President Donald Trump is confronting signs of discontent within his own coalition, with fewer than half of Republican voters approving of his handling of living costs in a new AP-NORC poll released this week.
In the survey conducted less than four weeks before Election Day, only 44 percent of GOP voters approve of his record on prices, while 54 percent back his management of the wider economy.
At the same time, 58 percent of GOP voters want either substantial change or complete upheaval in how the United States is run.
Democrats may be better positioned to capitalize, with about three-quarters calling it extremely important to vote compared with roughly six in 10 Republicans.
A DNC spokesman said: “Republicans' chances in the midterms are a sinking ship. There’s no overcoming Donald Trump's record-low approval ratings or that Trump and Republicans drove up gas and grocery prices with their reckless tariffs and never-ending war with Iran.
"Meanwhile, Democrats are focused on lowering costs, rooting out corruption, and making healthcare affordable. Democrats are fighting for every American and we're not taking any vote for granted.”
The AP-NORC findings also place the economy and cost of living at the top of voters’ priorities.
It threatens to complicate the GOP’s closing midterm message as Democrats report greater urgency about voting.
Republican candidates must defend the party’s record while appealing to voters who remain loyal to the GOP but are dissatisfied with conditions under its leadership.
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White House spokesman Davis Ingle has pushed back against the suggestion that Republican dissatisfaction could weaken the party, describing Trump as its “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator.”
Ingle told Newsweek in a previous emailed statement that Trump remained committed to preserving the GOP’s congressional majorities and argued that his record on taxes, prescription drugs, border security, crime, energy and employment gave voters a clear choice in November.
Newsweek emailed the White House for further comment on Friday morning.
“Republicans remain laser-focused on winning and protecting and expanding President Trump's majorities is the only goal we have this cycle,” Republican National Committee National Press Secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Newsweek in an emailed statement.
“We're thinking outside the box to fight the typical midterm precedent, including pouring resources into battleground races to tout this administration's historic achievements and give Republicans a boost to defy history in November.”
Why It Matters
Midterm elections are often decided by motivation as well as persuasion.
With Democrats showing an enthusiasm advantage and affordability dominating voters’ concerns, Republican dissatisfaction could matter in closely contested House and Senate races.
The president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections since 1946, meaning Republican discontent could compound an already difficult historical environment for the GOP.
The Numbers at a Glance
- Forty-five percent of Republican voters want substantial change in how the country is run, while 13 percent favor complete upheaval.
- Seventy-four percent of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
- Democrats lead Republicans on preferred control of both chambers of Congress.
- Independents are markedly more negative toward the GOP than toward the Democratic Party.
- Neither major party has secured broad public approval.
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Republicans Face Problems Beyond Prices
Signs of Republican unease extend beyond the domestic economy.
Only 69 percent of GOP voters approve of the President’s handling of foreign policy as the war with Iran enters its eighth month, showing softer support than presidents typically seek within their own party.
Nationally, crime remains one of his better subjects, but even there his approval reaches just 45 percent. Immigration and crime also rank below health care and the conflict with Iran among the electorate’s priorities.
Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican from near Davey, Nebraska, said her frustration was rooted in Washington’s failure to deliver results.
“I’m kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done,” she told The Associated Press. “Nothing’s changing.”
Her comments illustrate a subtler threat to GOP candidates.
These voters may not migrate to the Democratic Party, but Republican congressional majorities could still be endangered if loyal supporters become less willing to campaign, donate, or cast a ballot.
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Living Costs Dominate The Election
Economic pressure sits at the center of the national mood.
Eighty-five percent of registered voters describe the economy as one of the most important considerations in the election, while 84 percent say the same about the cost of living.
Those concerns cut across party lines and largely overshadow subjects on which Trump performs better. Health care is a priority for 69 percent, the war with Iran for 64 percent, and immigration and crime for 45 percent apiece.
Overall, 79 percent disapprove of the president’s performance on living costs.
His job approval stands at 36 percent, with 64 percent disapproving, according to AP-NORC’s summary of the findings.
DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, said she would continue supporting GOP candidates but criticized the economic conditions under the administration.
“Everything’s going up,” she said, also questioning the President’s tariffs. “It’s making this country look bad.”
That reaction illustrates why affordability is particularly difficult for Republicans.
The issue is both a national political judgment and a personal calculation made at supermarkets, gas stations and household kitchen tables.
Democratic Voters Look To Mobilize
Democrats hold a 13-point advantage over Republicans on the strongest measure of voting intensity, although overwhelming majorities in both parties regard participating as at least very important.
For some Democrats, the national mood is producing practical efforts to turn political optimism into votes.
Ryan Longbrake, a 52-year-old technology marketing worker from Columbus, Ohio, said he had taken steps to ensure that his wife and two college-age daughters would participate.
“I believe that there is change on the horizon and there is an excitement within our party,” he said, pointing to Democratic momentum in Ohio’s races for governor and the U.S. Senate.
His account offers a measure of the organizational challenge facing both parties: enthusiasm matters only if campaigns and voters convert it into completed ballots.
National polling cannot determine the result of individual contests, which will also be shaped by candidates and local political conditions.
But family-level mobilization of the kind described by Longbrake could become significant in closely divided states and districts.
Democrats Lead On Congressional Control
Forty-seven percent of voters want Democrats to control the House, while 46 percent prefer Democratic leadership of the Senate.
Republican control attracts 38 percent for each chamber; 15 percent remain uncertain.
The undecided group leaves room for movement, but the present division puts the governing party on the defensive.
Independent voters add to that pressure. About two-thirds view the Republican Party negatively, compared with roughly four in 10 who say the same about Democrats.
Michael Russo, a 51-year-old unaffiliated voter from Texas, described Republican control as “a nightmare,” but offered little endorsement of the alternative.
“I’m not confident they’re going to do anything if they get into power,” he said of Democrats.
His skepticism points to the election’s central dynamic. Democrats may benefit from opposition to Trump and congressional Republicans without having generated widespread confidence in their own program.
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Neither Party Is Popular
Four in 10 voters have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, while approximately half regard it unfavorably.
Republicans stand at 36 percent favorable, with about six in 10 holding a negative opinion.
Vice President JD Vance does not fare better than the president on personal popularity: each has a 35 percent favorable rating.
That wider dissatisfaction suggests the midterms are developing less as an endorsement of Democrats than as a potential verdict on Republican governance.
What To Know About the Poll
AP-NORC conducted the nationwide survey from October 8 to 12 among 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel.
The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for the full adult sample and 4.2 points for registered voters.
Subgroup margins were wider: 6.4 points for Republicans, 5.8 points for Democrats and nine points for independents.
Interviews were completed online and by telephone in English and Spanish. Sampling error is only one potential source of uncertainty, and national findings do not translate directly into congressional seats.
What Happens Next
The remaining question is whether Republican discontent produces defections, abstentions or eventual support for GOP candidates despite unease over prices.
With 18 days remaining, the answer will determine whether Trump’s problems stay personal or become his party’s electoral burden.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Paul Donnelley.