BRAZIL · ELECTION
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president on Sunday 25 October 2026.
- —Why it matters The US has the largest Brazilian voter list abroad, nearly 29% of overseas voters.
- —Why now US polls open Sunday at 8 a.m. local, and some voters must travel to another city.
- —What happened Electoral data list 265,047 US voters in 11 cities, and 71.55% skipped the first round.
- —What it means for you Polls close at 5 p.m. local, or 6 p.m. in Brasília on the East Coast.
- —Still open How many US voters turn out, and when their ballots reach the national count.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro about 79.5% and Lula 20.5% (24 October, 5:10 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 80% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 24 October, 5:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- —Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
About 265,000 Brazilians in the US are registered to vote in Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October 2026, yet more than seven in ten stayed home in the first round. The Brazil election 2026 runoff pits President Lula against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and citizens abroad vote for president only.
Voters can check Brazil election polls and Brazil election odds before they go, and our Brazil runoff date page lists the start time and where to follow the count. Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time in every US city, so they close at 6 p.m. in Brasília on the East Coast and 9 p.m. in California.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
41 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
This report adds city-by-city numbers from the electoral court’s own data, after our guide Brazil Runoff Day on 25 October for Foreign Visitors covered the runoff-day rules. It also follows Brazilian in ICE Costume at Miami Polls Faces 5 Charges, which covered the first-round vote at a Miami site.
In Plain English
A runoff is a second round held when nobody wins more than half the valid votes, and on 4 October neither Lula nor Flávio Bolsonaro did. Brazilians who live abroad can vote only for president, in person, at sections run by the electoral court, mostly in consulates, embassies, hotels and schools.
Lula belongs to the left-wing Workers’ Party, while Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the conservative Liberal Party candidate. Voting is compulsory for most adults, so a missed vote must be justified or it brings a small fine.
Where Brazilians in the US Vote on Sunday
The electoral court’s runoff data list 265,047 registered voters in 11 US cities, about 29% of the 916,683 Brazilians registered abroad. Those cities are Boston, Miami, New York, Orlando, Los Angeles, Washington, Houston, Atlanta, San Francisco, Chicago and Hartford.
Registered Voters for the Runoff, by US City
- Boston, Massachusetts53,358
- Miami, Florida40,060
- New York, New York38,952
- Orlando, Florida26,387
- Los Angeles, California18,263
- Washington, DC18,155
- Houston, Texas16,443
- Atlanta, Georgia16,302
- San Francisco, California15,494
- Chicago, Illinois12,451
- Hartford, Connecticut9,182
Total 265,047 across 358 voting sections. Source: Brazilian electoral court runoff data, published 9 October 2026.
Boston has the biggest list, with 53,358 voters, ahead of Miami with 40,060 and New York with 38,952. The 11 cities share 358 voting sections, and 69 of them are in the Boston area.
The venues are often not consulates, because AcheiUSA lists Miami Dade College’s Kendall Campus, Queens College in New York and the Capital Hilton in Washington. It also lists the Atlanta Eagles Arena in Doraville, Georgia, and a Veterans Memorial site in Culver City for Los Angeles.
AcheiUSA names 14 venues, including Plano, Texas, and Millcreek, Utah, but no Hartford site, which TV Connect USA and Remessa Online do list, so each voter should confirm the assigned address. The e-Título app and the court’s self-service page show where each person votes.
Hours, Time Zones and Results
Voting runs from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. in each city’s local time, not Brasília time, according to AcheiUSA, TV Connect USA and Remessa Online. Brasília is one hour ahead of Eastern Time until 1 November, so closing is 6 p.m. in Brasília for the East Coast, 7 p.m. for Chicago and Houston, and 9 p.m. for Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Inside Brazil, the court says results begin at 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday, which is 4 p.m. Eastern. The last US stations, in California, close at 5 p.m. Pacific, or 8 p.m. Eastern.
That gap means California ballots cannot be counted before the polls there close at 8 p.m. Eastern. None of the sources reviewed says whether foreign ballots are added as they arrive or held for later totals.
Long Distances and Low Turnout
In the first round on 4 October, 71.55% of Brazilians registered in the US did not vote, against 62.69% for all Brazilians abroad and 21.08% in Brazil. Chicago and Hartford had the highest US abstention, at 77.68% and 78.75%, while Orlando had the lowest, at 65.91%.
KPBS reported on Friday 23 October that Brazilians in San Diego must go to Los Angeles to vote, because it holds the nearest site. Census data show almost 5,000 Brazilians in San Diego, though community groups say the real number is much higher, KPBS said.
Mario Martims, a dishwasher in Point Loma, told KPBS he will drive to Los Angeles alone, while Camila Guerra rented a car and plans to offer rides. Amanda Nunez, an accountant in Colorado Springs, said work keeps her from voting, with the nearest sites in Dallas and Salt Lake City.
How US Voters Chose in Round One
Of the 73,661 valid votes cast in the 11 US cities, Flávio Bolsonaro won 45,004, or 61.10%, and Lula won 23,335, or 31.68%. Those shares are our sums of the court’s city files, and other candidates took the remaining 7.2%.
Boston gave Flávio 11,228 votes to 3,919 for Lula, and Miami gave him 8,914 to 2,260. New York was almost even, with 4,684 votes for Flávio and 4,570 for Lula.
Lula led in four US cities: Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Washington. Among all Brazilians abroad he took 47.57% of valid votes and Flávio 43.49%.
Brazilians abroad are only about 0.5% of Brazil’s electorate, Agência Brasil said, so they cannot decide the race alone. Nationwide in the first round, Flávio led Lula by 47.03% to 45.16%, the court’s data show.
What It Means for You
For US readers, this is a Brazilian national vote held on US soil, at colleges, schools and hotels in 11 cities, on Brazilian electronic voting machines. A registered voter who cannot go can justify the absence in the e-Título app on Sunday between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. local time, or until 8 January 2027.
The fine for an unjustified absence is up to R$3.51 (about US$0.70) per round, at the central bank’s rate of R$5.0377 per US$1 on 23 October. Three missed rounds in a row without justification or a paid fine can cancel the registration and block passport renewal, TV Connect USA said, citing the court.
Our guides Who Dominates Brazil, Elites and Regions Explained and Brazil Geopolitics Explained 2026 give the wider background. Our São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro city guides cover life for newcomers.
What Is Not Known
It is not known how many of the 265,047 US voters will turn out on Sunday, because the first-round turnout of 28.45% is the only guide. Runoffs can differ from first rounds, and no US-specific turnout forecast was found.
The sources reviewed do not say how foreign ballots are added to the national count, or how the 5 p.m. Brasília release time treats stations that close later. The court’s own voting-abroad pages could not be opened for venue lists and hours.
Venue lists and hours therefore rest on AcheiUSA, TV Connect USA, Remessa Online and KPBS, which differ on Hartford, Plano and Salt Lake City. The US first-round shares are our sums of the court’s city files, not a US total published by the court.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro about a 79.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 20.5% (24 October, 5:10 a.m. ET). The Brazil Presidential Election event has drawn about US$194.2 million in trading volume, with about US$26.2 million on the Flávio contract and US$29.5 million on the Lula contract.
These prices are bets, not polls, and they say nothing about how many Brazilian voters in America will show up. Live prices are on our odds page.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.5% · Lula 20.5% (US$194 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 22%
As of 24 October, 5:20 am ET (10:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many Brazilians in the US can vote on Sunday?
The electoral court lists 265,047 registered voters in 11 US cities for the runoff. That is about 29% of the 916,683 Brazilians registered abroad.
What time do US polls open for the Brazilian vote?
Polls are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. local time in each US city. Closing is 6 p.m. in Brasília for the East Coast and 9 p.m. for California.
Can Brazilians vote by mail or online from the US?
No, voting abroad is in person only, at the section where each voter is registered. KPBS also said mail voting is not permitted.
What if a Brazilian in the US cannot vote?
The voter can justify the absence in the e-Título app on Sunday or until 8 January 2027. An unjustified absence costs up to R$3.51 (about US$0.70) per round.
Who led among US voters in round one?
Flávio Bolsonaro took 61.10% of valid votes in 11 US cities and Lula 31.68%, by our sums of the court’s data. Among all Brazilians abroad, Lula led with 47.57% against 43.49%.
When does Brazil start releasing runoff results?
The electoral court says results begin at 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday, which is 4 p.m. Eastern. The last US polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern.
Sources: Electoral court (TSE) first-round results abroad, 4 October 2026; Electoral court (TSE) runoff electorate by city abroad, 9 October 2026; Electoral court (TSE) first-round national results; Electoral court (TSE), runoff portal notice, 23 October 2026; AcheiUSA, 23 October 2026; TV Connect USA, 18 October 2026; Remessa Online, where to vote abroad, 19 October 2026, updated 22 October; KPBS, 23 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 21 October 2026; Banco Central do Brasil PTAX rate of R$5.0377 per US$1, 23 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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