Have some sympathy for Capitol Hill's leaders next year, no matter who wins in November.
😩 Why it matters: The next Congress promises a thousand different ways to be miserable. And three of the big four leaders are expected to receive a two-year contract extension, with guaranteed long nights, bad days and short tempers.
- The fate of the fourth — Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) — rests on the outcome of the election.
🤕 The best (and worst) news for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is that the job as party leader is likely his if he wants it, even if Republicans lose the majority.
- Like his first two years as leader, Thune's next two will be marked by constant second-guessing, or worse, from a president who commands his party, crushes his opponents and questions Thune's courage.
- Then there's the GOP base. MAGA influencers are seething over Thune's reluctance to try to nuke the filibuster and jam through a voter-ID bill.
Between the lines: Four of Thune's confidants — DHS Secretary (and former senator) Markwayne Mullin and Sens. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have left or are leaving the building.
- A fresh class of House conservatives will arrive in the Senate. They're likely to want to move fast and break things.
The intrigue: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) has not announced a third attempt to lead his party, but plenty of Republicans on the Hill suspect he will. Scott notably backtracked on his support for Thune in September.
- But Thune doesn't have to worry about his number two. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — who would be the top contender if Thune stepped down — has doubled down on his support.
⚠️ Thune's relationship with Speaker Johnson has been rocky throughout the year. If Republicans lose the House majority, Thune could find himself coordinating and strategizing with a new House leader.
- Most of Johnson's colleagues don't expect him to stay if the House flips. However, in the campaign's final weeks, Johnson has been playing Hamlet, publicly entertaining his next moves.
- With or without Johnson on stage, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) are widely viewed as top contenders.
😎 Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) appears secure in his job as Democratic leader. His longevity in the role — or the Senate — is not.
- He's up for reelection in 2028 and could face a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Many Democrats expect him to retire.
- One possible result: YOLO Chuck, a 76-year-old majority leader with an angry base and ambitious colleagues, but nothing to lose.
🤬 One urgent task for Schumer is to get on the same page as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), whose progressive members have some strong feelings about Schumer and the Senate.
- Jeffries and Schumer took dramatically different approaches to funding the government in March 2025. These differences would be harder to manage in the majority, especially if Jeffries struggles to maintain discipline within his ranks.
- However, Jeffries — like Schumer and Thune — doesn't appear to have any formidable challengers for party leader.
- Jeffries could face many of the same headaches Johnson did — a wing of his party that ran on anti-establishment principles and whose votes cannot be counted on.
What we're watching: Trump and Schumer have a complicated relationship. But the president has indicated he sees Jeffries as someone he could work with.