Sri Lanka’s economy is expected to sustain its recovery over the next two years, although growth is projected to moderate amid mounting global uncertainties, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook.
In its World Economic Outlook 2026: Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, the IMF projects Sri Lanka’s economy to expand by 4% in 2026, slowing to 3.7% in 2027, following estimated growth of 5% in 2025.
Inflation, meanwhile, is forecast to rise to 5.3% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, reversing the average deflation rate of 0.5% recorded in 2025.
Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 3.9% throughout the forecast period.
The projections come amid growing pressure on the global economy from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, elevated energy prices, geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Sri Lanka’s external position is also expected to weaken, with the current account balance projected to shift from a surplus of 1.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to deficits of 0.5% in 2026 and 0.3% in 2027.
The IMF’s outlook points to continued economic expansion in Sri Lanka, but with slower growth, rising inflation and a narrowing external surplus giving way to current account deficits over the forecast period.