NOVOSIBIRSK, October 15. /TASS/. The share of oil in the global energy mix has fallen from 46% in 1973 to 34% in 2025 and will continue to shrink due to the transition to clean energy with minimal carbon emissions and the expansion of renewables, according to Irina Provornaya, senior researcher at the Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics.
"The focus of energy security has shifted from resource availability to logistical resilience and economic adaptability," the institute's press service quoted Provornaya, who holds a PhD in Economics, as saying. "While oil will retain its significance, its role in the global energy mix will continue to shrink under the influence of decarbonization and the development of renewable energy [such as solar, wind, and hydropower]."
According to the expert, the global oil market has changed drastically over the past 50 years. In 1973, oil dominated the energy mix with a 46% share, but by 2025 its share had dropped to 34%, while the shares of coal, gas, and renewable energy sources grew. The turning point was the 1973 oil shock, when Arab exporting nations cut off supplies, causing prices to surge. As a result, demand growth slowed down from its pre-crisis rate of 7.8% per year, with subsequent market dynamics shaped by geopolitical and economic factors.
The expert noted that following every major crisis, global oil consumption has recovered to a new, lower baseline rather than its previous level. "Once set in motion, processes such as energy conservation, fuel mix diversification, and the reorientation of transport flows exert a long-lasting influence, shaping sustainable patterns of economic behavior," she explained.
Provornaya added that the oil market today is defined by five groups of players. The United States became the leading producer following the shale revolution, while the Middle East retains a pivotal role in market regulation. Russia, Canada, and China maintain stable output volumes through technological solutions and export reorientation, whereas Brazil, Guyana, and Nigeria have significantly strengthened their positions.
The reliability of oil supplies depends on the uninterrupted operation of key maritime routes, Provornaya noted. Disruptions in the straits of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandeb, and Malacca, as well as the Suez Canal, immediately impact global oil prices and shipping costs. The Strait of Hormuz alone accounts for approximately one-fifth of global oil trade.