President Donald Trump has embarked on a campaign swing across the country, hoping to shore up conservative support and stave off a blue wave in next month's midterms.
He is slated to travel back to Texas on October 27 to help Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton win a race that even the most hopeful Democrat still sees as too close to call.
His trip comes as some have argued that Trump's appearances have not improved numbers in key races.
Democratic Texas hopeful James Talarico, the Texas state representative vying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in the Lone Star State since 1994, has consistently outperformed Paxton in almost every poll, but by small margins. As flawed as Paxton has been as a candidate, carrying the baggage of a 2023 impeachment and acquittal and securities fraud charges resolved in 2024, polling averages reveal a tight race for the crucial seat.
In an election as tight as this one, some GOP operatives have warned that Trump's presence might be harmful to their candidates. The president's approval ratings continue to slide and polls show that voters are dissatisfied with gas prices, the cost of living and the Iran war.
But in Texas, a solid GOP state, Trump's appearances—including the unprecedented midterm Republican National Convention in Dallas last month—haven't appeared to hurt Paxton and the race has tightened in polls since the president rallied in San Antonio earlier this month.
Paxton senior adviser, Nick Maddux, told Newsweek the campaign welcomes Trump's backing.
"AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority, which is why he's on the ground every day talking to Texans, raising money, and taking his message directly to the people,” Maddux said.
Texas Senate Polls Before and After Trump's Rallies for Paxton
Newsweek compared surveys from the same pollsters conducted before and after the Dallas convention and San Antonio rally. The results signal a tightening race, though a late advertising blitz may have played as much of a role as the president's visits.
Speaking to reporters last week, Trump made the case for himself.
"Since I've been there, you know, these rallies have changed the whole ballgame," he said.
"I think Ken Paxton now is leading by a little bit."
In polling surrounding the convention, the race barely moved. Texas Public Opinion Research, polling for Slingshot, had Talarico up 6 points in late August and up 5 in mid-September. A University of Texas/YouGov survey showed Talarico ahead by 3 in both time frames. Emerson College moved 2 points toward Talarico, from a 1-point Paxton lead in August to a 1-point Talarico edge in mid-September.
Things have shifted after Trump's San Antonio rally.
Marist's lead for Talarico shrank from 6 points in September to 2 points in its October 8 to October 11 survey, which found Talarico ahead 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. InsiderAdvantage went from a 2-point Talarico lead to a one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, Paxton edge in mid-October. Siena College and ReconMR, whose survey partly overlapped the rally, showed Talarico's margin slipping from 6 points to 4.
The Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group moved the other way, widening Talarico's lead from 1 point to 4 points.
Taken together, polls fielded entirely between late September and the San Antonio rally gave Talarico an average lead of about 3.2 points. Those taken entirely after the rally, including the Marist, InsiderAdvantage, Quantus Insights and the University of Houston's Hobby School polls, averaged about 0.8 points. That is a shift of roughly 2.4 points toward Paxton.
The latest Hobby School survey, released Sunday, found Talarico ahead 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with 60 percent of independents backing the Democrat.
Why the Texas Senate Race Matters in 2026 Midterm Elections
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, despite several upstart Democratic campaigns in the last two decades.
Democrats must defend all their seats and flip four GOP seats to take a majority in the upper chamber. Texas has emerged as one of the top opportunities for a flip.
Paxton reached November after a bruising primary to unseat incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton over Cornyn ahead of the primary. Cornyn and Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned that a Democrat could beat Paxton if he became the nominee.
Forecasters have called the race a coin flip. The Cook Political Report moved Texas from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" in August, and the race has remained there.
Early voting runs through October 30. Election Day is November 3.
Trump Heads Back to Texas To Stump for Paxton in Lubbock and Waco
The Republican National Committee announced Texas stops in Lubbock and Waco on Monday, the same day Trump rallied in Kansas for Senator Roger Marshall and the first day of early voting in the Lone Star State. Both cities sit in parts of the state Trump carried overwhelmingly in 2024, a sign the campaign is focused on getting the base to turn out.
The rallies come as Paxton has told donors that the president has hurt his campaign, singling out the midterm convention in Dallas.
In audio from a private Washington fundraiser, obtained by The New York Times, Paxton said the convention hurt GOP candidates.
"Everybody's numbers dropped," he said.
Maddux pushed back on the recording, telling The Times it was "manipulated nonsense" while pointing to an internal poll showing Paxton ahead by 3 points.
...
A separate recording obtained by Politico has Paxton heard saying he had "never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign."
Nationally, Trump's approval rating sits roughly 20 points underwater in Decision Desk HQ's tracker and some vulnerable Republicans have removed the president from campaign ads.
Talarico lost nine days of campaigning to the flu in early October. Paxton's campaign demanded "proof of life" and circulated missing-person posters, and Trump mocked the absence in San Antonio. Talarico returned on October 9.
"Ken Paxton has asked for proof of life for me. I'm asking for proof of spine from him," he said, noting that Paxton has not accepted any debate invitations.
Talarico vs. Paxton Fundraising: Record Haul Meets Musk Money
On campaign cash alone, Paxton is getting buried.
Talarico announced a $64 million third-quarter haul, and his Federal Election Commission report showed more than $60 million raised from July through September, topping the third-quarter Senate record set by South Carolina Democrat Jaime Harrison in 2020. His campaign said 97 percent of the donations were under $100. Talarico has raised more than $134 million since launching his bid in September 2025.
The campaign also spent $67 million in the quarter, more than it raised, and ended September with $14.6 million in the bank.
Paxton's campaign and two affiliated committees raised a combined $18 million in the same period. His campaign finished with $4.9 million on hand.
The gap extends into the suburbs Republicans have long relied on to offset losses in Texas' larger cities. A Newsweek analysis of itemized contributions in the campaigns' third-quarter FEC reports, which generally capture donors who give more than $200, found that Talarico raised $2.6 million from about 10,200 donors in 19 suburban counties around Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin and San Antonio. Paxton raised $1.1 million from about 2,600 donors.
Talarico outraised Paxton in 16 of those 19 counties. In Collin County, north of Dallas, he took in $480,000 to Paxton's $223,000. He also led in Montgomery County, the Republican stronghold north of Houston that includes The Woodlands, $220,000 to $162,000.
"If Paxton doesn't do better than he's doing right now in the suburban areas, he may very well lose," Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute, told Newsweek.
Republican outside groups have spent more than $175 million since September to boost Paxton and run attack ads targeting Talarico, according to NBC News. FEC filings show Elon Musk gave $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, the main Senate GOP super PAC, in September, and the group moved equal sums into a Texas super PAC dedicated to electing Paxton the day after each donation.
Musk also gave $10 million to a separate pro-Paxton super PAC, while his America PAC has spent about $9.4 million in anti-Talarico advertisements.
"Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas," Talarico said this week.
Candidates pay lower TV ad rates than super PACs do, so Talarico's money buys more airtime per dollar, Axios has reported.
Trump has already begun playing the blame game, aiming Republican Senator John Cornyn, whose seat Paxton and Talarico are battling for after he lost the primary to the attorney general.
"If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove," the president wrote on Truth Social last week.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Geoffrey Rowland.