SOUR RELATIONS: Ramaphosa Warns South Africa Must Prepare for Possible Exit from US’s Duty-Free Trade Programme
JOHANNESBURG — South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said Monday that the country must prepare for the possibility of being removed from the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the duty-free trade programme for eligible sub-Saharan African nations, as bilateral relations continue to deteriorate.
Speaking at a media briefing, Ramaphosa noted that the US Congress has approved South Africa’s continued inclusion in the programme, which has been extended until the end of 2028, but that final approval rests with the executive branch under President Donald Trump.
“Congress has decided that we should be kept in AGOA. What now remains is the executive,” Ramaphosa said. “And by the way, so that I prepare our people for this, if we ever have a choice, we are not the first and only country to be taken out of AGOA. And I believe we will not be the last.”
He stressed the need for readiness while urging calm: “I need as president to prepare us if it ever happens. So we should not go out and jump off tall buildings and think that this is the end of the world.” At the same time, he acknowledged that exclusion would have a “devastating” impact on jobs and the economy.
South Africa is AGOA’s largest beneficiary. The programme provides preferential, duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.
Automobiles rank as the country’s second-largest export earner to the United States after precious metals; under AGOA, South African vehicles enter the US market free of customs duties.
Industry group Naamsa has previously estimated that 86,000 jobs are directly linked to the agreement at vehicle manufacturers, rising to about 125,000 when suppliers are included.
Ties between Pretoria and Washington have worsened under the Trump administration. The United States has cut aid, expelled South Africa’s ambassador, imposed visa restrictions on certain South Africans, and pursued a resettlement programme for white Afrikaners citing alleged persecution — claims South Africa firmly rejects as false.
US officials have also raised concerns about South Africa’s policies and trade barriers.
The US president reviews AGOA eligibility annually. Any removal requires 60 days’ notice; to take effect on 1 January, an announcement would need to come by early November.
Previous exclusions, such as those of several countries under the Biden administration effective 2024, provide precedent.
Ramaphosa said the government is actively seeking alternative markets, including through engagement with China and other partners, and that he and Deputy President Paul Mashatile have travelled internationally to identify new opportunities.
Officials are also in discussions with their US counterparts, though the outcome remains uncertain.
Loss of AGOA access would hit exporters in the automotive, agricultural, textile and other sectors, raising costs and potentially leading to significant job losses.
South Africa has emphasised diversification of trade partners to mitigate such risks.