BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Friday, 16 October, 2:27 p.m. ET · Source: Futura/100% Cidades
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America's largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened The Futura Inteligência and 100% Cidades released a new runoff survey on Friday 16 October showing a technical tie.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 50.8% of valid votes and Lula 49.2%, while raw totals read 49% to 47.5%.
- What changed The previous Futura/100% Cidades poll, released Tuesday 13 October, had Flávio at 51.8% and Lula at 48.2% in valid votes.
- Margin of error 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 95% confidence level.
- Fieldwork 2,000 voters were interviewed by phone on 14 and 15 October (TSE registration BR-03764/2026).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 22.5% (16 October, 2:25 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 23% and 24%), as of 16 October, 2:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
A new Brazil runoff poll from Futura Inteligência and 100% Cidades, released on Friday 16 October, puts Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 50.8% of valid votes against 49.2% for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president. The gap of 1.6 points is inside the 2.2-point margin of error, so the survey counts as a technical tie in the Brazil election 2026 race.
The runoff on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America's largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. The new numbers are part of our Brazil election polls tracker, which lists every survey so readers can compare pollsters.
What the New Futura Poll Found
The survey interviewed 2,000 voters by computer-assisted telephone calls on Wednesday 14 and Thursday 15 October, Poder360 reported. It was conducted by Futura Inteligência with 100% Cidades and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-03764/2026.
In raw totals, Flávio has 49% and Lula 47.5%, with 1.5% voting blank, null or for neither and 2.1% undecided, according to Correio Braziliense. Setting those answers aside gives the valid-vote split of 50.8% to 49.2%.
How the Race Moved in Three Days
The previous Futura/100% Cidades poll, released on Tuesday 13 October, had Flávio ahead 51.8% to 48.2% in valid votes, Correio Braziliense reported. Flávio lost one point and Lula gained one, so the lead shrank from 3.6 points to 1.6.
Other institutes show a similarly tight race. PoderData/Aya, released on Tuesday 13 October, had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49% in valid votes.
Who Voters Would Never Choose
Futura also asked whom voters would reject outright. Lula is rejected by 47.2% of respondents and Flávio by 46.1%, Midiamax reported.
A rejection rate this high on both sides means each candidate has a hard ceiling. The few undecided voters left may decide the result.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean price swings until the result is known. Polls with a 2-point margin cannot name a favourite, so markets may react to every new survey.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will set Brazil's course toward Washington for the next four years. Our latest reading of the Brazil election odds is below.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders price a Flávio Bolsonaro win in the 25 October runoff at 76.5% and a Lula win at 22.5% (16 October, 2:25 p.m. ET). Trading across all markets in the "Brazil Presidential Election" event totals about US$184.8 million.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 22.5% (US$185 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 24%
As of 16 October, 2:20 pm ET (19:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
Phone polls can miss voters who do not answer unknown numbers. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
It is also unknown how undecided voters, who make up 2.1% of the sample, will choose, or how many will turn out on 25 October.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil's latest runoff poll from Futura/100% Cidades?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 50.8% of valid votes against 49.2% for Lula. The poll was released on Friday 16 October and is a technical tie.
What is the margin of error?
The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, at a 95% confidence level. The 1.6-point gap between the candidates falls inside it.
How did the poll change from the previous one?
On Tuesday 13 October, Futura/100% Cidades had Flávio ahead 51.8% to 48.2% in valid votes. His lead is now 1.6 points instead of 3.6.
When is Brazil's runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, nine days after this poll was released. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
How many voters did the poll interview?
Futura/100% Cidades interviewed 2,000 voters by phone on 14 and 15 October. The poll is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-03764/2026.
Sources: Poder360, 16 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, 16 October 2026; Midiamax, 16 October 2026; Futura/100% Cidades survey BR-03764/2026, TSE.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
The Rio Times · Power Map
See who really holds power in Latin America
Click to open the Power Map →