QB Stock Market Week 6: Can Dak Overcome Cowboys? Can Seahawks Overcome Darnold?

Kyler Murray had the best throw of the week. Dak Prescott had some of the worst. Sam Darnold threw a pair of interceptions versus the 49ers, and Jayden Daniels took a sack at the end of overtime that ensured a tie against the Giants. Meanwhile, Jared Goff — of all people — is off to a historically prolific start for the Lions. Let’s get into all of it. These aren’t your typical QB rankings. I’m focused on contextualizing the fluctuations of starters' performances throughout the season. No one — not even Josh Allen — is safe at the top. No one — not even Malik Willis — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds the most importance: What have you done for your team lately? Previous: Offseason | Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 Daniel Jones has looked overwhelmed — all season — by what the Colts have asked him to do. Their plan stunk from the beginning. I’ve been on record saying this season was destined for implosion. Unfortunately, I’ve been correct. On offense, it simply never made sense. It’s one thing to return from his Achilles injury. It’s another thing to face expectations that — somehow — this offense would regain its form from the beginning of 2025 (which was already fading at the time of his injury). But the biggest issue is that the Colts have struggled to keep receiver Alec Pierce on the field because of injuries — and they traded away receiver Michael Pittman, a trustworthy possession receiver. Without WR1 or WR2 from 2025, Jones has had to make the most of receiver Josh Downs, whose explosive plays aren’t enough to carry a whole offense. That’s not exactly a surprise. The surprise is that tight end Tyler Warren is averaging 7.1 yards per reception — struggling to find room to run after his 30 receptions, the eighth-most in the NFL. There’s more that’s underwhelming. Running back Jonathan Taylor is averaging 3.9 yards per carry — on pace for his worst season and well behind his previous worst at 4.4 in 2023 when he played only 10 games. That’s in part because he’s faced the fifth-most stacked boxes (21) in the NFL. Colts opponents are stacking those boxes because they’re not afraid of Jones, especially when he doesn’t have Pierce to throw to. The Colts' offense is functioning at an even lower level than you’d expect. In turn, so is Jones. In Week 5 against the Steelers — whose defense is good but beatable — Dimes couldn’t find the end zone. He was 24 for 44 for 267 yards. His completion percentage (CPOE) was -3.8 and was especially bad when the Steelers did not blitz him (-8.5%). Defenses are daring him to pick them apart. He can’t do it. Defenses are daring him to throw deep. He can’t do it. Defenses are making Indy's middling starting QB look like a backup, which is especially frustrating for this franchise when considering Jones' cap hit in 2026 is just $19 million. Big changes are coming for the Colts, who don’t even have their 2027 first-round pick to look forward to. (They traded it to the Jets.) I’ve been tracking Sam Darnold’s season, but for the most part, I thought he was about as bad (and good) as he’d been last year. But that’s not the case. He’s worse. Much worse. Through four appearances (and, really, just three, because he left Week 1 after only a few plays), he has 755 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions. The turnovers are a red flag, but … at least he’s posting production in yardage and scoring. Right? Well, the advanced stats tell a different story. Darnold has a -.19 expected points added per dropback, which is a tough fall from a much healthier .07 in 2025. The loss to the 49ers emphasized Darnold’s struggles with inconsistency and turnovers. The team around Darnold also felt different. Last year, the Seahawks figured out how to win games like this past Sunday. They’d do it despite Darnold. During their postseason run, they hit the sweet spot where Darnold was playing the best football of his life — and it meshed perfectly with ascending superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III and an elite group of defensive playmakers. Without Walker this year, the running game hasn’t supported Darnold with shorter second and third downs. So Darnold is facing longer odds at conversions, and he’s forcing it, leading to more mistakes and more turnovers. It’s making me think that maybe Darnold is something of a Joe Flacco. Both QBs strung together a memorable playoff run when they caught fire and played at a level they’d never reached before. But the work before and the work after? That’s all fallen somewhere in a range of slightly below average and slightly above average. And for what it’s worth, Darnold also shares Flacco’s propensity for trusting his arm too much — and forcing the football into turnover-worthy plays and interceptions. Maybe Darnold finds his 2026 postseason form again — and this current lapse is a lingering issue from the Week 1 hip injury. But it’s more likely that this is who Darnold is. The 3-2 Seahawks, whose next three games are against the Broncos, the Chiefs and the Bears, will have to figure out how to get back to working around their QB. Jayden Daniels' performance in Week 5 was a reminder of how young he is as a pro football player. Maybe too young, if you ask me. Maybe immature on a few levels. But it’s important to remember this was just his 30th appearance in the NFL, given all his injuries. He hasn’t played two full seasons yet. That won’t make the Commanders’ final play make any more sense. But it does add context to their fiasco in overtime, where they let time expire after Daniels took a sack to let time run out. We know, per coach Dan Quinn, that the fateful play was designed for an outside throw (where the pass-catcher can get to the sideline and stop the clock) or a clock-stopping throwaway. Quinn took blame for even calling that play when they didn’t need to gain any more yards. But his revelation — "outside throw or a clock" — is an indictment of Daniels’ situational awareness. Because he ran to the left and took a sack near the line of scrimmage. Did he think he had a timeout and was he placing the ball on the left hash? I’m not sure. But the quarterback was clearly confused about the situation. "We’ve gotta stop the clock," Daniels said. We know the situation. We’ve gotta relay that as an offense. It starts with everyone — top down. Ultimately it’s on me," It’s overtime. You need to know how many timeouts you have. Period. Most high school quarterbacks have more situational awareness than Daniels demonstrated. It’s good that he concluded by saying it’s on him. Because before that, he vaguely pointed his fingers at the coaching staff — perhaps for not reminding him that he didn't have a timeout left. It reveals two points of immaturity: 1) Daniels needs reminding of timeouts (and general hand-holding) at the game’s most crucial moments, and 2) Daniels isn’t wise enough to simply take the public blame. His comments have, no doubt, accelerated coach Dan Quinn’s departure. The ending sequence marred what was otherwise an impressive game from Daniels. He had 300 total yards (199 passing; 103 rushing) and two rushing touchdowns. He had the most scramble yards of his career, per Next Gen Stats. And Daniels hit 20.54 mph on his 38-yard TD run, the fastest play of his career. Kyler Murray had the best throw of the week, given the stakes and the risk and the … everything. The Vikings were trailing by a point in the third quarter when Murray stood in a clean pocket and fired the ball into the deep left corner of the end zone. There was Justin Jefferson, of course. It’s basically always a sensible decision to throw to him. But standing all around JJ, there were three defenders. It was double coverage with a third Saint running over to help in any way possible. He couldn’t. New Orleans was beyond help. Murray put the ball in a perfect spot — just beyond the defenders' reach. And Jefferson elevated to snatch the ball. The margin for error is always small when throwing in an area with so many defenders. But it’s even smaller when dealing with the sideline and the back of the end zone. This was the throw that should worry folks around the NFL. So far this season, Murray has been the ultimate game manager. He demonstrated restraint in all the ways the Vikings hoped he would (and all the ways Murray seemed to feel he couldn’t afford in Arizona, where he was constantly trying to do it all). Murray went 24 of 30 (80% completion rate and a +6.8 CPOE) for 229 yards and a touchdown. He also had 10 carries for 51 yards (+15 RYOE). In other words, he’s quietly helping Kevin O’Connell get the most out of this Vikings offense. It seems that, together, Kyler and O’Connell are getting their groove back. There's been plenty of drama around a Cowboys staffer telling Dak Prescott that the team’s loss to the Buccaneers this past Thursday was "embarrassing." That wasn’t how I saw it. Sure, Prescott was no revelation — nor did he redeem his team for its terrible performance. But he was fairly steady in a game where his pass-catchers were struggling with separation — and having difficulty wrangling the contested catches that basically define this offense’s success. The Cowboys had three drops against Tampa Bay, per PFF. Both of Prescott’s interceptions went off the hands of a receiver — and on well-thrown balls. You’ll hear people talk about how sacks are a quarterback stat. (Which is about 75 percent true.) And you’ll hear people asking that some interceptions get scored against receivers. Well, these two picks were perfect examples of why. Dak finished with a 57% completion rate, but PFF scored him an adjusted completion rate at 67.5. That includes the drops and other on-target throws that should’ve been completions. This doesn’t totally excuse Prescott for struggling with ball placement. He should’ve been sharper, leaving meat on the bone when throwing to George Pickens. Yes, believe it or not, Pickens’ big day (nine catches, 130 yards and a TD) should’ve been even bigger. Prescott's M.O. is pinpoint accuracy, and he can’t blame all the incompletions on his receivers. I just can’t fault him too deeply for a night where his teammates and coaches were the ones making the biggest mistakes. Jared Goff is now at 12 passing touchdowns and zero turnovers for the first five games. He’s the first QB in NFL history to do that. He’s leading the NFL in passing yards and is tied for second in passing touchdowns. And his connection with Jameson Williams finally clicked in this game — which I’d been saying for weeks was a reason why this offense could actually get better. It did get better — with Williams and Goff making up for lost time and missed opportunities. They connected on two touchdown passes, including one from 39 yards out in the Lions' shellacking of the Cardinals. The one point of context from the first five weeks: the Lions have faced the worst scoring defense (Cardinals), second-worst (Saints), fifth-worst (Bills) and seventh-worst (Panthers). The Jets are the best unit the Lions have faced, and to the latter's credit, they put up 31 points against New York’s stingy defense, which is allowing an average of 19.2 points per game (fifth-best). Amid this quietly historic run, Goff is making small improvements around his career-long difficulties with pressure. When facing pressure, he has an EPA per dropback of -.19. Without pressure, he has an EPA per dropback of .45. The former mark is still pretty bad. But this represents a better split than it has been from 2023 to 2025, when Goff saw the biggest drop-off in the NFL (falling from .43 without pressure to -.42 against it). It’s also a heck of a lot better than Michael Penix, who falls from .63 unpressured to -.82 pressured. Goff will spend his season contending with his defense — which is among the worst in the league. That’s his most obvious problem. But the Lions also won't go anywhere until their veteran QB figures out how to handle and neutralize pressure, both with pre-snap adjustments and with post-snap poise. That’s the final frontier for Goff. Of course, it has been for quite some time. In an incredible road win over the Rams in overtime on Monday night, Josh Allen did what won him the MVP in 2024. He overcame his mistakes (and I actually thought his interception was downright smart as far as turnovers go). He overcame James Cook’s mistakes. And he did it with his WR1, D.J. Moore, out with an injury. Allen wasn’t even that good as a passer, but with his 121 yards rushing and two total touchdowns, he completely took control of the game.