A report prepared by four members of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has warned that Armenia could face severe economic consequences if it leaves the bloc to pursue European Union membership, while the impact on the remaining member states would be minimal.
Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have presented a report exceeding 70 pages examining the potential consequences of Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU and its possible accession to the European Union.
According to the report, Armenia would experience substantial economic losses from abandoning the Eurasian integration framework, whereas the economic consequences for the other four members would be comparatively insignificant.
The assessment comes amid growing disagreements between Yerevan and its EAEU partners over Armenia's efforts to deepen political and economic relations with the European Union.
The four member states have also requested an additional report, to be prepared by December, examining the potential implications of suspending Armenia's participation in the organisation.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, however, has rejected suggestions that his government has breached its commitments to the EAEU.
He maintained that Armenia continues to fulfil its obligations under the bloc's agreements and has not taken a decision to withdraw from the organisation.
Armenia joined the EAEU in 2015, becoming part of the economic integration framework alongside Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
However, relations between Yerevan and its traditional partners have become increasingly complicated as Armenia seeks closer integration with European institutions.
In 2025, the Armenian Parliament adopted legislation initiating the country's EU accession process, marking a significant step in Yerevan's efforts to strengthen ties with Brussels.
The move drew criticism from Moscow and Minsk, which argue that full membership in the European Union is incompatible with continued participation in the EAEU because of conflicting customs and trade obligations.
Despite the legislation, Armenia has not formally withdrawn from the Eurasian Economic Union, and the adoption of the law does not itself constitute EU membership or the formal opening of accession negotiations.
The latest report highlights the widening disagreement between Armenia and its EAEU partners over the country's future economic alignment.
While the four member states portray a potential Armenian withdrawal as economically damaging primarily to Yerevan, the Armenian government maintains that it has not made a final decision to leave the bloc.