I don’t know about y’all, but I’m incredibly excited for this World Series. The Rays and Brewers are both really fun teams, and while neither was the one I was rooting for when the postseason began, they’ve both won my heart to some degree with the way they handled their business so far this October. Ever since the two teams won their spots in the upcoming World Series, I’ve been thinking about how similar they are to each other and to the Royals, and what changes the Royals should be making to be more like them.
Starting pitching matters
There has been a lot of conversation surrounding the playoffs this year about how starting pitchers might be a dying breed. After all, starters have been pitching fewer and fewer innings for years. Then you get to this postseason and the White Sox made it all the way to ALDS Game 5 while using only one pitcher as a starter. The Guardians made it to Game 6 of the ALCS while using only two.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence, however, that the two World Series teams were among the ones who were willing to throw a starting pitcher every single game, even if he wasn’t necessarily the best pitcher available to them. The White Sox raced out to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS on the backs of their relievers but couldn’t keep it going forever. The Guardians decided they’d rather use their exceptionally effective relievers than allow Tanner Bibee to start a single playoff game, and it burned them in the ALCS when all of their relievers were worn out and overexposed. The Padres entered the postseason with the best bullpen in the majors, but they blew two games against the Brewers because they simply didn’t feel confident in any of their starters except Michael King.
The 2014 Royals showed that an elite bullpen performance could get you really far in the playoffs, but one aspect people slept on was that the Royals had competent, though not elite, starting pitching to keep things close for five-plus innings and prevent their relievers from being overworked or overexposed. Who knows how Game 7 of the 2014 World Series might have gone if the Royals had thought to just throw a true bullpen game, but they only got that far because they didn’t try it earlier.
This is actually something people have been discussing since at least 2024, though for some reason teams don’t seem to have taken it into account yet. That article discusses how overusing relievers can have a similar penalty to starters the third time through; ironically, the realization of the “third-time-through-the-order penalty” is what led teams to use their relievers like this in the first place. It sure seems like they’ve swung too hard in the other direction, though. I tend to think letting Tanner Bibee start Game 6 of the ALCS would have led to better results for the Guardians than asking all their best relievers to go out there not just for the third time in the series, but for the third time in three days, likely increasing the familiarity effect.
The lesson from this postseason isn’t “starting pitchers are irrelevant.” Instead, it is “you’d better have and use four competent starters or even the best bullpen will blow up in your face when they have to cover that many innings against the same team.”
Never stop trading
During the ALCS, there was a bit of schadenfreude in the fact that Tampa Bay beat Cleveland with home runs from their two best hitters, Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz, two players the Guardians traded to the Rays. According to FanGraphs, the Rays have the most players on their 26-man roster in baseball who were acquired by trade – the National League champion Brewers were third. Even more interesting was that NLCS MVP Jake Bauers was part of the Guardians’ return for Díaz, and the Guardians DFA-traded him away, too.
The Royals could spend more, and they might be a better team. I’d actually argue that if the Rays and Brewers were willing to even spend half of what the Dodgers do, given how great they are at roster-building, they’d be able to have an even more dominant dynasty than LA has enjoyed. But if the Royals won’t spend more money, they need to follow the Brewers’ and Rays’ leads in this way – make lots and lots of trades.
A couple of weeks ago, I evaluated how both the Brewers and Royals front offices had done at getting appropriate value in their transactions. One aspect I didn’t properly consider was the types of transactions each team performed, though. I evaluated a total of 69 transactions for the Brewers, 41 of those were trades. The Royals made 55 transactions, and 3o of those were trades. Those are fairly similar ratios, but of the 30 trades the Royals made, only 15 were made for guys who might possibly help beyond a season or two. The Brewers made 27 such trades, a much higher percentage. I don’t think it is a coincidence that one of the Royals’ best trades in recent years was the deal that sent Freddy Fermin to San Diego for Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. That trade helped them in the moment, but it also improved their team for the future. That’s exactly the kind of trade the Rays and Brewers do all the time that the Royals haven’t gotten the hang of.
Besides being willing to make bigger trades, the Royals should just be making more trades, period. People will act like the Guardians should have held on to Caminero and Díaz, but it’s not like the Rays or Brewers never make trades that send useful players away. After all, Bauers debuted with the Rays. And the Rays’ ALCS MVP, Freddy Peralta, was traded away by the Brewers earlier this year! To say nothing of how both teams have made trades in the past that sent valuable pieces away without getting anything good in return.
The Rays traded All-Star Tristan Peters to the White Sox for cash. They traded José Cabellero to the Yankees for Everson Pereira, then released him. They traded Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez to the Athletics for three minor leaguers you’ve never heard of. The Brewers traded Tyrone Taylor and Adrian Houser for Coleman Crow. Until these playoffs, Corbin Burnes for D.L. Hall and Joey Ortiz wasn’t looking great. Honestly, the Peralta and Durbin trades aren’t looking great, either. But neither team lets the fear of failure stop them from doing more trades and recovering from the missteps.
The trades the Royals have made smack of fear in comparison. The Royals need to be bolder and be willing to be wrong if they ever want to have a chance of being gloriously right.