After weeks of bad news for Ukraine, as Russia intensified its attacks and US support wavered, there was an unexpected note of optimism from talks in Oslo, Norway on Tuesday.
Analysts had been sceptical that much would come from the discussions, between Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner also dialled in from the US.
But Zelenskyy was upbeat afterwards, saying they had discussed “strong” security guarantees for Ukraine after a ceasefire.
He also revealed that the US had resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine, saying he was “grateful”.
“This concerns the early warning system — it is extremely important for our people, for children and adults, because we receive a signal when ballistic missiles are approaching,” Zelensky said
Witkoff was due to meet Russian leaders, potentially including president Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in St Petersburg.
But experts warned Putin was unlikely to look favourably on the proposals that emerged from Oslo.
What happened in Oslo?
A US official told Reuters the talks covered “key elements of a comprehensive peace framework” and made “meaningful progress”.
Store said there had been “good and constructive” discussion of “issues linked to security for Ukraine, prosperity plan after the war, issues related to territory, and issues related to sanctions, and questions related to European security order”.
“Steve Witkov will fly tomorrow to St Petersburg. where he will be meeting with Russian leadership and exchange ideas from this meeting and the proposals that have been worked on by European and American colleagues – and possibly pave the way for a meeting at leaders’ level.”
Zelensky said there was “genuine progress” in the meeting with “clear ideas on how to get to peace … and we want the Americans to take these ideas to the Russians”.
One of them was a “potential” meeting between himself, Trump and Putin “to address the issues that only the leaders can do”, he said. They also included proposals for partial ceasefires in the short term to protect energy and food security, and longer term “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Ukraine after a full ceasefire.
Zelensky also said he had discussed access to the Starlink/Starshield military communications network, and the supply of Patriot interceptor missiles with the US and “I think that we will have good results”.
“There has been a lot of noise in the public space but on a technical level, we feel that the negotiations are actually advancing quite well,” Zelenskyy said.
What did Trump say?
Back in Washington, Trump continued to put pressure on Kyiv rather than Moscow.
Trump’s declaration of an “energy ceasefire” last week rapidly came undone. He followed it up with a deal with the Kremlin to secure Russian diesel imports to try to alleviate soaring fuel costs in the US, and an executive order blocking sanctions and tariffs against Russia days before they were due to take effect.
On Tuesday he warned “Russia’s a big machine, and they just keep grinding forward, and that’s what they’ve done”.
“Zelensky has to want to settle this war, and if he doesn’t, I think it’s gonna be a very bad thing,” the president said.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also cast doubt on the continued supply of Patriot missiles to Ukraine, under a scheme where European countries pay to buy them from the US, saying the US needed to replenish its own stocks. “With things like interceptors, we want to make sure our guys have the most possible as well,” he said.
But Trump is under growing domestic pressure over his stance on the conflict. If the midterm elections next month go badly for the Republicans, that may force him to increase support for Ukraine.
On Tuesday two more Republicans called on him to impose new sanctions on Russia.
“It is my belief that we need to use economic firepower to help drive Putin to the table,” Senator Katie Britt told Semafor. “I believe that Russia is at the darkest point that they’ve been at in this entire war, and now is the time for us to turn up the pressure.”
What does Russia say?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov took a “wait and see” view of the Oslo developments, according to Russian wire service Tass.
“If they propose something that benefits us economically and financially then why not?” he said. “But it should not involve any political concessions on our part.”
Last week US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Breitbart that Russia demands it be given the whole of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, as a condition of ending the war – but it would be a strategic catastrophe for Kyiv.
Ukraine needs to keep its slim defensive line in Donetsk, he said.
“The military strategists say, and I think it’s true – that it is the last defensible line; that if they give that up, there is nothing to defend Kyiv,” Rubio said. “From there it’s a straight shot into Kyiv.”
He said Russia and Ukraine were “deeply entrenched” in a tit-for-tat missile war, and it was hard to find a way out.
What next?
Matthew Sussex, a national security expert from Deakin University, said Ukraine and the US were “trying to walk back from the real damage that was done” to relations in recent weeks.
He said the proposal for a meeting between Trump, Zelensky and Putin was likely an attempt to “steal a march” on a meeting in China next month between Trump, Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping “where they divide Ukraine without asking them”.
But he doubted Putin was ready to entertain a ceasefire deal.
“He doesn’t want peace at all,” Sussex said. “He’s quite obvious on that score, every time he’s provided with an off-ramp he says no, because he thinks he’s winning. He’s got Trump pretty much firmly on his side, and putting pressure on the Europeans.”
Ukraine’s best option was to keep hitting Russian refineries and datacentres, Sussex said, despite the fact that it irritated Trump.
“The key to the key to political stability in Russia is making sure that the wealthy people in Moscow and St Petersburg don’t really feel the effects of the war that much,” he said.
“With Ukrainians hitting oil refineries and hitting Yandex [datacentres] … that does start bringing it home. Absent that pressure, Putin will just keep going.”