Russia floats a rival Arctic framework while Japan and Iceland, marking 70 years of diplomatic ties, lean on polar research to deepen cooperation.
(Stock image/Russian flag, from Pixabay)
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Two senior fellows from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Natsuhiko Otsuka and Hiroyuki Enomoto, spoke at the Arctic Circle Assembly, held in Reykjavik, Iceland, from October 8 to 10.
Speaking on October 8, Otsuka highlighted growing cooperation between China and Russia to develop Arctic shipping routes and examined the broader international implications of a new Arctic cooperation framework proposed by Moscow.
On October 10, Enomoto discussed the growing collaboration between Japanese and Icelandic scientists in Arctic research. He also emphasized the importance of "science diplomacy" as the two countries mark the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
China a Major Player on the Northern Sea Route
Otsuka said China is "becoming a major power on the Arctic sea route," citing the rapid expansion of NewNew Shipping Line, a Chinese container shipping company established in 2022. Initially focused on shipping to Russia, the company has recently expanded its operations to include exports to Europe via the Arctic.
According to Otsuka, the company can afford the route's commercial risks because it expects "substantial cargo demand for Arctic shipping." One possible explanation is that its parent company handles shipments for both Chinese exporters and Chinese importers operating in Europe.
This gives NewNew Shipping Line an advantage, as it faces little price competition from major international shipping companies.
Japanese and South Korean shipping firms, however, face a different set of challenges. Given the geopolitical risks associated with Russia, Otsuka said it is not easy for carriers in either country to find domestic customers willing to ship goods along the Arctic route off Russia's northern coast.
On freight rates, Otsuka said the Arctic route would struggle to compete with the lower costs offered by ultra-large container ships passing through the Suez Canal.
Russia, meanwhile, faces significant challenges in developing the Arctic route. Its cargo volume targets are overly ambitious, while international isolation following its invasion of Ukraine has further complicated its plans.
Given these challenges, Otsuka said China's growing use of the route provides a much-needed boost to Russia's ambitions.
Russia's Proposal Risks Dividing the Arctic
At an international conference hosted in September, Russia proposed a new framework for Arctic cooperation, seeking an alternative to the existing Arctic Council, whose seven other members continue to impose sanctions on Moscow.
Otsuka warned that the proposal could divide the region into two competing blocs: the "Arctic Seven" and a Russia-led group of sympathetic non-Arctic countries.
The Arctic Seven comprise the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Finland—all NATO members. Otsuka said the proposal could deepen tensions between NATO members in the Arctic and countries aligned with Russia.
For now, Otsuka described the prospect of establishing a new international body to rival the Arctic Council as being at an "uncertain conceptual stage."
However, he noted that growing cooperation between China and Russia on Arctic shipping is already producing tangible results. He suggested this cooperation could be a "practical step" toward establishing a new Russia-led international organization.
The Importance of Science Diplomacy
Speaking at a separate session, Enomoto thanked Icelandic government officials and university researchers for their contributions to growing scientific cooperation between Japan and Iceland.
Japan gained observer status on the Arctic Council in 2013 and has since strengthened its ties with Iceland through initiatives such as the Arctic Science Ministerial and the first Arctic Circle Tokyo Forum, held in 2023.
Iceland's ambassador to Japan, Hreinn Pálsson, echoed Enomoto's remarks, emphasizing the importance of science diplomacy in bilateral relations.
He also expressed hope that continued cooperation between Japanese and Icelandic scientists would help further strengthen ties between the two countries.
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Author: Mizuki Okada, senior officer at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation
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