Who will be Israel's Prime Minister after the elections? The results of Israel's Election Barometer, conducted by the Miskar-Revadim Institute for Arutz Sheva-Israel National News, show that supporters of the current coalition are confident that Benjamin Netanyahu will continue in the position at a higher rate than opposition voters expect a candidate from the anti-Netanyahu bloc to head the government.
The poll focused on 744 voters for Jewish parties. For the sake of analysis, the coalition bloc included the Likud, Religious Zionist, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), and Noam parties. The anti-Netanyahu bloc included Yashar, Together, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats.
65% of coalition supporters predict that Netanyahu will remain in place as Prime Minister following the elections; only 1.5% predict that a candidate from the anti-Netanyahu bloc will replace him. The remaining respondents, approximately 33%, believe that there will either be another round of elections (16%) or a rotation between candidates (2.1%), or say that it is impossible to predict (16%).
Supporters of the anti-Netanyahu bloc gave the opposite answer, albeit slightly less decisive: 48% predict that one of the candidates from their preferred bloc will become Prime Minister, 8.6% foresee that Netanyahu will remain on the throne, and the rest either predict another round of elections (21%), a rotation (5.4%), or were unable to predict (16%).
A comparison of the two blocs shows the lack of symmetry: while hardly any Netanyahu-bloc supporters expect an anti-Netanyahu bloc candidate to win the premiership, a small minority of anti-Netanyahu voters expect that the position will remain in Netanyahu's hands.
The difference between the blocs is also seen in the confidence with which supporters answer. Among coalition supporters who expect Netanyahu to remain in power, the respondents' average confidence in their prediction is 4.33 out of 5. Opposition voters who believe that one of their bloc's candidates will become Prime Minister said so with an average confidence rating of 3.97 out of 5.
Interestingly, among Netanyahu bloc voters, the results are very similar for men and women. Among opposition voters, the percentage who believe Netanyahu will form the government is also nearly identical in both groups, at around 8.5%. However, there is a gap in the share who expect a candidate from the anti-Netanyahu bloc to form the government: 55% of male opposition voters believe an anti-Netanyahu bloc candidate will head the government, compared with 43% of women.
Confidence among opposition voters who expect a government led by an anti-Netanyahu bloc candidate is also higher among men: 4.27 out of 5, compared with 3.65 among women.
The parties led by Winter, Hendel-Zelicha, and Gantz were not included in either bloc for this analysis. Interestingly, in all three parties, the most common expectation is that another election will be held: 63% of Gantz supporters, 46% of Hendel-Zelicha supporters, and 38% of Winter supporters believe this will be the outcome.