The New York Giants host a struggling New Orleans Saints team looking to snap a three-game losing streak that has drawn attention and stern words from team owner Gayle Benson this past week.
The Saints have the league’s 20th-ranked offense (322.0 yards per game) and the 25th-ranked defense (361.0 yards per game) as they head into MetLife Stadium against a Giants team that has a chance to go 4-0 at home for the first time since 2008, when they got off to a 6-0 start at home.
Despite the Saints’ struggles, they enter this game as a 1.5-point favorite per FanDuel, which is a head-scratcher considering they have averaged 21.3 points in their last three games, while the home team has averaged 25 points per game.
But odds aside, the NFC East-leading Giants’ goal, according to head coach John Harbaugh, is simple: stack wins.
“You always know what they are, but you know you’ve got to stack wins to make the December standings matter,” Harbaugh said when asked how much he pays attention to the standings at this point in the season. “So, we focus on the next game.”
The Giants, according to Tankathon, have to make hay, so to speak. They face a remaining schedule with a combined winning percentage of .484, with their four toughest opponents being the 49ers, Jaguars, Lions, and Browns.
All four of those challenging opponents land on the schedule after the Giants’ Week 8 bye.
But to focus on what the Giants might do this week, let’s look at the best- and worst-case scenarios.
Why the Giants Will Beat the Saints
If there was ever a good week for the Giants’ rushing game to snap out of its funk, this would be it. The league’s 30th-ranked run defense has struggled big time this season, allowing 4.9 yards per rushing attempt.
It also ranks last in the league in defensive rush success (52.5%), meaning it struggles to stop opponents from gaining the minimum required yardage on a run (excluding kneeldowns and scrambles).
The Giants’ rushing offense has not been the same since quarterback Jaxson Dart landed on IR with a season-ending knee injury. Although it ranks 17th in total rushing yards, it also averages a dismal 3.7 yards per attempt, 24th in the league.
As if the rushing game’s struggles aren’t enough, it will be interesting to see if Harbaugh decides to reduce running back Cam Skattebo’s touches this week given his fumbling issue.
As usual, the head coach was mum on the plans, but this could be a week when Najee Harris and Tyrone Tracy Jr. get bigger roles in the rushing attack to see if they can jumpstart it.
On the defensive side, the Giants’ pass rush has finally awakened after a slow start, recording seven sacks over the last two weeks. This week, they face a Saints offensive line that has surrendered three sacks to quarterback Tyler Shough over that same period.
Combine that with the opportunistic Giants secondary, which has forced eight turnovers this season, against a Saints offense that has committed 13 giveaways, and the Giants’ quest to remain undefeated at home could get a lot easier.
Why the Giants Won’t Beat the Saints
The Giants’ run defense, in Harbaugh’s words, has been “feast or famine” this season. Last week in the tie against Washington, it was clearly the latter, having surrendered a season-high 202 yards on the ground.
There are many reasons for the Giants’ struggles in run defense, but one glaring issue has been facing pre-snap motion.
Motion changes the look for the defense and has sometimes left players out of position or forced them into bad angles as they try to stop the play from gaining a lot of yards.
Under head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints have deployed pre-snap motion on 64% of their offensive snaps this season, the ninth-highest rate in the league, and have a 46% success rate overall when using motion. While they use pre-snap motion more in the passing game, they have used it at a 35% rate in the rushing game.
If the Giants, who have allowed opponents 5.2 yards per rush attempt on first down, can’t tighten that up, the Saints will have options on subsequent downs, giving New Orleans an advantage.
The other thing that could spoil the Giants’ quest to win their fourth straight game at home is their own aggressiveness on defense.
If the Giants, who over the last two weeks have blitzed on 57.8% of opposing quarterbacks’ drop backs, come at the Saints with a similar rate of pressure, they’d better hope that Saints signal-caller Tyler Shough, who per PFF data, has a 102.7 passer rating when throwing the ball in 2.5 seconds or less, doesn’t connect with receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed for the big pass plays downfield.
Prediction
If I live to be 100 (fingers crossed), I will never understand how the oddsmakers come up with their weekly point spreads.
What I do understand is that Harbaugh has this team dialed in, and this matchup against the Saints is overall favorable for the Giants if they play a relatively clean game and keep the ball-security issues out of the mix.
The Giants have a lot more going for them at this point in the season than the Saints, including far too many advantages that, if they hit on all cylinders, will get the job done.
Giants 28, Saints 17
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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