Personally, I’m putting a lot of stock into Dvalishvili’s schedule getting the better of him last year. I think with almost a year to re-assess and prepare for a single fight, we should see him back to his best, like he was in 2023 when he blanked Yan with three 50-45 scorecards.

Best bet: Merab Dvalishvili moneyline (+136)

Lone’er Kavanagh (-112) vs. Ramazan Temirov (-108)

Kavanagh’s UFC career has been a roller coaster. He looked like a future champion when he beat Brandon Moreno in Mexico City in February. But that win is bookended by stoppage losses to Brandon Royval and Charles Johnson (see it here).

Temirov has looked like a Jon Lineker clone in his UFC career so far. Last time out he got a first round KO over former title challenger Steve Erceg (see it here). Before that he overpowered Charles Johnson and he debuted with a stoppage win over CJ Vergara.

I really want to believe in Temirov, but it feels like — at some point — someone is going to expose him as a one-dimensional fighter with one punch (right overhand) and one kick (spinning back kick). I hope that doesn’t happen for a while, though. Temirov looks like he’s being controlled by a button-basher and it’s very fun to watch.

Fortunately, I don’t think Kavanagh is going to be the one to control and tire out Temirov and then test what he’s really got. Kavanagh loves a brawl, too. I think he’s going to be willing to stand toe-to-toe with Temirov and test his more crisp boxing against Temirov’s haymakers, thrown from his heels.

Erceg was hoping to do the same thing, but as soon as he got glanced by one of those swings, it was all over for him. I don’t know how much of that is down to Temirov’s striking and how much is down to Erceg just being on a downward spiral.

I’m going to lean into the fun, though, and say Temirov will Tasmanian Devil his way to another win.

Best bet: Ramazan Temirov moneyline (-108)

Alexander Volkov (-120) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+100)

The 37-year-old Volkov was too technical for Waldo Cortes-Acosta in May. He outpointed him for a unanimous decision. Before that he took a split decision over Jailton Almeida, benefiting from some spite scorecards aimed at the painfully negative fighting style of Almeida. That win came after his horrible scorecard robbery loss against Ciryl Gane in 2024.

Kuniev is 34 and three fights into his UFC career. He stopped Tyrell Fortune in July and also has a decision win over Jailton Almeida. He also suffered a scorecard robbery, too, when he lost to Curtis Blaydes in his debut.

Kuniev is posing the same kind of risks to Volkov that Sergei Pavlovich did. In that fight, Volkov showed tremendous intelligence and discipline to punish Pavlovich with his jab every time he even thought about throwing a looping punch.

I think Volkov’s straight punches are going to cause big problems for Kuniav. And, unlike with Pavlovich, Volkov has a significant reach advantage here (four inches). Kuniev will want to get inside and make this ugly, but Volkov has shown he’s pretty good at navigating a clinch.

I’ll take Drago to win this all-Russian affair.

Best bet: Alexander Volkov moneyline (-120)

Aaron Pico (-115) vs. Losene Keita (-105)

Pico’s UFC debut ended with a spinning back elbow KO from Lerone Murphy (see it here). He regrouped after that and took a decision over fellow Bellator veteran Patricio Pitbull. The once super prospect is now 30 years old and a 14-5 pro.

Keita obliterated Muhammad Naimov in September and then hit perhaps one of the best UFC celebrations we’ve ever seen. That was his first win in UFC after his debut was spoiled by a split decision loss to Nathaniel Wood. Keita is a former two division champion in OKTAGON (a promotion that deserves to be taken seriously).

I’ve been a fan of Keita for a while and I’m glad he’s now settled into the UFC roster, after that weigh-in miss that cost him a debut against Pitbull.

Keita has probably never seen wrestling like what Pico can do. But I think his size and athleticism might help him combat that. He’s very explosive and I can see him bursting up from the ground while Pico tries to keep him still.

On the feet, Keita is very dangerous and I have some concerns over Pico’s chin. Four of his nine pro losses are KO/TKO. One of those was a shoulder injury, so throw that out. But he was starched by Henry Corrales and Adam Borics.

Both those losses came with Pico being a little lax on defense. Those happened a while ago, but I think he’s still going to be open for the kind of offense Keita will be throwing at him.

Best bet: Losene Keita moneyline (-105)

UFC 333 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Azamat Murzakanov (-205) vs. Dominick Reyes (+170)

Murzakanov is coming off an aura draining head kick loss over Paulo Costa (see it here). Before that happened he stopped Aleksandar Rakic, with a jab (see it here). He’s 6-1 in UFC with all but one fight being finishes.

Reyes ‘beat’ Johnny Walker in April, by split decision, in what might have been the worst fight of the year. Before that he was blown away by Carlos Ulberg, in what was essentially a title eliminator. He earned that shot with a three fight KO streak over Nikita Krylov, Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby.

I have been skeptical of Reyes for a while now. He saved his career by beating Jacoby. He was on a four fight winning streak before that. But his win over Smith was a gimme (remember Smith was weeping on his way to the cage) and Krylov was coming off a two year absence. And the less said about that Walker ‘win’ the better.

In my mind, his last few years have been far worse than they look on paper. And that all gives me far more reasons to fade him than Murzakanov’s loss to Costa.

Best bet: Azamat Murzakanov moneyline (-205)

Nikita Krylov (+360) vs. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-470)

Krylov had his jaw re-arranged by Robert Whittaker in July (see it here). He’s lost three of his last four. The bright spot was a third round finish over Modestas Bukauskas. The losses were both stoppages, to Bogdan Guskov and Dominick Reyes.

Yakhyaev has steamrolled his first three opponents in UFC. He submitted Raffael Cerqueira in 33 seconds for his debut (see it here). Then he took his foot off the gas and went a whole three minutes before stopping Brendson Ribeiro. He sped things up in his last fight, though, KOing Julius Walker in just eight seconds (see it here).

This is great match-making. Yakhyaev is getting a name here, but not someone who feels like too much of a jump for him. Krylov can surprise anyone. But his durability issues are going to be a problem for him in this match-up.

Yakhyaev hits like a truck and he’s fast, too. Krylov’s 48 percent sig. striking defense means he’s probably going to get hit early and often.

Krylov is crafty with his wrestling and submission fighting. But Yakhyaev has shown us he’s no one trick pony and that he’s a big threat on the ground, too.

We’ve seen a ton of upsets this year, which might be why Yakhyaev’s line is not something like -1000 for this fight, but I would be very surprised if Krylov is the guy to fraud check him.

If, like me, you believe Yakhyaev is going to stop this fight early there’s zero value to be found anywhere. I’m going to have to go with a prop, but even that’s not giving me great odds.

Best bet: Yakhyaev to win in round 1 (-160)

UFC 333 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Abus Magomedov (-122) vs. Cam Rowston (+102)

Magomedov is coming off a big win over Michael Oleksiejczuk, who he submitted with a guillotine in the first round (see it here). That saw him rebound from a submission loss to Joe Pyfer last year. He’s 5-3 in UFC with his other losses being to champ Sean Strickland and contender Caio Borralho.

Rowston is 3-0 to start his UFC career. He’s not had much trouble so far, starting things off with finishes over Andre Petroski and Cody Brundage. In May he won a decision over Robert Bryczek.

I’ve really enjoyed watching Rowston over these past two years. He’s an exciting fighter and his post fight interviews are genuinely, and intentionally, hilarious.

This is a huge step up for the Aussie, though. Magomedov’s record might not be much to write home about, but his strength of schedule is among the highest in the division. Magomedov is more technical than Rowston. And Rowston is more athletic and powerful than Magomedov.

Rowston has also benefited from having a size advantage over past opponents. He won’t have that here. Magomedov’s length is pretty sneaky. He’ll match Rowston’s 78 inch reach.

I’d love to see Rowston win and this Golden Generation of Australian talent be a force across multiple divisions. But I think Magomedov is just too technical for him and that his wrestling and submissin game will really help him out over the still quite raw Rowston.

Should be a great fight either way.

Best bet: Abus Magomedov moneyline (-122)

Grant Dawson (-122) vs. Nurullo Aliev (+102)

Dawson got back on the horse with a dominating win over Mateusz Rebecki in May. That came after he was flat-lined by Manuel Torres in December (see it here). the Torres loss broke his three fight win streak, which started after he was starched by King Green in 2023 (see it here).

Aliev is 12-0 and coming off a dominating win over Mike Davis. He’s won four times in UFC and gotten wins over Shem Rock, Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves.

This is an interesting and unusual match-up from UFC in 2026. We’ve got two smothering wrestlers here. This means we’re probably going to see a lot of grappling and not the first round KOs that UFC seems to be engineering to happen a lot more frequently.

I’m really not sure who is going to come out on top of this wrestling battle and I think we’re destined for some very tough rounds to score. Dawson’s strength of schedule is leagues ahead of what Aliev has dealt with. Though, the eye test on Aliev is pretty convincing.

Dawson is great at piling on ground and pound and wearing guys down. All that activity on top gives the bottom guy more opportunities to escape, though. So if he’s getting on top of Aliev, his tendencies might mean that he doesn’t get to stay on top very long. Aliev is more of a concrete blanket on top (just 13 sig. strikes in 12:25 minutes of control time against Davis), so he might end up racking up more control time.

With this scenario in mind, I’ll take Aliev.

Best bet: Nurullo Aliev moneyline (+102)

Colby Thicknesse (+410) vs. Asaf Chopurov (-550)

Thicknesse, who trains under Alexander Volkanovski, has won decisions over Vince Morales and Josias Musasa in the Octagon. He made his debut in February, 2025 and dropped a spirited decision to Aleksandre Topuria. He’s a former champ in the HEX promotion in Australia.

Chopurov is making his promotional debut here. He’s 10-0 and has vacated the UAE Warriors Bantamweight title to be here. He trains with ONE and K-1 champion/tournament winner Chingiz Allazov.

I watched Chopurov’s last win, where a guy basically ran chin up into his overhand right. He won with a smothering wrestling display before that. He won his previous fight with a bodylock takedown and took the back for a rear naked choke. His double underhooks were his biggest weapon in that fight, not something you can easily get on someone who knows what they are doing.

I’m a little wary of Chopurov’s odds here, since he’s looked far better than the competition in UAE Warriors, but is untested at this level. I think Thicknesse knows enough not to walk into a punch or concede double underhooks.

I’ll go the over here, thinking Chopurov is not going to come in and smoke a young UFC veteran.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+124)

Abubakar Vagaev (-170) vs. Jacob Malkoun (+142)

Vagaev won his debut over Saygid Izagakhmaev in July, at the last Abu Dhabi card. That was a Chechnya vs. Dagestan fight. Vagaev had his fellow Chechen Khamzat Chimaev in his corner. He’s a former champion in ACA (Ramazan Kadyrov’s pet MMA promotion). The 33 year old Vagaev has fought almost all his 29 fight career in ACA and promotions that would eventually become ACA.

Malkoun has won his last three. Those are decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Torrez Finney and a TKO over Andre Petroski. There was a two year hiatus mixed into that run. He’s now 6-3 in UFC.

Vagaev looked somewhat like Chimaev in his debut, wrestling down Izagakhmaev and making the fight both one-sided and boring. I think it’s very likely he does that to Malkoun here.

He’s got some size on Malkoun and Malkoun’s takedown defense is a pretty mid 55 percent. Malkoun has been using the takedown as his point of offense a lot recently, but I don’t think he’s good enough to win a wrestling match against Vagaev.

Best bet: Abubakar Vagaev moneyline (-170)

Daniel Santos (-125) vs. Bolaji Oki (+105)

Santos is coming off a TKO loss to Doo Ho Choi. That spoiled a four fight winning streak for the Brazilian. That streak included a TKO over Joo Sang Yoo (see it here) and a decision over Jeong Yeong Lee.

Oki last appeared in March, where he was stopped by Manoel Sousa in the third round (see it here). Before that he was ground and pounded by Mason Jones (see it here). He’s 2-3 in UFC now.

This is the kind of fight UFC wants to see. Both of these guys absorb and land over five sig. strikes a minute. So we should see both of them getting crack a lot here. For me, that means durability might be the difference-maker. Oki has been stopped in his last two fights, so that means I’m leaning Santos here. This could really go either way, though.

Best bet: Daniel Santos moneyline (-125)

Noah Gugnon (+130) vs. Kody Steele (-155)

Gugnon debuted on the Serbia card in August and earned a first round submission over vaguely local talent Milos Janicic. That got him to 10-2 as a pro, with most of his notable fights coming in France’s Ares FC.

Steele used his slick submission game to tap Dom Mar Fan with a heel hook in May (see that here). That came after he lost a decision against Rongzhu (someone he decided to stand and bang with). He’s now 8-1 in his career.

It took a few tries, but Steele might have learned that he needs to do what he’s best at to get wins in UFC. If he commits to grappling Gugnon, he should win. However, coming off a win might feel like he’s playing with house money and he might try his luck at standing and banging again.

I think this is a close fight because of Steele’s mindset and not his skill level. I do think he’s more skilled than Gugnon, though, so I’ll just go with him and hope he fights a smart fight.

Best bet: Kody Steele moneyline (-155)

Iasmin Lucindo (-375) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+295)

Lucindo had her run to a Strawweight title fight dented by the veteran Amanda Lemos, who broke her four fight winning streak with a unanimous decision in March, 2025. Since then Lucindo has taken a decision over Angela Hill. She also had a bout with recent title challenger Gillian Robertson fall through.

Caliari is just 1-2 in UFC. Her win was a submission over Shauna Bannon in May. Her two losses are to strikers Carli Judice and Ernesta Kareckaite.

Caliari doesn’t have the firepower on the feet to hang with Lucindo. She also absorbs a pretty bad 5.59 sig. strikes a minute. Lucindo is going to have a four inch reach advantage on her, too. So I think this could be a painful night for Caliari.

Lucindo has not been a finisher in UFC, but she has a lot working in her favor in this match-up. She also needs to make a statement after going from main card to curtain jerker. I’ll take the under, which has lots of value.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+210)

UFC 333 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …

Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ (+400)

I’ve picked Movsar Evloev to win this, but I had a dream where Volkanovski won by head kick. I don’t make a habit out of this, but that feels like a sign! I can see Evloev ducking for a takedown and putting his head right onto a knee or shin that’s on the way up (just like Marlon Moraes caught Aljamain Sterling).

Two bet parlay: Merab Dvalishvili and Losene Keita to win (+395)

It’s very hard to beat someone in MMA twice in a row. I think a well rested Dvalishvili prevents Petr Yan from accomplishing that feat on Saturday. And I think Keita is the real deal and that his striking will be too punishing for Aaron Pico to handle.

Kavanagh vs. Temirov to end in Split or Majority Decision (+1400)

I think this fight could be nuts and, even though, I sense a finish coming, I think there’s a chance we get a knock down brawl for the ages with these two. That would be fun.

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