Computers don't play football, but their impact on teams that do can't be overstated. ESPN's FPI rating is one of many metrics looking at the season that is, and trying to forecast the season to come. And every week, the FPI shoots teams up and down (including a new No. 1 this week) the rankings due to unusual results-- and sometimes, due to surprising ones to foreshadow a surprising jump this week. But here are Week 7's big FPI rises and drops from the power four conferences.
Rising
Auburn (up 10 spots to 21st)
Hard not to see this jump coming. Auburn took down No. 1 Georgia on the road 27-24. After falling down 14-0, Auburn reeled off 24 straight points and made them stand up in a game in which they were nearly a three-touchdown underdog. FPI was so impressed it gives Auburn a 7.0% chance to still reach the College Football Playoff. More immediately, a 96.2% shot at six wins says Auburn might start preparing for an inevitable bowl appearance now.
Boston College (up 9 spots to 82nd)
The other way up is to be so far down that success seems to confuse the computer. BC has had a rough season, but upended Pittsburgh 27-21. It was not unlike the game above-- Pitt scored the first 12 points, and then BC reeled off the next 21. Unfortunately for the Eagles, even with the win, FPI says the 3-3 squad has just a 10.6% chance at reaching six wins.
Colorado (up 8 spots to 63rd)
Not saying the season has been a disaster for Colorado, but it's been bad enough that they made one of the biggest FPI jumps after losing. The Buffs hung with Utah before falling 27-24, and still gained significant ground in the ratings. At 2-4, Colorado's 13.7% chance at reach six wins in the lowest in the Big 12.
Dropping
California (down 13 spots to 88th)
A 41-7 home loss to Wake Forest sent Cal tumbling. It's only Stanford below the Bears in the ACC basement. At 3-4, the FPI projections give Cal just a 14.3% chance at reaching six wins and a bowl.
Mississippi State (down 11 spots to 38th)
With its two two offensive weapons out due to injury, State was walloped by a hungry LSU team, 31-0. ESPN's computers aren't completely throwing in the towel on the Bulldogs-- they still have a 3.5% at earning a Playoff spot and a 92.4% chance at six wins and a bowl game. But this week was a substantial drop.
Missouri (down 10 spots to 27th)
The Tigers were in the SEC's secondary group of CFP hopefuls, but a 31-3 loss to Ole Miss on the road took a lot of steam out of those hopes. They dropped to a 3.7% chance of reaching the CFP, but do still have a 95.7% shot at bowl eligibility.
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