On October 20, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and representatives of European countries in Oslo, where he presented his proposals for a peace settlement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Speaking at a press conference after the talks, Zelensky said Ukraine and the West had “clear ideas about how to achieve peace.” One was to arrange a three-way meeting between President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Zelensky himself “to resolve issues that only leaders can address.”
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who also attended the meeting, said the talks had yielded “real progress on two levels”: in the short term and “in the broader context.” He said the discussion focused on key issues: air defense, energy facilities, and the possibility of a partial ceasefire.
Sources told Axios that participants in the Oslo meeting focused on developing a framework agreement to end the war that they could propose to Russia.
Axios reported that the parties made “meaningful progress” and reached “a full mutual understanding at the working level” on the next steps. Sources also told Axios that Jared Kushner, the U.S. special envoy for peace and the president’s son-in-law, again asked Ukraine at the meeting to stop striking Russian oil refineries.
The following day, Witkoff flew to St. Petersburg, where he met with Putin. Afterward, Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said Moscow was ready to resume three-way talks involving the United States in November.
The Oslo meeting drew little enthusiasm in Kyiv, a source close to the Ukrainian president’s office told Meduza.
The main problem is that Russia continues to insist on recognition of its control over occupied Crimea and the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions — including areas it does not control.
“For us, this [new round of U.S. talks with Ukraine and Russia] changes nothing, because there’s a consensus here: Ukraine will not give up its territory,” Meduza’s source said:
We’re ready for a ceasefire along the line of contact right now — with security guarantees from the United States [a bilateral agreement between Washington and Kyiv modeled on Article 5 of the NATO treaty]. But Putin doesn’t want to freeze the conflict along the line of contact.
In an October 21 interview with Fox News, Zelensky said he was ready for a ceasefire along the current front lines, provided that further negotiations followed and Ukraine received security guarantees. He was responding to a journalist’s question about a possible peace agreement that would freeze the current front lines and leave “75% or more” of the country’s territory under Kyiv’s control.
In early October, Russia and the United States reached a deal on Russian diesel fuel supplies to U.S. and global markets. In the middle of the month, sources told The New York Times that the Trump administration had proposed to Ukrainian and European officials, including Zelensky, that they resume trade in Russian gas as part of negotiations to end the war. The newspaper reported that Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are promoting the idea.
Meduza’s source declined to say how Kyiv had received the proposal.
In mid-October, the Ukrainian military command reported that drones equipped with Starshield, the military counterpart to Starlink terminals, had begun losing their connections at speeds above 160 kilometers per hour. The military said this had caused several operations to fail.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said that “this cannot be a coincidence and is linked to the current political situation,” referring to the conflict between Zelensky and Trump. The Wall Street Journal reported that relations between Zelensky and Trump were at their “lowest point” since their Oval Office clash in early 2025.
According to Meduza’s source, Starlink in Ukraine does indeed start malfunctioning at 120 kilometers per hour and “no longer works” above 130 kilometers per hour, even though drones need to fly that fast to strike military targets. He declined to explain why this was happening.
In mid-October, Kyiv said that during several Russian strikes, the Ukrainian military had received no attack data from the U.S. satellite system that provides early warning of ballistic missile launches. The United States gave Ukraine access to the system at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Meduza’s source close to Zelensky’s office confirmed that, at one point, Kyiv had not been receiving U.S. intelligence on “some Russian missile launches.” “Now we can see everything again,” he said.
He said Trump was trying to pressure Ukraine through these actions.
Western media previously reported that the idea of restricting connections based on speed came from SpaceX owner Elon Musk, who proposed it to Trump. Musk denied this.
Meduza’s source close to the president’s office believes that “indirectly, all of this [Trump’s policies] is pushing Zelensky toward a soft capitulation”:
The Americans are pushing Kyiv to accept that it’ll inevitably have to do this, so it’s better to discuss how to [capitulate] at less cost to Ukraine, in exchange for some sort of security guarantees, rather than discuss Ukraine’s terms [for a ceasefire]. They’re offering us investment, reconstruction… It’s hard to say where all this will lead.
Russian comments on American efforts to restart negotiations have also reflected some uncertainty. After Putin’s meeting with Witkoff, a correspondent for Vesti asked Ushakov whether the war was nearing an end. His answer could be read two ways: “I don’t know how much closer we’re getting, but that’s where things are heading.”
Meduza’s source in Kyiv said Russia had stepped up its attacks on Ukraine as news of the talks emerged:
In places that used to be relatively quiet — Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Lutsk — attacks have become about 10 times as intense. They’re sending 20 to 30 jet-powered drones there every day. They’re already hitting central Kyiv with Iskander missiles carrying cluster warheads.
The Russians will probably step up their terror attacks on the government district. They’re already hitting bridges. It’s already like Aleppo. For some reason, the Russians keep believing this will get results and Zelensky will agree to terms that amount to capitulation. But people won’t accept that, and neither will the government.
After Witkoff’s departure, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles on the night of October 21–22. One person was killed in Kyiv and more than 20 were injured. Commenting on the attack, Zelensky said it showed there had been no “real changes in [Russia’s] attitude toward everything that is happening.”
Ukraine, in turn, launched drone strikes on several Russian regions that same night, including Moscow and the surrounding Moscow region. Two people were injured in New Moscow.
Meduza’s source believes that despite U.S. pressure and Russia’s intensified attacks on Ukraine, Zelensky “will keep trying to salvage something from even the worst situation until the very end” — “that’s just who he is.”
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of Ukraine’s Penta Center for Applied Political Studies, sees the resumption of talks as a positive development in itself: “Bad negotiations with little chance of success are better than no negotiations.”
Fesenko called Russia’s agreement to resume three-way meetings a tactical move and “a continuation of its efforts to court Trump.” In his view, Russia’s willingness to participate in this format does not, in itself, mean there is any substantive discussion yet about ending the war:
If the Trump administration keeps using its current approach (continually making concessions to Russia upfront and trying to draw it into peace talks with more gifts — what Witkoff is doing), this strategy has no chance of success. Unfortunately, it will only fuel the war.
In Fesenko’s view, the main problem with the current negotiations is the lack of “clear signs that Russia is actually ready to negotiate an end to hostilities.” He believes the Kremlin will not engage seriously in negotiations until Moscow understands that it cannot win the war:
Ukraine is short of air defense systems, and Russia’s advantage in ballistic missiles gives it the upper hand in the air war. Putin hopes to break Ukraine this winter by using airstrikes to destroy its energy infrastructure and economy. If Ukraine makes it through the winter, and if the imbalance in the air war can be reduced at least somewhat, the chances of real negotiations will improve.
Commentary from Meduza’s Explainers desk
Ukraine and Russia have long accused each other of having no real desire to end the war. Both Kyiv and Moscow insist that the war can end only on their own terms.
- Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said he is ready to negotiate only after Ukrainian forces leave the Donbas — either voluntarily or as a result of a Russian military operation. The Kremlin has not publicly stated its official position on the territory of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which are listed as Russian regions in Russia’s Constitution. However, according to leaks to Western media, at the Anchorage summit, Putin and Trump discussed dividing the two regions along the current line of contact. “Once Ukrainian troops leave the territories they hold, the fighting will stop. If they don’t leave, we will achieve this by force,” Putin said in November 2025. The Kremlin’s official position has not changed since then.
- Kyiv insists that the only possible basis for a ceasefire is freezing the current lines of control along the front, including in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Zelensky believes Russia will not be able to seize by force all the territory that remains under Ukrainian military control.
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Elizaveta Antonova, with contributions from Meduza’s Explainers desk