A report by the US-based national security research website Lawfare, in collaboration with the Brookings Institution, has warned that the Islamic State’s Sahel branch is developing logistical networks linking West Africa to southern Europe, underscoring the need for stronger security cooperation between Morocco and Spain.
The report argues that treating security challenges in the Sahel as a distant problem could ultimately expose Europe to greater risks. It calls on European countries to strengthen defenses against jihadist operations originating in the region.
The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-Sahel), once primarily a regional insurgency, is increasingly seeking to inspire or carry out attacks in Europe, according to the report.
Suspected Berlin attacker highlights transnational links
The report cites the case of Abd Belout, described as a German national of Lebanese origin who allegedly attempted to travel to Mauritania to join the Islamic State in Mali before seeking to reach Lebanon and eventually Syria for the same purpose.
According to the report, Belout later carried out an attack in Berlin in July, driving a rented truck into a crowd attending Christopher Street Day, the city’s Pride celebration, before continuing the assault with a knife. The attack reportedly killed one person and injured 29 others before police shot and killed the assailant.
The report presents Belout’s movements as an illustration of a support corridor allegedly developed by IS-Sahel, extending from its strongholds in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso toward Spain. It says the network exploits smuggling routes and online extremist networks to recruit, finance and facilitate operations on both sides of the Mediterranean.
Although the number of foreign recruits joining IS-Sahel remains far below the global influx of foreign fighters who traveled to join the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate at its peak, the report warns that the group could generate more attacks in Western countries as intelligence and law enforcement resources focus on other threats.
Morocco and Spain monitor Sahel-linked networks
The report says the suspected attacker’s initial attempt to travel to Mauritania reflects a broader pattern of foreign fighters entering the Sahel that Moroccan and Spanish intelligence services have monitored for years.
It states that Moroccan authorities have dismantled several cells linked to IS-Sahel since 2025, including a network in Tangier that allegedly financed fighters in the Sahel and Somalia while planning attacks in Spain.
The report also says the Islamic State has increasingly issued explicit calls for attacks in Morocco, Tunisia and Spain.
Cross-border connections, it adds, have been part of IS-Sahel’s structure since its early days under its first leader, Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, who was killed in 2021. Since then, the group has reorganized, incorporating a more diverse mix of foreign and local members and leaders from different ethnic and national backgrounds, including Fulani, Arab, Tuareg, Daoussahak, Songhai and Zarma communities.
Local support helps sustain the group’s operations
According to the report, IS-Sahel has pursued a strategy aimed at increasing its acceptance among local populations, creating more sustainable sources of recruitment and financing.
The group has presented itself as a protector of marginalized ethnic communities, including Fulani pastoralists, while exploiting grievances in disadvantaged areas against national governments and rival armed groups.
United Nations monitoring reports cited in the analysis suggest that this approach has strengthened the group’s influence, particularly in Mali.
The report argues that growing local support has also enabled IS-Sahel to direct more resources beyond the Sahel and provide assistance to other Islamic State affiliates.
It identifies a Morocco-Spain corridor, particularly the route linking Tangier, the Strait of Gibraltar and Spain’s Balearic Islands, as a functional channel for these activities.
The analysis cites the reported arrest in March of the “Tangier-Mallorca” cell by Moroccan security authorities, as well as the dismantling of a 12-member network known as “Lions of the Caliphate in the Maghreb.” The latter was reportedly spread across nine cities and allegedly sought to establish an IS-Sahel cell inside Morocco.
European counterterrorism priorities
The report warns that the emergence of a foreign-fighter corridor connecting the Sahel with southern Europe has direct implications for European security.
European counterterrorism efforts have largely focused on the Islamic State’s Khorasan branch and remnants of the broader organization in the Middle East, while paying comparatively less attention to threats originating in the Sahel, it argues.
The report identifies minors and individuals who maintain a low profile while traveling to and from conflict zones as continuing concerns for intelligence services.
With IS-Sahel increasingly capable of inspiring, directing or coordinating attacks, the group could seek to exploit legal and operational gaps in European counterterrorism systems, the report concludes.
The analysis highlights the importance of closer cooperation between Morocco and Spain to disrupt recruitment, financing and logistical routes connecting the Sahel with Europe.
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