The season for the Toronto Blue Jays that began with understandably high expectations in the wake of their American League Championship last fall ended in disappointment, as the club failed to defend their title and missed making the postseason.
During the campaign, the Blue Jays also bid goodbye to a handful of players, including pitchers Kevin Gausman and Jeff Hoffman.
Speaking of pitchers, Shane Bieber is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent after completing the second year of his two-year, $26 million contract. What are the chances that he’ll be back with the club in 2027?
What Are The Chances Of Shane Bieber Returning To The Toronto Blue Jays Next Season?
Are the Blue Jays going to bring back Bieber, who missed the start of this most recent season and was limited to just 11 games?
MLB analyst Keegan Matheson explored the issue in a recent piece, in which he notes that his Bieber’s next contract could look a lot different than many expected just a few months ago, especially coming off another injury-shortened season
“Bieber, still just 31, is obviously the most attractive name among the Blue Jays’ pending free agents,” Matheson wrote via MLB.com. “For a brief, healthy moment in 2026, it felt like Bieber could pitch his way into the qualifying offer conversation, but now he profiles as a rebound candidate, fresh off a 4.37 ERA over 11 starts in another injury-shortened season.”
Matheson then indicated that the Blue Jays could have an intriguing way to bring him back without making a major financial commitment.
“Depending on the overall value, club and player options come into play here, and incentives could be attractive to either side,” he said. “The Blue Jays leaned heavily into incentives for innings pitched with Scherzer this past year, whose base salary of $3 million had $10 million in potential incentives for innings pitched. That’s the extreme end of the spectrum, but still, incentives feel probable in a Bieber deal.”
He concluded:
“Bieber remains an option, though, and if he truly believed in the Blue Jays to help establish his free-agent value a year ago, not much has changed.”
This season, Bieber went 5-2 with a 4.37 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts.
Shane Bieber Is Coming Off His First Full Campaign In Toronto
Bieber was taken by the Cleveland Indians in the fourth round of the 2016 MLB Draft, and he immediately started making his way up in the organization. After reaching the majors in 2018, he won 11 games as a rookie before breaking out in 2019, when he made his first All-Star team, won All-Star Game MVP and finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting.
Bieber had a strong season in 2020, leading the American League in wins, ERA and strikeouts to win the pitching Triple Crown and unanimously claim the AL Cy Young Award.
He battled injuries after his 2020 Cy Young season but remained effective when healthy, including a 2022 campaign in which he posted a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings and won a Gold Glove.
An elbow injury led to Tommy John surgery in 2024, and Cleveland traded him to Toronto in July 2025 as he rehabbed. Bieber returned that August, helping the Blue Jays reach the World Series before exercising his $16 million option for 2026.
This article was originally published on HEAVY
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