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Kuehne + Nagel attributed most of its third-quarter airfreight growth to market share gains, and expects to keep winning business into 2027 as a strong peak season gets under way.
Airfreight volumes rose 10% year on year, with chief executive Stefan Paul estimating underlying market growth at 3-4% and attributing 60-70% of K+N’s growth to market share gains.
“[It’s] pretty much coming from hard cargo. Hard cargo had a double-digit increase in terms of volume this quarter, and ecommerce went down significantly,” he told analysts yesterday.
Asked whether further market share gains would follow next year, he replied: “Similar to this year, it should continue.”
Separate analysis from Aevean illustrates the weakening backdrop for Chinese low-value ecommerce air exports. Tonnage fell 19% year on year in September, taking the decline over the first nine months to 4%.
Low-value ecommerce volumes to Europe halved in September, while those to North America were down 4%.
Technology has also replaced business lost from the automotive sector, revealing a longer-term shift in the forwarder’s airfreight customer base.
Mr Paul recalled that, five to seven years ago, K+N had a strong automotive business out of Europe, serving major manufacturers and their first- and second-tier suppliers. That business had been replaced by technology cargo, he said.
“I wouldn’t say we have an overdependency now on this, but it has replaced the shrinking auto sector on a one-to-one basis.”
Management declined to quantify its technology exposure or specify the contribution of hyperscaler customers to growth. However, chief financial officer Markus Blanka-Graff confirmed that “the hyperscaler is a good part of our growth in 2026”.
“I think our view currently is that growth in that space, with the customers we continuously gain, is also going to continue into 2027,” he added.
Mr Paul said half of K+N’s airfreight capacity came from its own charter operations, with the remainder covered by block space agreements. Improving the cargo mix, with a focus on hard cargo, would remain a priority into next year, he added.
Mr Blanka-Graff explained: “The stronger profitability, the stronger margins are on the hard cargo side and special products, healthcare side, hi-tech side.”
However, one analyst questioned why the changing mix was not producing a stronger airfreight yield performance. Management reiterated its expectation of stable yields, without quantifying the contribution from the shift in cargo.
K+N’s airfreight volumes increased 7% sequentially in the third quarter, while ebit rose 84% year on year, to CHF169m ($205m). Its air logistics conversion rate reached 32%, against 23% a year earlier.
Mr Paul said the forwarder expected its third-quarter volume development to continue into Q4, with stable yields.
“We have just started in the peak season, but I would say it’s strong. Is it even stronger than the Q3? [That’s] to be seen, but it’s definitely strong.”
Meanwhile, airlines are adding winter capacity. Qatar Airways Cargo has announced weekly 777 freighter services through Copenhagen from 25 October, and Warsaw-Chicago from 26 October, followed by a weekly rotation serving New York and Atlanta from 1 November. It has also introduced twice-weekly Dallas freighters.
IAG Cargo’s winter schedule includes three weekly Gatwick–Colombo flights, scheduled to begin today, alongside a doubling of Gatwick–Bangkok frequencies to six a week, broadening forwarders’ bellyhold options on Asian lanes.