The Salobo copper and gold mine located at Carajás, Pará. (Image courtesy of Vale.)
Mining companies, policymakers and investors need to build resilience and create value in an uncertain future to meet growing demand while decreasing environmental impact in the industry, a new Systemic and ERM report suggests.
Today’s complex global mining and metals systems are showing signs of disruption and fragmentation, as supply is affected by weather and labour disruptions, permitting takes years and geopolitical tensions rise.
The report, funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and developed in collaboration with International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), goes over three possible scenarios for the mining industry through 2050. They show how different approaches to governance, technological innovation and international co-operation could reshape mineral supply and mining’s environmental footprint.
“It feels like the distant future, but it is the decisions we make in the next few years which will shape where we mine and how we mine in 2050,” a mining and metals company representative told researchers. “A lot is at stake for our industry and for the communities and ecosystems where we operate. There is no time to waste.”
The report aims to help leaders explore how the forces reshaping mining and metals could affect the industry’s ability to meet society’s needs responsibly over the decades ahead, ICMM said.
Three scenarios
Systemic and ERM didn’t develop these scenarios to tell companies what to do, but rather to give them tools to test the resilience of their strategies, identify their influence and understand how today’s decisions will dictate mining’s future for decades to come, no matter what scenario plays out in real life.
The report’s most favourable scenario, called Flywheel, envisions a globally connected mining industry where technological advances, transparent markets and stronger governance help meet mineral demand with fewer environmental and social costs.
Under this model, governments and companies collaborate to diversify supply chains, accelerate innovation and improve resource efficiency. Streamlined permitting would shorten project timelines without weakening environmental protections, while miners demonstrating verified, low-impact performance could benefit from price premiums and cheaper financing.
The potential gains are substantial. By 2050, the scenario projects 18% higher copper demand alongside 35% lower water consumption, 18% fewer mines and 25% less deforestation.
Achieving those outcomes, however, would require sustained international co-operation and a relatively stable geopolitical environment, conditions that remain uncertain as countries increasingly prioritize domestic mineral security.
The report draws on more than 20 expert interviews, a survey of 16 industry leaders, and a literature review of major trends and constraints. Researchers examined how industry grow, technological innovations and governance decisions could impact economic, environmental and social outcomes.
At the opposite extreme, the Fracture scenario describes a world divided into competing regional blocs, where governments prioritize national security and economic development over international collaboration.
The report suggests that the world would split into rival, security blocs that would have more state intervention, fewer new technologies and would impact market health, the environment and the society.
This would result in 30% more copper needed globally, 70% more water consumption, 25% more mines and 40% more deforestation by 2050, according to the report. Independent miners would struggle and private investors would pull back due to limited innovation, stalled productivity and strict state control.
Between those outcomes lies Space Race, a scenario in which competition among major powers accelerates technological development while dividing mineral markets along geopolitical lines.
Much like the 20th-century contest for space exploration, governments would direct investment towards strategic advantages, supporting innovation that strengthens domestic supply chains.
That competition would result in a complex international landscape for companies and investors to navigate. Some regions would deploy advanced technologies to reduce mining impacts, while others would expand more damaging extraction practices to secure resources.
Although copper demand would match the Fracture scenario, deforestation would decline 3% by 2050, which shows that technological progress could deliver environmental benefits even without broad international alignment.
Writing their own future
While the scenarios presented by the report give an idea of what could happen, they don’t necessarily predict the future. Better or worse scenarios could take place depending on how companies, governments and investors choose to build mining’s next era.
The report does urge decision-makers to anticipate competing pressures and develop strategies that remain effective under different economic and political conditions.