A Canadian west coast oil pipeline and coalitional oil security in a Taiwan contingency

The US-Israeli war with Iran is changing and potentially upending prior assumptions about oil security. With the Middle East facing a period of substantial uncertainty, oil importers are reassessing the reliability of old arrangements and considering new opportunities. Accessing existing and incremental oil volumes from Western Canada via the Pacific Link pipeline is one such opportunity, especially for the democracies of East Asia. While contracting oil volumes from Western Canadian production would face hurdles, especially on economic grounds, it could also bring important benefits. Canada is a stable democracy deeply aligned with other rule-of-law countries, including in East Asia; its export volumes from Western Canada can enter the Pacific Ocean without passing through potentially vulnerable maritime choke points; and shipping times from Western Canada to the region are significantly faster than other geographies.

If the East Asian democracies—Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea—decide that Western Canada’s Pacific Link project is meritorious, they should consider investing in coker retrofits at existing refineries to intake Canada’s heavy oil sands crude, which requires specialized equipment for processing. This approach would pose limited cost and technical risks and could be completed in about four to five years. In addition, some refineries in the East Asian democracies, especially in South Korea, could intake existing exports of Canadian crude with little-to-no retrofits. South Korean refineries are already increasing Canadian imports, albeit from a low base; these efforts should be accelerated.

Finally, when weighing the desirability of Canadian or other types of non-Middle Eastern crude, East Asian democracies—especially Taiwan and Japan—should revise prior energy security assumptions that are no longer operable. While there was traditionally a strong logic to optimizing economic efficiency, the rising risk of an energy quarantine or blockade demands that Taipei and Tokyo emphasize oil security over cost. Whether from Canada or elsewhere, non-Middle Eastern crude can provide insurance and reliability, allowing Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei to hedge against potential continued instability emanating from the Persian Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb.

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Image: April 1, 2026, Kaohsiung City, Sanmin District, Taiwan: Oil storage tank facilities at a CPC Corporation plant. (Credit Image: © Cheng-Chia Huang/ZUMA Press Wire)