The NBA season tipped off this week, and Kalshi’s NBA MVP market still has plenty of value available with several high-profile contenders sitting at the top of the board. Victor Wembanyama leads the board with a 33% chance to win the MVP.
Wembanyama sits far ahead of the rest of the contenders, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic, the only other players above 10% chance to win. A $10 trade on Wembanyama winning the MVP profits $18.93.
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Wemby takeover?
Victor Wembanyama is coming off an MVP-worthy 2025-26 season where he finished with 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks, and 1.0 steals. His performance was good enough to earn the third-most MVP votes last season. Expectations for him are even higher this season, with Kalshi listing him with the second-highest price to lead the league in rebounds, blocks, and double-doubles this season.
Shai looking for a three-peat
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off two consecutive MVPs and looking to become the fourth player in history to win three straight. He’s coming off 31.1 points, 6.6 assists (career high), 4.3 rebounds, and 1.4 steals last season. He’s already off to a hot start this season with a 32/6/4 stat line in the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 116-104 win over the San Antonio Spurs.
Joker back in contention
Since the 2020-21 season, Nikola Jokic has either won the MVP or finished second in voting. He made a strong case last season with his second straight season averaging a triple-double with 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists. Both his rebound and assist totals led the league.
Can Luka finally capture his first?
It’s amazing how Luka Doncic has never won an MVP in his eight years. He’s finished top-5 in voting four times, including last season, when he received the fourth most votes. He has an even clearer path to win this season now with LeBron James out of the Los Angeles Lakers. Last season, Doncic averaged 35.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 8.4 assists in games that LeBron did not play. He’s back to being the focal point of his team and in a great position to make a run this season.
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