Brazil may turn right-wing again — this is why South Africans should care

On 25 October, Brazilians will return to the polls to decide whether President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will remain in office or whether the country will take another turn to the right under Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. 

With recent opinion polls indicating a statistical tie, much hangs in the balance. What is clear, however, is that the consequences of this election will extend well beyond Brazil’s borders.

For South Africa, the stakes are particularly high. Only two months ago, the governments of both countries met in Pretoria for the eighth session of the Brazil-South Africa Joint Commission, reaffirming their commitment to strengthening bilateral cooperation and advancing a common agenda for the Global South. Speaking at the meeting, International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola stressed the importance of the partnership in a political climate where multilateralism faces critical challenges.

Beyond the economic opportunities arising from closer cooperation between Africa’s and Latin America’s largest industrial economies, there are other critical reasons that South Africans should care about the prospect of another Bolsonaro presidency.

A weakened Global South

Brazil and South Africa have long been strong drivers of multilateralism. As regional powers, both have consistently pushed for a fairer international order, demanding reforms to global institutions that remain largely dominated by Western powers, such as the UN Security Council. 

Although these commitments have not always translated into consistent foreign policy positions, Brazil under Lula has been an important partner for South Africa. Their cooperation through BRICS, the G20 and other multilateral platforms, in particular, has been instrumental in promoting greater independence for developing countries.

A Bolsonaro presidency could reverse much of this progress. During his father’s administration, Brazil turned away from its traditional commitment to South-South cooperation, favouring close ideological ties with Donald Trump and the US.

Flávio Bolsonaro has embraced much of his father’s political agenda. His victory would likely pull Brazil closer to Washington, weakening its position as an independent voice in global affairs.

This is especially troubling at a time when the Trump administration has shown restraint in using economic, diplomatic and, at times, military means to force other countries into line. Both Brazil and South Africa have been targets of such pressure, making their cooperation all the more important.

If Brazil moves closer to Washington, South Africa could find itself increasingly isolated and more vulnerable to American bullying.

The implications extend to Africa more broadly. Lula has traditionally prioritised stronger relations with African countries, recognising Brazil’s historical and cultural connections to the continent and promoting cooperation across the South Atlantic. 

Under Jair Bolsonaro, Africa largely disappeared from Brazil’s foreign policy priorities. A return to this approach would weaken, if not implode, an important bridge between Africa and Latin America.

A blow to Palestine

Under Lula, Brazil has been an outspoken critic over Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Crucially, in September 2025, it formally joined South Africa’s genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice.

The Bolsonaro family, by contrast, has close ties to conservative evangelical Christian movements that see support for Israel as both a religious duty and a political priority. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, in fact, Brazil became one of Israel’s closest allies in Latin America.

There is every indication that Flávio intends to revive that relationship. He has promised to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has openly backed his candidacy and personally congratulated him on his first-round electoral performance.

For Netanyahu, a Bolsonaro victory would be a major diplomatic gain at a time when Israel faces growing international condemnation.

For South Africa and the Palestinian people, it would mean losing an influential ally in the struggle for justice and accountability.

The future of democracy and human rights

Both Brazil and South Africa emerged from deeply unequal and authoritarian political systems with a shared vision that intended to deliver more than political rights for all citizens. Their democratic constitutions, for instance, promised to address the injustices of the past and build societies founded on equality, dignity and human rights.

In their international engagements, both countries have consistently recognised that demands for a fairer global order must go hand in hand with commitments to democracy, economic redistribution, social justice and non-discrimination.

Today these principles are increasingly under attack, including within BRICS itself. The bloc’s expansion has brought into the fold countries with diverging political systems and troubling, to say the least, records on democratic freedoms, women’s rights and the rights of LGBTI people. This raises the difficult question of whether BRICS can credibly claim to champion a fairer world while remaining largely silent about repression and discrimination within its own membership.

Brazil and South Africa have been among the countries best positioned to push for a more progressive vision of South-driven transformation. A Bolsonaro victory would make this considerably harder, leaving South Africa further isolated in defending a project of global affairs rooted in human rights and democratic accountability.

The danger is that BRICS becomes little more than a club of resource-rich countries, united by commercial interests and ideological opposition to the West, but lacking any meaningful commitment to the transformation of the global order.

This outcome would benefit no one but the ruling classes and economic elites, in the North and South alike. The likes of Trump and Netanyahu would be delighted to see BRICS stripped of its broader political ambitions.

More than a Brazilian election

For South Africa, the Brazilian election is therefore about more than the future of an important bilateral partner. It is also about whether the Global South can continue building an alternative international order that is not simply more multipolar, but more democratic, equitable and committed to human rights. On 25 October, Brazilians will decide their country’s political future. South Africans have good reason to pay attention. DM