From 1896 until 2016, the presidential victor won Ohio in all but two elections. However, Donald Trump’s dominance in the state has led many to conclude that Ohio has moved from purple to red. After all, in 2024, he won by 11 points and the lone statewide Democrat, Sherrod Brown, was bounced from the Senate. But to channel Ferris Bueller, “Life moves pretty fast,” and suddenly Democrats appear to have a bona fide chance to have Brown reclaim a spot in the Senate and to win the governorship this fall.
Whether one believes in the accuracy of the polls or not, Republicans themselves must believe the state is close, as any Ohioan with a pulse cannot escape the barrage of political advertising saturating televisions, streaming services, social media, billboards and mailboxes. Suddenly it feels like 2004 all over again. But it also suggests something more about what it means to be successful in Ohio, and that lies in populist messaging rather than partisan messaging.
Populism can take many forms, but I focus on issues that pit ordinary citizens against concentrated political or economic power, regardless of whether that power is associated with government, corporations or cultural elites.
For years analysts have viewed Ohio through the lens of culture wars and partisan polarization. While often true, it tells only explains part of Ohio’s political landscape. In August, 2023, Ohioans decisively rejected an attempt to make it harder to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot by a 57 percent to 43 percent margin. Just three months later, Ohioans enshrined abortion access in the state’s Constitution (57 percent to 43 percent) and legalized recreational marijuana (57 percent to 43 percent). Neither of these issues aligned with the stances of Republican leaders in the state, but both suggest a belief in self-determination and limited government. Both are staples of traditional populism and not owned by either of the two main political parties.
Our own BGSU/YouGov polling suggests economic populism could also be moving voters in the state. The economy remains the most important issue to voters, followed closely by inflation. Notably government corruption is also among the top issues. Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) say the economy has gotten worse in the past year and 61 percent say the country is on the wrong track. Although Ohioans may remain culturally divided, economically, they are becoming more populist.
While polarization persists in the state, our polling strongly suggests a consistent distrust toward concentrated economic power and concerns over big tech. For instance, data centers had the lowest rating of any issue or group we tested (net -48), followed by billionaires (-41) and artificial intelligence (-34). A majority (51 percent) believe wealthier communities benefit the most from Ohio's current tax policies, while nearly seven in 10 believe those policies favor some communities over others.
Concerns over billionaires, big tech and tax policy are crystallized by the disdain toward data centers in the state. Nearly 8 in 10 support a temporary moratorium on data centers, 75 percent oppose data centers in their own communities, 63 percent oppose their expansion across Ohio and just 29 percent think that data centers are mostly good for local tax revenue.
Conversely, we find that public school teachers (+51) and medical experts (+47) were among the most positively viewed and 60 percent believe the decline of labor unions has been at least somewhat bad for working people.
In our April poll, we found similar numbers toward public libraries (+74), firefighters (+72), police officers (+58) and public health officials (+31). Taken together, it would appear that groups and institutions that serve more common people are viewed more favorably. Indeed, these areas are rated far more favorably than the political parties themselves.
Both Republicans in Congress and Democrats in Congress receive net negative ratings, as do both the MAGA movement and Democratic socialists. Neither Democrats nor Republicans fared very well when we asked respondents which party they think is more likely to stand up for ordinary people, fight for working families, care about people like themselves, understand everyday Ohioans and keep promises. Independents largely chose neither and significant numbers of Democrats and Republicans agreed with them.
Ohioans appear less divided over who should have power than over who currently does. Voters are deeply skeptical of concentrated economic power, highly supportive of trusted community institutions, and are motivated more by fairness, affordability and accountability than ideological labels. This is how many presidential candidates have won the state going back to 1896. Successful candidates have campaigned much more under the populist label than their party labels.
Recently, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all emphasized populist messaging over their partisanship. Donald Trump has put this on steroids to great effect. Yet, as the economic promises have not materialized, his approval has waned and presented a new opportunity for Democrats to regain lost ground. Voters will ultimately determine whether they get the chance to do so.
Robert Alexander is professor of political science and founding director of the Democracy and Public Policy Network at Bowling Green State University (BGSU), and director the BGSU/YouGov poll.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.