Breakenridge: With commanding result in, now up to premier to fulfil promise to 'move on'

When Premier Danielle Smith took to the airwaves in May to announce that Albertans would be casting ballots on our province’s future in Canada, she framed it as a chance to put the issue to rest.

As Smith put it: “It’s time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on.”

Well, we had the vote. The lopsided victory for the Remain side makes it clear what the will of Albertans is. So, yes, we should now be able to move on.

Whether we do, though, remains an open question.

Separatists will point out that one-in-four voted for independence, representing hundreds of thousands of Albertans. Of course, the separatist argument in the late stages of the campaign was that independence wasn’t actually on the ballot.

Instead, even those opposed to separatism were assured they could safely vote for Option 2 and send a strong message to Ottawa.

As it turns out, many Albertans did see merit in that approach. A recent poll from Abacus Data — whose work on the referendum pegged the final result quite closely — found that only one-third of respondents supporting Option 2 actually wanted to create an independent, separate country.

Others were drawn to the idea of sending a message or creating leverage, or just the idea of letting Albertans have a direct and formal say in a second referendum. The choice of how to word this ballot question gave separatists a chance to sell the idea of a safe protest vote, and their side still got thumped.

Monday’s result also allows the premier to make a credible case that the issue is much more settled today than it would have been otherwise. There was certainly no shortage of frustration on the federalist side for allowing this vote to proceed in the first place.

It’s also hopefully enough of a rebuke to ensure that the governing United Conservative Party doesn’t allow itself to be eaten from within by the separatist movement. As the prospect of a victory on Monday grew fainter, separatist leaders increasingly turned their focus to the UCP and their hopes of ousting the leader and pushing the party to embrace a more overtly pro-independence position.

It should be clear now what sort of electoral dead-end lies down that path. The UCP already handed the NDP a political gift by allowing this vote to proceed in the first place. It would be a much larger political gift if the UCP were to somehow take the overwhelming rejection of separation as a cue to double down on the idea.

We should now, as the premier previously proposed, put the issue to rest.

There is still a danger lurking in the background, however.

Option 2 on Monday’s ballot asked whether the government should “commence the legal process” to allow for a binding separation vote. Remember, though, the original petition effort from Stay Free Alberta was an effort to force a binding constitutional question on separation.

After that petition was blocked by a court decision, the government filed an appeal. In its own way, that decision to appeal was the commencement of a legal process.

We know the separatists gathered enough signatures (under Smith’s lowered threshold). If a successful appeal unlocks that petition from legal limbo, what happens then?

Albertans have spoken quite loudly that they don’t want such a vote.

The premier told us we had a chance to put this issue behind us and move on. We’ve enthusiastically embraced that opportunity.

It’s now up to Smith and her government to deliver on that promise.

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com